You're complaining about my sources when you yourself are quoting from Sinodefence? This is surreal.
sinodefence is not perfect, but better than anything you are using. And yes when it comes to PLA related stuff. I have read infinitely more articles than you have. So, I can make a good judgment of what is a good source and you obviously haven't shown the ability to do so.
Do you have any other sources that imply Russia would eventually allow completely domestic production of the Su-27? Sinodefense is not an independent source. Its articles are written by posters on SDF who themselves gleaned info off websites and other sources. If you can furnish those sources, your points may receive more credibility. Until then, I rate Sinodefense FAR lower than Russian media sources or FAS. Far far lower.
actually, you are wrong about that part, Russian newspaper are wrong all the time. I will give you a list of simple facts they got wrong:
1) they claimed that China bought su-33s, which they didn't
2) they claimed that China bought Zubr off them, which they didn't
3) they claimed that China was getting a ToT and local production of Mi-171, which they didn't
4) same with backfires
5) they got a bunch of stuff wrong regarding IL-76
6) they got AL-31FN deals for J-10 wrong multiple times
And those are simple facts that they can get directly off the Russian companies dealing with PLA. Now, when it comes to opinions like this one, they obviously only take the side of the Russian companies. And then, you factor in their natural lack of journalistic skill set, their reports are not the most trustworthy out there.
FAS on the other hand, what do they even know about PLA? You look at their website, how many years do you think they are behind in PLA orbat and stuff like that?
read their section on J-10
This is laughable
sinodefence hasn't been updated that much, but it's managed by one guy, dong feng. And generally speaking, the stuff up there are fairly reliable (although, I still trust my sources better). They get used by a lot of people.
I said 200 for the sake of argument. What actually happened was that China suspended the contract after about a hundred kits arrived from Russia. The contract stipulated licensed production based on both Russian and domestic content. Thus in fact producing ANY J-11's after China terminated the agreement constitutes a violation of the previous contract and a theft of intellectual property. Whether a potential lawsuit can be successfully prosecuted or where the case could be tried are completely irrelevant to whether a violation has actually occurred, or similarly, whether intellectual property was stolen. Russia counted on its own industries continuing to supply parts for all 200 aircraft under contract, as part of the contract. At this point, there are probably NO parts on the J-11B being supplied by Russians.
according to the latest kanwa interview with sukhoi, the parts for J-11As are still getting delivered. China had already paid for the royalties, the kits and ToT. Whether they choose to use the kits for new J-11Bs are up to China.
Now, they have little regards for the Russian parts, so they don't use them. But maybe the Russians should actually try to offer better parts instead of crying foul.
As for the 200 itself, unless China caves into heavy Russian pressure, I seriously doubt it has any intention to give any further money to Russia for any aircraft produced above 200, as flimsy and as mostly irrelevant as this number already is.
We don't know what's going to happen after 200. They might say to the Russians that j-11s are so different from su-27s that they don't need to give royalties or they might choose to pay Russians. What ever happen, we won't know for another 4 to 5 years at the current production rate.
The plain language of the text clearly states Russia is to supply 30% of the parts. If you want to somehow insinuate that it doesn't HAVE to be the case, YOU need to provide separate credible sources which state that Russia doesn't actually have to supply that amount.
as i said, the parts are still getting supplied, they are not getting used.
Who said China paid for all the technology? Russia required 30% of the parts to be Russian. At least those parts were not part of any TOT. I'm not even sure much of the rest of the 70% was transferred so much as self-learned. I believe that Russia probably anticipated that China would eventually be able to self-produce many of the parts and built that into the contract, but kept the 30% as a minimum to continue to provide profit for its own domestic industries.
they paid for all of the parts already. They paid for the technology, all the blue prints and such. They paid for the Russian engineers to come down and help them with domestic production. They just weren't capable of producing all the parts in the beginning, so they were supplied with parts. But that doesn't mean they didn't pay for the technology.
