China demographics thread.

[Hendrik_2000]

Nah. China doesn't have a history of subjugation of foreign races. But OK.

But maybe just maybe that frame of mind can change because we see what happened in India when their own leader didn't do a thing to alleviate the suffering of the people
You see because the leader come from their own ethic doesn't necessarily mean they are doing a good job. In most cases they oppress their own people and only interested in enriching themselves. Because they lack compassionate culture and social duty and responsibility to the people.

East Asia is fortunate that they have this Confucian heritage that emphasize duty and responsibility of office holder to the people Maybe I should bring article and posted on this forum because there seem lack of knowledge on this subject

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Man, Xinhua videos are so boring. I cant force myself to watch them till the end

Are all the people working there retirees from Mao's era...

Fact are boring and so do Science and Technology But without it you can't plan the future . She just cited fact. And I don't see any merit in worrying about China's demography It is not the just the number that is important But the quality of people. Without doubt China make progress on the latter . Improving the education and moving people to urban setting. do you know that just moving people to city they improve the productivity by tens of fold. Not to mention improving education. Too many people with too little education will only increase the social divide and tinder for social instability.

People does not know in 1949 China urbanization rate is only 10% Yup 90% of Chinese people live miserable life in country side depending on subsistence farming. the economic output of urban folk is tenfold than their country cousins It reflect in standard of living.

All china need to do is set aside Hukou system which is clearly outdated and and unfair system . It is relict from "poor China" when the country can't build school, infrastructure and social welfare to take care of billion migration from country side

 

[voyager1]

All china need to do is set aside Hukou system which is clearly outdated and and unfair system . It is relict from "poor China" when the country can't build school, infrastructure and social welfare to take care of billion migration from country side

China has already abolished the Hukou system for cities with population 3m (4m?) and below.

 

[Deleted member 15887]

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Sources tell Reuters that Beijing to encourage more childbearing under the current policy framework, before fully lifting birth restrictions over the next 3-5 years. They say removing birth restrictions [in the immediate future] could have unintended consequences: a limited impact on city dwellers, who are reluctant to have more children due to high costs, while rural families could expand faster, adding to poverty and employment pressures, the sources said. “If we free up policy, people in the countryside could be more willing to give birth than those in the cities, and there could be other problems,” said a policy source who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. The sources are involved in policy discussions but not the final decision-making process. [Short-term policies to address increasing childbirth in the immediate future involve "comprehensive policies" targeting high housing, medical and education costs.]"

I somewhat agree with the assessment regarding the contradiction between urban and rural childbirth trends, and the need to prioritize boosting urban birth rates. After all, the TFR for rural China is 2.04, basically at replacement rate, so rural childbirth trends are not a primary concern for the central government, at least for the immediate future.

Take this with a grain of salt, however, as Reuters acknowledges these sources are only in policy discussions, not decision-making. The Global Times reports that a full lifting of birth restrictions may come as early as later this year or early next year.

 

[voyager1]

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Sources tell Reuters that Beijing to encourage more childbearing under the current policy framework, before fully lifting birth restrictions over the next 3-5 years. They say removing birth restrictions could have unintended consequences: a limited impact on city dwellers, who are reluctant to have more children due to high costs, while rural families could expand faster, adding to poverty and employment pressures, the sources said. “If we free up policy, people in the countryside could be more willing to give birth than those in the cities, and there could be other problems,” said a policy source who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. The sources are involved in policy discussions but not the final decision-making process. Short-term policies to address increasing childbirth in the immediate future involve "comprehensive policies" targeting high housing, medical and education costs.

I somewhat agree with the assessment regarding the contradiction between urban and rural childbirth trends, and the need to prioritize boosting urban birth rates. After all, the TFR for rural China is 2.04, basically at replacement rate, so rural childbirth trends are not a primary concern for the central government, at least for the immediate future.

Wy does it matter though. China is already committed to urbanisation. After 5-8 years these rural pops will become urban population and so on

Yes, there may be some impact on the short term (for 3-4 years?) but after that it will even out

 

[Hendrik_2000]

China has already abolished the Hukou system for cities with population 3m (4m?) and below.

But not for 2nd and 1st tier city Plus there is so many requirement to settle in both cities where the job are

 

[Team Blue]

There will still, presumably, be rural communities. 3-5 years also seems overly optimistic given around 35% of the population is still rural. Even if they managed to shift to urbanization similar to other countries in that amount of time, that's still about 15% rural population which could mean negative outcomes for hundreds of millions.

Not saying it'll happen, but I think it's a fair concern.

 

[gadgetcool5]

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Sources tell Reuters that Beijing to encourage more childbearing under the current policy framework, before fully lifting birth restrictions over the next 3-5 years. They say removing birth restrictions [in the immediate future] could have unintended consequences: a limited impact on city dwellers, who are reluctant to have more children due to high costs, while rural families could expand faster, adding to poverty and employment pressures, the sources said. “If we free up policy, people in the countryside could be more willing to give birth than those in the cities, and there could be other problems,” said a policy source who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. The sources are involved in policy discussions but not the final decision-making process. [Short-term policies to address increasing childbirth in the immediate future involve "comprehensive policies" targeting high housing, medical and education costs.]"

I somewhat agree with the assessment regarding the contradiction between urban and rural childbirth trends, and the need to prioritize boosting urban birth rates. After all, the TFR for rural China is 2.04, basically at replacement rate, so rural childbirth trends are not a primary concern for the central government, at least for the immediate future.

Take this with a grain of salt, however, as Reuters acknowledges these sources are only in policy discussions, not decision-making. The Global Times reports that a full lifting of birth restrictions may come as early as later this year or early next year.

This is really vague and doesn't say anything. It seems to be a bunch of people just arguing against lifting birth restrictions.

 

[Xizor]

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Sources tell Reuters that Beijing to encourage more childbearing under the current policy framework, before fully lifting birth restrictions over the next 3-5 years. They say removing birth restrictions [in the immediate future] could have unintended consequences: a limited impact on city dwellers, who are reluctant to have more children due to high costs, while rural families could expand faster, adding to poverty and employment pressures, the sources said. “If we free up policy, people in the countryside could be more willing to give birth than those in the cities, and there could be other problems,” said a policy source who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. The sources are involved in policy discussions but not the final decision-making process. [Short-term policies to address increasing childbirth in the immediate future involve "comprehensive policies" targeting high housing, medical and education costs.]"

I somewhat agree with the assessment regarding the contradiction between urban and rural childbirth trends, and the need to prioritize boosting urban birth rates. After all, the TFR for rural China is 2.04, basically at replacement rate, so rural childbirth trends are not a primary concern for the central government, at least for the immediate future.

Take this with a grain of salt, however, as Reuters acknowledges these sources are only in policy discussions, not decision-making. The Global Times reports that a full lifting of birth restrictions may come as early as later this year or early next year.

Pretty reasonable. Seems like China, wisely, is not ready to engage in the blind pursuit of population growth to satisfy the "Supply-Demand" dynamics of the modern capitalist economy.

Its often cringe inducing to read many articles from the west bemoaning the lack of humans to consume goods to satisfy "growth". Humans are merely seen as cattles.

City dwellers must be encouraged to have more kids. A reform in housing and creation of suburbs with larger sq. Ft is important.

I don't think huge investments for European style SSN can be accommodated with the current level of growth.

 

[Deleted member 15887]

This is really vague and doesn't say anything. It seems to be a bunch of people just arguing against lifting birth restrictions.

They weren't arguing against lifting it inherently so much as they were arguing to be cautious about immediately and rapidly lifting restrictions. Their position seems to be "still lift birth restrictions, but ensure policies that allow for a smooth transition to higher birth rates"