China demographics thread.

[Deleted member 15887]

What was Japan's birth rate in the 1980's?

The Japanese were famous for the Salaryman to come home only after midnight, after either working at the office or hanging out with crew a the local karaoke joint.

TFR was something like 1.6-1.8, China's PPP GDP per capita is largely already at what Japan's was in 1980

 

[voyager1]

all the developed world is comfortable with demographic decline (i live in italy whose population included 5 million immigrants is shrinking), china is no exception.

Yep Italy is actually in deep trouble regardign demographics and its economy in general.

don't be too pessimistic though, you guys have Super Mario now for Prime Minister

 

[Phead128]

Guys, when China did nothing about it's population, the West was criticizing: "Surplus of youths, unemployment, overpopulation, finite strained resources."
And when China did do something about it's population, West was criticizing: "Human rights, aging, implosion of demographics, older before rich."

And Guess What? I'd bet a billion dollars that China's strategy of proactive population management will fare better than India's strategy of "hands free, let the population surge." to 1.8 billion by 2050.

And the West will not criticize India for "overpopulation". In fact, the pyramid scheme of ever increasing population to support economic growth (which West doesn't apply to themselves) will favor India (according to Western analyst) while China withers away allegedly. Complete BS.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

Guys, when China did nothing about it's population, the West was criticizing: "Surplus of youths, unemployment, overpopulation, finite strained resources."
And when China did do something about it's population, West was criticizing: "Human rights, aging, implosion of demographics, older before rich."

And Guess What? I'd bet a billion dollars that China's strategy of proactive population management will fare better than India's strategy of "hands free, let the population surge." to 1.8 billion by 2050.

And the West will not criticize India for "overpopulation". In fact, the pyramid scheme of ever increasing population to support economic growth (which West doesn't apply to themselves) will favor India (according to Western analyst) while China withers away allegedly. Complete BS.

Macroeconomic policymaking should never be about pleasing (or angering) other countries.

 

[In4ser]

Watching chinese cities packed with 50 floors residential buildings do you have the impression that a population decline will be a major problem for china?

The problem with demographic imbalance is two-fold. One is the diminished young people to act as labor and demand but the other is more worrying and that is old people who act will increasingly add less and less value while simultaneously becoming a financial drain on resources.

 

[weig2000]

Watching chinese cities packed with 50 floors residential buildings do you have the impression that a population decline will be a major problem for china?

Not now. For China, the concern is not so much about the size of the population but rather the structure of the population. For example, in Japan, population aged 65 or older is a quarter of the total population now, estimated to reach a third by 2050. China is tracking Japan's trajectory now. China' average age is about the same as the US's (~38), with much lower per capita income. With a healthy demographic structure (age & gender), the ideal Chinese population size is probably anywhere between 700 million - 1 billion.

Granted, China still has time and more leeway than Japan given the size of the population. But there is no doubt that there will be some challenges ahead. Better to manage and deal with it now.

 

[KenC]

But one has to take into account that in the case of China, automation play increasingly greater role in economic activities. Farms and factories are requiring increasingly less people with technological advancement and greater educational attainment. Even service industry can be automated. There are already robotic barista and automated supermarket without cashiers in use in China. People are also living healthier and thus retirement age can be increased considerably.

Obviously when China becomes prosperous, China could import labors from nearby countries, most notably the Vietnamese, Filipinos and Burmese.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

But one has to take into account that in the case of China, automation play increasingly greater role in economic activities. Farms and factories are requiring increasingly less people with technological advancement and greater educational attainment. Even service industry can be automated. There are already robotic barista and automated supermarket without cashiers in use in China. People are also living healthier and thus retirement age can be increased considerably.

Obviously when China becomes prosperous, China could import labors from nearby countries, most notably the Vietnamese, Filipinos and Burmese.

Exactly I wouldn't worry too much about declining birth Japan has no problem transition to less children China with their huge population can absorb large guest worker from neighboring country if need be As is now a lot of labor intensive factory already open in the border area attracted by cheaper labor cost. They come in during the day and go back at night . With a little tweak they can allow to temporarily reside in China and work as migrant worker. Providing China treat them well and give a living wages I would think there will be huge interest to work in China. Even now China allow limited number of Philippine nurse, domestic helper and english teacher to work in China

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

Ban shit shows like this.

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[Deleted member 15887]

Not now. For China, the concern is not so much about the size of the population but rather the structure of the population. For example, in Japan, population aged 65 or older is a quarter of the total population now, estimated to reach a third by 2050. China is tracking Japan's trajectory now. China' average age is about the same as the US's (~38), with much lower per capita income. With a healthy demographic structure (age & gender), the ideal Chinese population size is probably anywhere between 700 million - 1 billion.

Granted, China still has time and more leeway than Japan given the size of the population. But there is no doubt that there will be some challenges ahead. Better to manage and deal with it now.

As long as the population pyramid can remain like this for the next 30 years (stabilized population pyramid base), there should be no problem