China demographics thread.

[Hendrik_2000]

Japan is not a country to be held in high regard. Yes they are "rich", but look at their people.

Japanese probably work more hours than slaves did in the past centuries.

I doubt that any Chinese wants to emulate that. There are already growing noices against the '996' system in China

China will take its own road. Japan will take its own. We will see who will prevail at the end

There are thousand of Chinese living in Japan now and go have a look at Japanese language school before the pandemic. Most of the student are Chinese wanting to go to school in Japan. There are hundred of dating agency between China and Japan. Most of labor intensive industry like fishing or canning are still have worker from China

 

[AndrewS]

If you are talking about what the situation was like back in the 80s, the population difference was more like 1.5x.

The working population age was also closer:



America's population carried on increasing exponentially, whereas Japan's stagnated.

It's not the only reason why Japan is the way it is now, and immigration is only a temporary solution to demographic problems (immigrants get old too). But America has been able to keep growing over the past 40 years while Japan is frozen in time.

You're using an index graph which isn't relevant.

Yes, I know back in the 1980s, the US had a population which was approximately 2x larger.
The argument still stands.

What were the chances of the average Japan person being 2x richer than the average American?
And then the Japanese economy would only be equal to the USA.
For Japan to overtake the USA as a superpower, would have required the average Japanese person to be at least 3x richer than the average American.

Once a country catches up, it is difficult to grow fast because you are at the technological frontier.
Plus it's straightforward for other developed countries to copy whatever you do and to keep up.

 

[voyager1]

You're using an index graph which isn't relevant.

Yes, I know back in the 1980s, the US had a population which was approximately 2x larger.
The argument still stands.

What were the chances of the average Japan person being 2x richer than the average American?
And then the Japanese economy would only be equal to the USA.
For Japan to overtake the USA as a superpower, would have required the average Japanese person to be at least 3x richer than the average American.

Once a country catches up, it is difficult to grow fast because you are at the technological frontier.
Plus it's straightforward for other developed countries to copy whatever you do and to keep up.

Then I assume you agree to my previous post about the theory of 2 axis of growth

Given that Japan is going for 1 axis of growth vertically which is increasing people's income then it will (and has already) hit a 'soft' ceiling where it becomes increasingly difficult to increase the income

However China due to having 2 axis of growth:
1st Horizontally having many people
2nd Vertically increasing people's income

So by having a basic gdp calculation of:

People * People's Income = GDP (potential)
Then you see that China has gotten a tremendous opportunity for "easy" growth. So why should China deliberately limit its 1st axis of growth which is the population?

Also lets keep in mind that very soon that 1 axis of horizontal growth will become 1 axis of horizontal DECLINE due to the population aging and shrinking workforce

Now China has transitioned from:
People(Growth) * People's Income(Growth)

To:
People (Decline) * People's Income (Growth)

So China has a structural declining GDP factor to constantly counteract, cancel out and outgrow. This is all bad news


Ofc I am just talking about the most basic drivers of GDP growth and I am neglecting other factors. See India for example...

 

[Abominable]

You're using an index graph which isn't relevant.

Yes, I know back in the 1980s, the US had a population which was approximately 2x larger.
The argument still stands.

What were the chances of the average Japan person being 2x richer than the average American?
And then the Japanese economy would only be equal to the USA.
For Japan to overtake the USA as a superpower, would have required the average Japanese person to be at least 3x richer than the average American.

Once a country catches up, it is difficult to grow fast because you are at the technological frontier.
Plus it's straightforward for other developed countries to copy whatever you do and to keep up.

I wasn't stating my opinion. If I were around in the 70s or 80s I think it would have been pretty optimistic for Japan to even catch up to American GDP per capita. America had (and still has) a stockpile of wealth from slavery and exploiting other nations whereas Japan had to start virtually from scratch since WW2.

Back then the Japanese car manufacturers were doing well in every major market. Consumer electronics were a new and rapidly expanding industry and it was the forte of many Japanese companies. I guess some people back then believed it would carry on growing forever. They were wrong.

By the way, GDP per capita doesn't always translate to wealth on an individual level. A country like South Africa has a higher GDP per capita than Ukraine, Indonesia, Egypt etc. Yet the average South African is much poorer than any of these.

 

[sinophilia]

So you would choose a waning country instead of a strong ever growing countr?

Yes there are problems but the Japan you admire so much has stagnated and cant move forward anymore.

(Still hasn't reached its 2009 GDP...)
View attachment 72422

So what you are saying is China could either have a declining population or hundreds of millions Indians (the only population large enough to seriously affect Chinese demographics).

Excuse my language, FUCK THAT. Would rather China end up like Singapore over replacing her with Indians. Anyway, these aren't the only options. There is another. Chinese start having more kids.

Maybe focus 100% of efforts on that before giving up and saying China should turn into an American urban city or an Indian slum.

 

[voyager1]

So what you are saying is China could either have a declining population or hundreds of millions Indians (the only population large enough to seriously affect Chinese demographics).

Excuse my language, FUCK THAT. Would rather China end up like Singapore over replacing her with Indians. Anyway, these aren't the only options. There is another. Chinese start having more kids.

Maybe focus 100% of efforts on that before giving up and saying China should turn into an American urban city or an Indian slum.

Ah yes very intelligent post.

Where did I say to have Indians immigrate into China lol

I have also repeatedly said that pop increase should be made by having more kids but go tell Xi that.

He is still talking about National Property Tax for a decade now and he still doesnt care (make real change, not talk) about the collapsing China's demographics

So why make jokes to me? I am just a nobody, better go and direct your jokes to Xi who is still talking about things since 2010 and nothing has been implemented to "start having more kids"

 

[AndrewS]

Then I assume you agree to my previous post about the theory of 2 axis of growth

Given that Japan is going for 1 axis of growth vertically which is increasing people's income then it will (and has already) hit a 'soft' ceiling where it becomes increasingly difficult to increase the income

However China due to having 2 axis of growth:
1st Horizontally having many people
2nd Vertically increasing people's income

So by having a basic gdp calculation of:

People * People's Income = GDP (potential)
Then you see that China has gotten a tremendous opportunity for "easy" growth. So why should China deliberately limit its 1st axis of growth which is the population?

Also lets keep in mind that very soon that 1 axis of horizontal growth will become 1 axis of horizontal DECLINE due to the population aging and shrinking workforce

Now China has transitioned from:
People(Growth) * People's Income(Growth)

To:
People (Decline) * People's Income (Growth)

So China has a structural declining GDP factor to constantly counteract, cancel out and outgrow. This is all bad news


Ofc I am just talking about the most basic drivers of GDP growth and I am neglecting other factors. See India for example...

Yes, I already have the same model.

I also fully expect China to allow unskilled immigration in the future when

1. China becomes high-income
2. And its population starts to decline

And this immigration will mainly come from places which are relatively easy to assimilate like in ASEAN.
But I still think it's only going to be 50 million at the very most.

 

[AndrewS]

By the way, GDP per capita doesn't always translate to wealth on an individual level. A country like South Africa has a higher GDP per capita than Ukraine, Indonesia, Egypt etc. Yet the average South African is much poorer than any of these.

True. But the wealth does exist. It's then a decision on how this should be distributed.

South Africa is an outlier as it has a legacy of rich whites whilst blacks were deliberately kept poor for many generations.

 

[Xizor]

What about the Gender ratios?

Aren't there 34 million more males compared to females in China? How can the society / country meet this challenge?

What I believe is that women from ASEAN and even Siberia marry into China. But I don't know the details or if in fact, this happens.

 

[hashtagpls]

What about the Gender ratios?

Aren't there 34 million more males compared to females in China? How can the society / country meet this challenge?

What I believe is that women from ASEAN and even Siberia marry into China. But I don't know the details or if in fact, this happens.

Vietnamese women are more than happy to offer themselves up to Chinese men, as they do in taiwan and korea.