China demographics thread.

[tokenanalyst]

In my experience with other Chinese friends, who don't have children before 35 just don't want to have children. Raising a child in China is hard.

Given the low inflation, the high home ownership rate and the ban on tutoring. It should be easier to rise children in China than most in the Western world. The Issue in hand is that children consume time and a lot of time for women. So if they have to pick between time for children and time for their careers, they are picking their careers and leaving children for later.

Although is possible to have children late in life, you don't want to be like England where most of the grow in births is from 60 years old men. Which is incredible

 

[Quan8410]

Given the low inflation, the high home ownership rate and the ban on tutoring. It should be easier to rise children in China than most in the Western world

You forgot the extreme competition in China. Tutoring got so popular in the past because Chinese parents absolutely cannot let their children behind. Another reason why my Chinese friends get very reluctant to have children after 35 is because your job security significantly decrease after 35, espescially if you are working in fields like IT or service-based industries.

 

[tokenanalyst]

You forgot the extreme competition in China. Tutoring got so popular in the past because Chinese parents absolutely cannot let their children behind. Another reason why my Chinese friends get very reluctant to have children after 35 is because your job insecurity significantly decrease after 35, espescially if you are working in fields like IT or service-based industries.

It could be, but still think is mostly women globally who are delaying or don't want a lot of children due culture changes related to career advancement and better quality of life.

 

[dirtyid]

IMO TFR simply not resolvable via positive policy.

It has to be extremely punitive not to have children - TFR is collapsing to irrevocably below replacement levels in wealthy muslim countries as well. People in the region have cheap housing, relatively well paying jobs - are religiously traditional - the women want families, have the resources, cultural and the family pressure to, but still end up settling for 1-2 kids for less than >2 TFR. They also have help, like maids and nannies.

I think at some point need to tie inheritence tax and wealth transfer into the mix, i.e. large % wealth/property can only goto direct kids, that scale up with # of kids. If you have 1 kid, max they can inherit is 40%, no properties. 2 kids and 80%, 3 kids and 100%. No kids, and 50% wealth/savings goes back to state redirected towards those with kids. Property gets auctioned off for same purpose. Positive incentives alone not enough, it has to be cripplingly expensive NOT to have kids.

And cripplingly lonely not to be a couple where accidental kids happen. Ban single people from pets, limit screentime with AI waifus/husbandos.

 

[Moonscape]

IMO TFR simply not resolvable via positive policy.

It has to be extremely punitive not to have children - TFR is collapsing to irrevocably below replacement levels in wealthy muslim countries as well. People in the region have cheap housing, relatively well paying jobs - are religiously traditional - the women want families, have the resources, cultural and the family pressure to, but still end up settling for 1-2 kids for less than >2 TFR. They also have help, like maids and nannies.

I think at some point need to tie inheritence tax and wealth transfer into the mix, i.e. large % wealth/property can only goto direct kids, that scale up with # of kids. If you have 1 kid, max they can inherit is 40%, no properties. 2 kids and 80%, 3 kids and 100%. No kids, and 50% wealth/savings goes back to state redirected towards those with kids. Property gets auctioned off for same purpose. Positive incentives alone not enough, it has to be cripplingly expensive NOT to have kids.

And cripplingly lonely not to be a couple where accidental kids happen. Ban single people from pets, limit screentime with AI waifus/husbandos.

And why would your average Joe support those policies?

Regardless of the political system, policies without the support of at least a plurality are unsustainable.

 

[Wrought]

Bloomberg claims that national-level subsidies for children are coming.

China is planning to offer cash handouts to families as an incentive for couples to have children, according to people familiar with the matter, as years of population decline threaten the world’s No. 2 economy. The government is set to provide 3,600 yuan ($503) a year for each child until they turn three under a nationwide initiative starting from 2025, said the people, asking not to be identified as the details are not public.

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[Eventine]

And why would your average Joe support those policies?

Regardless of the political system, policies without the support of at least a plurality are unsustainable.

What’s the use of having a competent authoritarian government if it has to be more populist than a democracy? Even the US can get away with unpopular policies by tricking voters that they have power when they don’t. At times the tragedy of the commons requires a heavier hand and China has to be able to do what other countries can’t if it wants to win the competition.

 

[tankphobia]

What’s the use of having a competent authoritarian government if it has to be more populist than a democracy? Even the US can get away with unpopular policies by tricking voters that they have power when they don’t. At times the tragedy of the commons requires a heavier hand and China has to be able to do what other countries can’t if it wants to win the competition.

At this point it's not even a competition, it's a race to avoid self inflicted implosion like South Korea's coming crash. Comparison will only lead to complacency. If your enemy's demographic collapses, but you delay your own by 10 years, you didn't win, you just lost slower.

 

[manqiangrexue]

In my experience with other Chinese friends, who don't have children before 35 just don't want to have children. Raising a child in China is hard.

Total cultural issue. It's actually much easier raising kids in China due to the community lifestyle, low basic (doesn't include corrupt after school and hobby cultivation classes) education costs and low crime. But the culture of wanting your kid to be the best at everything is what makes it hard, in any circumstance. Westerners are perfectly content to raise their kids to be regular people holding regular jobs and just happy to be living a normal life. Chinese people put everything into 1 kid because that kid just fucking has to be number 1 in his class, coding prodigy in elementary school, piano master at age 9, fluent in 4 different languages, chess grandmaster by age 13, world renown computer scientist with billions of dollars in assets by age 35, all that bullshit. And if things aren't going in that direction, the parents stress out and start yelling at and hitting the kid and the kid stresses out and everyone just wants to kill themselves because hell is better than being mediocre to the Chinese.

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

Bloomberg claims that national-level subsidies for children are coming.

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If its only until the child is 3 years old I would hope if it was 36000 RMB, but better 3600 than nothing. In Poland we have 800 zł for each child per month and that's about 18000 RMB per year until the child is 18 years old. It won't increase a lot births, but it's good help for parents and also meantime a stimulus for consumption.