China demographics thread.

[quantumlight]

The video makes the assumption of a homogeneous workforce across age groups in terms of productivity. The reality is different.

As stated previously most of China's elderly lives in rural areas and small towns. Many just transitioned out of subsistence farming and doesn't participate as much in Chinas economic circulation like that of the younger more educated and more productive population. The education for that cohort is quite low, with most having just elementary education. The largest cohort after the seniors has median education of middle school. When these people retire China's economy would have transitioned to have less opportunities for these people as there would be different skills match. Retirement cost of living isn't as expensive relatively speaking compared to developed nations.

There's a reason we see China's space agency engineers being mostly in their 20s and 30s, these educated people to fill those positions didn't exist previously in such numbers. Lead engineers for many civil projects like bridge building were also of similar age. That large educated cohort just didn't exist in decades past. The retiring cohort is not an exact match to the younger cohort as we would assume in a developed nation.

The large cohort that the video talked about supplied much of the cheap labor in factories and construction. This dividend will decrease but not totally cease as there's still many low income households. Anti poverty campaign seeks to end absolute poverty but not eliminate the low income population. Production of many low end tradable goods that can't be automated will likely move overseas, especially to ASEAN nations.

The video also referenced the decline of Japan's share of global manufacturing percentage. Although true, this highlights criticisms made by Chinese officials and members of the PLA years ago, despite massive growth in China's share of global manufacturing it still lacked ability to produce many core technologies that will act as chokepoints. You can produce all the textiles, toys, assembly (which counts as manufacturing) in the world but it wont support a modern economy by itself. Developed nations faced a decline in share of global manufacturing but they still hold the chokepoints of a modern society. The less educated elderly population in China aren't the ones producing those key technologies by in large.

I see China's economy continue to progress for the next few decades as it climbs the value chain and securing core technologies and offshoring of low end production. The demographic issue will become more impactful once the average Chinese education level approaches that of developed nations. China should seek to abandon limits to urban fertility since there are also many who choose to not have kids at all that needs to be balanced out.

China should have a state sponsored version of udemy that gives all courses online for free... open domain all knowledge and learning materials to lower the barriers to knowledge and deflate the higher education bubble. China would do well to democratize and subsidize education at all levels for everyone always accessible everywhere..

For starters how about online semiconductor courses to get the next generation of students and researchers on the right path... sure beats wasting time playing Dyson Sphere Program or the mandatory English classes

 

[OppositeDay]

I'm in agreement with Ma Qianzu (马前卒) from Guan Videos (search for "睡前消息" on YouTube for his videos) that given the modern urbanized production method and lifestyle, family is obsolete as a social institution. Government should get ready to socialize the caring and education of children. Indeed, urgent research should be done on artificial wombs so government can socialize reproduction as well.

Ideally, the government should select the best sperms and eggs to grow smart, healthy and beautiful babies. Then educate them in controlled environments. High quality data and even randomized controlled educational experiments could be gathered/conducted in such environments. Therefore we're looking at a potential huge increase in education quality. In such a scenario, overall 90% of the population could be consist of smart and well-educated people with good habits. 700M such people will be far more productive compared to 1.4B "normal" population while use far less resources.

 

[quantumlight]

I'm in agreement with Ma Qianzu (马前卒) from Guan Videos (search for "睡前消息" on YouTube for his videos) that given the modern urbanized production method and lifestyle, family is obsolete as a social institution. Government should get ready to socialize the caring and education of children. Indeed, urgent research should be done on artificial wombs so government can socialize reproduction as well.

Ideally, the government should select the best sperms and eggs to grow smart, healthy and beautiful babies. Then educate them in controlled environments. High quality data and even randomized controlled educational experiments could be gathered/conducted in such environments. Therefore we're looking at a potential huge increase in education quality. In such a scenario, overall 90% of the population could be consist of smart and well-educated people with good habits. 700M such people will be far more productive compared to 1.4B "normal" population while use far less resources.

Once you open that pandora box, lets take step further... only 10% of males are needed to sustain human species, the 50% male female ratio is itself not optimum, historically only 10% of men ever got to mate... monogamy is not natural...

Keep the top 10% high quality men around to mate with the women

And yes to genetic adjmentation, America will do it, if Chinese doesnt China will get left behind again

US already ahead in mRna, cispr, etc

 

[HybridHypothesis]

Its funny that people think adding MORE education will solve things when it will do the opposite.

The more education CREDENTIALS everyone has to have, the more money you have to spend to raise your kid. Optimize your high school, middle school, and now kindergartens...

Is it any wonder why the middle class doesnt want to have kids if all this money and time is required of them?

 

[quantumlight]

Its funny that people think adding MORE education will solve things when it will do the opposite.

The more education CREDENTIALS everyone has to have, the more money you have to spend to raise your kid. Optimize your high school, middle school, and now kindergartens...

Is it any wonder why the middle class doesnt want to have kids if all this money and time is required of them?

There is no reason education cannot be free in the digital age. Surely China gov can produce all online courses and host it online at no costs.

Higher education bubble is the scam and knowledge and education needs to be decoupled from credential/certification process in terms of costs (certs should be free as well) or diploma mill money printing machines

 

[HybridHypothesis]

There is no reason education cannot be free in the digital age. Surely China gov can produce all online courses and host it online at no costs.

Higher education bubble is the scam and knowledge and education needs to be decoupled from credential/certification process in terms of costs (certs should be free as well) or diploma mill money printing machines

The POINT of education is that it is scarce. We should have a small number of PhDs going to the truly smart ppo, and have everyone w/ some basic literacy and math skills.

The reason why higher education is a scam is because many people think college actually makes you smarter, therefore giving everyone college will make everyone smarter and more productive citizens. Those ppo are quite dumb, and the results are clear to anyone who can see.

There is no way to decouple education from certifications since the point of a cert is to provide proof of competency in an easy manner. Its much like currency in that manner in that you will never "abolish" currency, you will only shift what token is used to represent the money (the source of value).

There is only ensuring the integrity of the currency by preventing its devaluation. Inflating market by giving everyone easy certs is the equivalent of printing billions of dollars w/ no corresponding productivity gains.

**************

that isnt to say that printing money / education cannot be beneficial, as if a credit expansion is used productively for the generation of new goods , then inflation does not occur.

In this sense, does adding more education (currency) improve the ability of smart ppo to work productively (money) ?

At this stage, we are working w/ details that are best left to ppo on the ground.

 

[OppositeDay]

Its funny that people think adding MORE education will solve things when it will do the opposite.

The more education CREDENTIALS everyone has to have, the more money you have to spend to raise your kid. Optimize your high school, middle school, and now kindergartens...

Is it any wonder why the middle class doesnt want to have kids if all this money and time is required of them?

Some people are now advocating cutting primary and secondary education in China from 12 years total to 10 years. A lot of time in that 12 years are wasted on preparing students for high school/university entrance exams. Cut a basic undergraduate degree to 3 years. Also make elite institution post-graduate only. So everyone who meets a minimal high school performance standard can go to a "normal" university for 3 years (and graduates at 19). Take exams on university level knowledge to get into elite schools for postgraduate degrees.

 

[HybridHypothesis]

Some people are now advocating cutting primary and secondary education in China from 12 years total to 10 years. A lot of time in that 12 years are wasted on preparing students for high school/university entrance exams. Cut a basic undergraduate degree to 3 years. Also make elite institution post-graduate only. So everyone who meets a minimal high school performance standard can go to a "normal" university for 3 years (and graduates at 19). Take exams on university level knowledge to get into elite schools for postgraduate degrees.

Thats what I would do. Cut out the English training as well, nobody is going to use it.

And if the average Chinese person is consuming enough English media to actually make good use of it, then that is another problem.

Drawing on my own college experience, the justification for having 4 years instead of 3 years is to make a person "well rounded". But the point of going to university these days is to obtain technical certifications to work in STEM fields. Only way the cost / benefit works out. What is the point of wasting 2 extra years and thousands of dollars on that?

You can see this with all the humanities students becoming "radical socialists" as they realize they got scammed. The peasants and craftsmen have entered the university and are partaking in elite behaviors (cultivation of a wide range of educational experiences in order to rule properly) without the actual hope of becoming elites. Classical inflation.

 

[quantumlight]

The POINT of education is that it is scarce. We should have a small number of PhDs going to the truly smart ppo, and have everyone w/ some basic literacy and math skills.

The reason why higher education is a scam is because many people think college actually makes you smarter, therefore giving everyone college will make everyone smarter and more productive citizens. Those ppo are quite dumb, and the results are clear to anyone who can see.

There is no way to decouple education from certifications since the point of a cert is to provide proof of competency in an easy manner. Its much like currency in that manner in that you will never "abolish" currency, you will only shift what token is used to represent the money (the source of value).

There is only ensuring the integrity of the currency by preventing its devaluation. Inflating market by giving everyone easy certs is the equivalent of printing billions of dollars w/ no corresponding productivity gains.

**************

that isnt to say that printing money / education cannot be beneficial, as if a credit expansion is used productively for the generation of new goods , then inflation does not occur.

In this sense, does adding more education (currency) improve the ability of smart ppo to work productively (money) ?

At this stage, we are working w/ details that are best left to ppo on the ground.

90% of my American university experience could have been replaced with powerpoint slides... now in this age when we have immersive videos and simulations ( learn by doing, training, etc) I think China can provide a free universal education baseline available to everyone at no costs. It costs next to nothing to host these online digital courses and make them available to all... one copy or a billion copies of a video course costs virtually the same

There is no reason education through online videos in the era of 5G should ever cost any Chinese a single penny

Just because its available for free doesnt mean everyond will ultilize it but at least its available

Eventually I see China shifting to UBI society, but one stage at a time. However artificial scarcity of knowledge is never going to help.

 

[steel21]

I'm in agreement with Ma Qianzu (马前卒) from Guan Videos (search for "睡前消息" on YouTube for his videos) that given the modern urbanized production method and lifestyle, family is obsolete as a social institution. Government should get ready to socialize the caring and education of children. Indeed, urgent research should be done on artificial wombs so government can socialize reproduction as well.

Ideally, the government should select the best sperms and eggs to grow smart, healthy and beautiful babies. Then educate them in controlled environments. High quality data and even randomized controlled educational experiments could be gathered/conducted in such environments. Therefore we're looking at a potential huge increase in education quality. In such a scenario, overall 90% of the population could be consist of smart and well-educated people with good habits. 700M such people will be far more productive compared to 1.4B "normal" population while use far less resources.

While you're at it with those sperms and eggs can you sprinkle it with some hotness? Just some C cups, and 6 pack abs, don't need to go crazy. Hopefully, its not too much to ask....... Lol