China demographics thread.

[AndrewS]

@FairAndUnbiased
@ZeEa5KPul

Remember that Trump has just slashed NSF funding, most of which looks like healthcare research.

At the same time, we have media reporting that biotech research in China is far faster and cheaper than in the US.

So it just makes sense for companies (everywhere in the world) to do R&D in China, and then only do the end-stage trials/approvals in the US.

WSJ article below
wsj.com/health/pharma/the-drug-industry-is-having-its-own-deepseek-moment-68589d70

 

[Eventine]

We can actually guess what each country is going to do for their future based on scientific effort. Resources are finite so effort (time and money) goes to whatever the national authorities believe to be the greatest return on investment.

China is clearly betting on silicon and steel while US is betting on bio.

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US has 2x and 4x the index number in biology and health vs China.

China is almost 3x the index number in chemistry and 2x in physics.

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My guess, based on what the publication effort says, China would rather reorganize society than try for a biotech solution.

China can likely catch up to the US in biotech research. As a field, biotech is not driven by ingenuity, just by the amount of money, infrastructure, and people you pour into your medical ecosystem. This does mean brilliant Chinese talent won't make much of a difference, but it also means that the Chinese state can easily scale up efforts if it wanted to. Demographics also help, here. Having 1.4 billion people puts China at an advantage in biotech research, which requires large amounts of human trials, often in quite specific situations.

But again, the demographics challenge isn't about capability; it's about political will and social awareness. It can be solved tomorrow if people decided that having children = high status.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

China can likely catch up to the US in biotech research. As a field, biotech is not driven by ingenuity, just by the amount of money, infrastructure, and people you pour into your medical ecosystem. This does mean brilliant Chinese talent won't make much of a difference, but it also means that the Chinese state can easily scale up efforts if it wanted to. Demographics also help, here. Having 1.4 billion people puts China at an advantage in biotech research, which requires large amounts of human trials, often in quite specific situations.

But again, the demographics challenge isn't about capability; it's about political will and social awareness. It can be solved tomorrow if people decided that having children = high status.

The social side is possible once the pieces are in place: see Communist Romania. You just have to acclimate people to a much more authoritarian government in all ways.

In fact US policies like abortion bans are actual policies from that era, though the effects will likely be less successful due to changes in dating culture. But nothing says Communist Romania is the upper limit of authoritarianism. It can go further.

I would watch North Korea as an experiment. Kim Jong Un even teared up on TV when reading a report that North Korean fertility rate fell below replacement to 1.8. They have all the social tools needed.

 

[GOODTREE]

China eases marriage rules to encourage more couples to say "I do"​

Source: Xinhua
Editor: huaxia
2025-04-09 19:18:16

Newlyweds Ma Yuxuan and Cai Yang pose for a photo on a wedding bus in Qingdao, east China's Shandong Province, Dec. 9, 2023. (Xinhua)

BEIJING, April 9 (Xinhua) -- China has revised its marriage registration rules, reducing paperwork and giving couples more flexibility to choose where to register their union, as part of a wider push to encourage more young people to tie the knot.

The new regulations, the first revision since the marriage registration ordinance was enacted in 2003, will take effect on May 10, 2025.
Under the new rules, mainland couples will only need their identification cards and a signed declaration affirming they are not currently married and are not closely related by blood within three generations to register their marriage. Previously, they also had to present their household registration books.

The new regulations also lift restrictions on where couples can register their marriage, which was previously limited to their places of permanent residence.

The change is expected to save time and reduce costs, particularly for the growing number of Chinese citizens who live and work away from their registered hometowns.

One such couple, Ms. Zhang from Inner Mongolia and Mr. Wang from Shandong, have spent years working in Jiangsu. When they decided to marry years ago, they had to travel back to Wang's hometown to complete the paperwork, a trip that cost nearly 2,000 yuan (about 277.5 U.S. dollars) and required them to take three days off work.

Experiences like theirs were common under the previous system. According to the national census, 493 million people in China were living apart from their registered hometowns as of 2020. More than 70 percent of this non-resident population were aged between 15 and 35.

The shift in regulations came amid a decline in marriage rates in China. According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, 6.1 million couples registered their marriage in 2024, down from 7.68 million the previous year.

Experts have attributed the decline to a shrinking pool of people of marriageable age, shifting views on relationships, and the rising costs associated with starting a family.

Many young adults are now choosing to delay marriage until they feel financially and emotionally prepared, a trend mirrored market-driven societies such as Europe, North America and Japan, where traditional views on marriage have become more flexible.
In response to these changes, local governments across China have introduced a range of incentives to foster a newlywed-friendly society.

The eastern province of Zhejiang extended its paid marriage leave from three to 13 days, while the city of Lyuliang in north China's Shanxi Province now offers a 1,500 yuan incentive to women who marry at or under the age of 35.

These efforts align with broader goals, as increasing the number of newlyweds is often seen as an important factor in boosting the birth rate. As one of the world's most populous countries, China is facing profound demographic challenges due to its rapidly aging population.

In response, the government has rolled out a series of supportive policies, including enhanced childbirth services, expanded child care systems, and greater support in education, housing, and employment.

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[FairAndUnbiased]

China eases marriage rules to encourage more couples to say "I do"​

Source: Xinhua
Editor: huaxia
2025-04-09 19:18:16

Newlyweds Ma Yuxuan and Cai Yang pose for a photo on a wedding bus in Qingdao, east China's Shandong Province, Dec. 9, 2023. (Xinhua)

BEIJING, April 9 (Xinhua) -- China has revised its marriage registration rules, reducing paperwork and giving couples more flexibility to choose where to register their union, as part of a wider push to encourage more young people to tie the knot.

The new regulations, the first revision since the marriage registration ordinance was enacted in 2003, will take effect on May 10, 2025.
Under the new rules, mainland couples will only need their identification cards and a signed declaration affirming they are not currently married and are not closely related by blood within three generations to register their marriage. Previously, they also had to present their household registration books.

The new regulations also lift restrictions on where couples can register their marriage, which was previously limited to their places of permanent residence.

The change is expected to save time and reduce costs, particularly for the growing number of Chinese citizens who live and work away from their registered hometowns.

One such couple, Ms. Zhang from Inner Mongolia and Mr. Wang from Shandong, have spent years working in Jiangsu. When they decided to marry years ago, they had to travel back to Wang's hometown to complete the paperwork, a trip that cost nearly 2,000 yuan (about 277.5 U.S. dollars) and required them to take three days off work.

Experiences like theirs were common under the previous system. According to the national census, 493 million people in China were living apart from their registered hometowns as of 2020. More than 70 percent of this non-resident population were aged between 15 and 35.

The shift in regulations came amid a decline in marriage rates in China. According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, 6.1 million couples registered their marriage in 2024, down from 7.68 million the previous year.

Experts have attributed the decline to a shrinking pool of people of marriageable age, shifting views on relationships, and the rising costs associated with starting a family.

Many young adults are now choosing to delay marriage until they feel financially and emotionally prepared, a trend mirrored market-driven societies such as Europe, North America and Japan, where traditional views on marriage have become more flexible.
In response to these changes, local governments across China have introduced a range of incentives to foster a newlywed-friendly society.

The eastern province of Zhejiang extended its paid marriage leave from three to 13 days, while the city of Lyuliang in north China's Shanxi Province now offers a 1,500 yuan incentive to women who marry at or under the age of 35.

These efforts align with broader goals, as increasing the number of newlyweds is often seen as an important factor in boosting the birth rate. As one of the world's most populous countries, China is facing profound demographic challenges due to its rapidly aging population.

In response, the government has rolled out a series of supportive policies, including enhanced childbirth services, expanded child care systems, and greater support in education, housing, and employment.

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This should've happened 10 years ago. Stupid paperwork bullshit with no value added.

 

[gadgetcool5]

This should've happened 10 years ago. Stupid paperwork bullshit with no value added.

China eases marriage rules to encourage more couples to say "I do"​

Source: Xinhua
Editor: huaxia
2025-04-09 19:18:16

Newlyweds Ma Yuxuan and Cai Yang pose for a photo on a wedding bus in Qingdao, east China's Shandong Province, Dec. 9, 2023. (Xinhua)

BEIJING, April 9 (Xinhua) -- China has revised its marriage registration rules, reducing paperwork and giving couples more flexibility to choose where to register their union, as part of a wider push to encourage more young people to tie the knot.

The new regulations, the first revision since the marriage registration ordinance was enacted in 2003, will take effect on May 10, 2025.
Under the new rules, mainland couples will only need their identification cards and a signed declaration affirming they are not currently married and are not closely related by blood within three generations to register their marriage. Previously, they also had to present their household registration books.

The new regulations also lift restrictions on where couples can register their marriage, which was previously limited to their places of permanent residence.

The change is expected to save time and reduce costs, particularly for the growing number of Chinese citizens who live and work away from their registered hometowns.

One such couple, Ms. Zhang from Inner Mongolia and Mr. Wang from Shandong, have spent years working in Jiangsu. When they decided to marry years ago, they had to travel back to Wang's hometown to complete the paperwork, a trip that cost nearly 2,000 yuan (about 277.5 U.S. dollars) and required them to take three days off work.

Experiences like theirs were common under the previous system. According to the national census, 493 million people in China were living apart from their registered hometowns as of 2020. More than 70 percent of this non-resident population were aged between 15 and 35.

The shift in regulations came amid a decline in marriage rates in China. According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, 6.1 million couples registered their marriage in 2024, down from 7.68 million the previous year.

Experts have attributed the decline to a shrinking pool of people of marriageable age, shifting views on relationships, and the rising costs associated with starting a family.

Many young adults are now choosing to delay marriage until they feel financially and emotionally prepared, a trend mirrored market-driven societies such as Europe, North America and Japan, where traditional views on marriage have become more flexible.
In response to these changes, local governments across China have introduced a range of incentives to foster a newlywed-friendly society.

The eastern province of Zhejiang extended its paid marriage leave from three to 13 days, while the city of Lyuliang in north China's Shanxi Province now offers a 1,500 yuan incentive to women who marry at or under the age of 35.

These efforts align with broader goals, as increasing the number of newlyweds is often seen as an important factor in boosting the birth rate. As one of the world's most populous countries, China is facing profound demographic challenges due to its rapidly aging population.

In response, the government has rolled out a series of supportive policies, including enhanced childbirth services, expanded child care systems, and greater support in education, housing, and employment.

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This is a great policy. Marriage incentives may be even more important than birth incentives, since marriage is a very good predictor of birth. Cultural change is what's more important however. Young people should consider getting married as patriotic, providing social status, and an indicator that you are winning in life.