Exactly. Each time the latest fertility or marriage stats are released and they are even lower than the last, the gov does absolutely nothing to raise alarm bells but instead goes into overdrive to convince people why it's not so bad lol. I really think they want a sub-500 million population.
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
Maybe deception, looking at some of the warmongers in the west they are kind of accepting that they can't invade China or beat it militarily. So their last copium is "demographic" collapse we might try again in the 22nd century.
For the millionth time, 1 billion population or 700 million or even 500 million population in itself doesn't need to be bad. (though a billion person domestic market is always better than a 0.5 billion people market) But what is definitely catastrophic is any change happening at a pace of tens of percent of decrease within mere decades. China halving from 1.4 billion to 0.7 billion in less than 100 years (possibly as little as 70 years) brings catastrophic consequences for the federal budget, pensions, health care, taxes and so on. If the same change happened over 500 years - that'd be much more manageable.
Currently China makes up 17.5% of the humans (1.4bn/8.0bn). What would be interesting to know is given demographic projections of all countries, what will the percentage be in the year 2100. I mean, if China still has 17.5% or more of the humans, then everything is still alright innit?
The total births worldwide in 2023 was 134 million. Of those 9 million were in China, or 6.7% of the total. So yeah, China is headed for a spectacular fall, but the only caveat is that the Anglo World + Western Europe is also very low.
The main question for China is not whether it can maintain a large share of the world population in the future (it can't) but whether it can survive at all in the long run or will it eventually be overrun by mass immigration once the population crash becomes too acute. You already see countries like South Korea and Japan opening up for more foreigners. A secondary question is how fast or slow China's population decline will be. In a relative sense, if it can be slowed down somewhat, China will be able to keep its position among world nations for longer.
Yikes, that no good. I found this graph
It looks like China's population went off on different tangent altogether in 1949. What happened then to make population growth increase? Can we make same conditions again?
Yikes, that no good. I found this graph
It looks like China's population went off on different tangent altogether in 1949. What happened then to make population growth increase? Can we make same conditions again?
Conditions will not be replicate IMO.
All countries experienced a demographic boom when an agricultural industrial economy requiring manual labor coincides with lower maternal and infant mortality from medicine and energy infrastructure.
At that point marginal cost of having a child is low, child per capita investment is low, but payoff is rapid, age 14-18 rather than 22-30.
- "marginal cost of having a child is low" - the State provides free prenatal hospital care, free healthcare for children, free education, free sundries for children, guaranteed maternity leave with job at end for 1 year, pay grandparents extra state pension if they look after grandklds.
- "child per capita investment is low" - the State can lower taxes paid by the household depending on how many kids there are. If you got 3 kids, you pay no taxes of any kind period.
- payoff is rapid, age 14-18 - lower age of adulthood, allow children to start attending (free) university from 14 or gainful employment. Any income from children transferred to parents free of tax.
This will cost the State an arm and a leg but depends if you think the demographic problem is a crisis or not.