China demographics thread.

[Eventine]

Like I said before those number are way off.

Even then, China TFR just a few years ago was like what? 1.8. that why these predictions makes no sense. I think the recent fall was due more the Covid restrictions, is even possible that TRF increase in the coming years due low housing and food prices, so if the next 5 years the TRF increase from 1.24 to 1.8 due low prices, all the sudden the predictions change?

In 2010 you would have say he same about Hungary when the TFR was 1.20. now is higher.

But I said before if the situation become extreme that threaten China as a country they will likely force motherhood or adopt measures like banning contraceptives or taxing the childless or pressuring women to pursue motherhood instead of careers.

TFR can fall drastically due to generational effects. The TFR calculation is:

5 * (births/women 15-19, ..., births/women 45-49)

In other words, it is a population weighted sum of births/women in various age groups.

This number can drop suddenly if, for whatever reason, a follow-up generation isn't having as many children as earlier generations. So, for example, if women over 40 all actually had three children back when they were 30-35, but stopped once they hit 40, that would not show up in TFR, because only births are counted. To maintain the same TFR, women who are 30-35 today would have to be having the same amount of children, or another generation would have to make up for it.

If the current generation is delaying children until much later, then TFR could drop suddenly, because the older generations will have been "done" with having children, while the current generation is yet to have them. This could be why China suffered such a severe drop after 2017 as a generation of women is delaying marriage & children for education.

But, whether that is the case or not, sudden recoveries of TFR in East Asia is not known. It didn't happen in Japan or South Korea or Taiwan. It's not likely to happen in China without a revolution in policy. This is due to the education obsession in East Asia, where people are competing for ever more education, not less.

 

[sanctionsevader]

Nowhere in the developed world is returning to 2.1, because not a single one of those countries is on a trajectory where the youth can imagine simultaneously being median income and raising a family of 4-5. You tell a young couple today that they're having triplets, watch how long it takes before they ask about abortion. You might as well tell them you're enslaving them to work until they die. That's the reality, life was supposed to get easier for the kids who's parents worked hard to give them a better life, but in reality life mostly just got more expensive.

There's one key to solving the problem that needs to happen, a tiny fraction of the world has to be prevented from robbing everyone else via money printing. Everything else is just swimming against the current, family planning reforms in Asia don't solve the underlying anti-human nature of the US led Imperial global economy.

 

[tokenanalyst]

TFR can fall drastically due to generational effects. The TFR calculation is:

5 * (births/women 15-19, ..., births/women 45-49)

In other words, it is a population weighted sum of births/women in various age groups.

This number can drop suddenly if, for whatever reason, a follow-up generation isn't having as many children as earlier generations. So, for example, if women over 40 all actually had three children back when they were 30-35, but stopped once they hit 40, that would not show up in TFR, because only births are counted. To maintain the same TFR, women who are 30-35 today would have to be having the same amount of children, or another generation would have to make up for it.

If the current generation is delaying children until much later, then TFR could drop suddenly, because the older generations will have been "done" with having children, while the current generation is yet to have them. This could be why China suffered such a severe drop after 2017 as a generation of women is delaying marriage & children for education.

But, whether that is the case or not, sudden recoveries of TFR in East Asia is not known. It didn't happen in Japan or South Korea or Taiwan. It's not likely to happen in China without a revolution in policy. This is due to the education obsession in East Asia, where people are competing for ever more education, not less.

False there is not historical precedent for that sh*t and no necessary, there is direct correlation on the rise of birth controls technologies and women entering the workforce, especially stressful city jobs were they can't bring their children like African women do in their agricultural plantations and low TFR in the same way that there is a direct correlation that the rise of medical technology and the increase the human population.
One thing is to accept things as there are and say " hey this is the sacrifice that we should do for progress and we should focus on technologies" and other different thing is fool ourselves for the sake of being politically correct.

 

[tokenanalyst]

In the past when population declines was usually because famine (great Irish famine), war (mongol conquests), genocide(Hutu and Tutsi genocide), diseases(Black Death), you know hardcore stuff, this is the first time in human history that a population may decline because being a mother is "too stressful" and "my career come first", I mean I am all for progress and a advocator of technology but let not fool ourselves.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

In the past when population declines was usually because famine (great Irish famine), war (mongol conquests), genocide(Hutu and Tutsi genocide), diseases(Black Death), you know hardcore stuff, this is the first time in human history that a population may decline because being a mother is "too stressful" and "my career come first", I mean I am all for progress and a advocator of technology but let not fool ourselves.

IDK though, South Korea has low female labor force participation but lowest birth rates. Many Korean women just sit home watching TV or being on Naver. Meanwhile Vietnam has one of the world's highest female labor force participation but almost replacement birth rates.

Can't blame on culture either, both are Sinosphere cultures.

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[gelgoog]

South Korea is mostly urbanized and has some of the most expensive real estate in the world. Vietnam is still highly rural.

 

[tokenanalyst]

IDK though, South Korea has low female labor force participation but lowest birth rates. Many Korean women just sit home watching TV or being on Naver. Meanwhile Vietnam has one of the world's highest female labor force participation but almost replacement birth rates.

Can't blame on culture either, both are Sinosphere cultures.

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Vietnam is mostly rural, less stressful, like the African women who bring their children with them to their labor, but when you go to the cities drop like a rock. Is combination of factors that goes beyond a simple mathematical formula.

I think the problem with South Korea is these chaebols have made the life of every single SKorean miserable these companies who made 60% of SK GDP are concentrated in just two regions. is a hyper urban society with a very stressful work environment. The first thing is for Korea to crack down on these chaebols but nobody want to do it because they control everything in SK.

 

[BlackWindMnt]

IDK though, South Korea has low female labor force participation but lowest birth rates. Many Korean women just sit home watching TV or being on Naver. Meanwhile Vietnam has one of the world's highest female labor force participation but almost replacement birth rates.

Can't blame on culture either, both are Sinosphere cultures.

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Maybe Korean men just to tired to have sex or have bad sperm quality because of society related stress.
Usually people talk about female fertility but the drop in testosterone levels and sperm quality in men should also impact replacement birth rates..

Maybe an interesting metric to follow is couple that do want children but can't conceive children after like a year of trying?

 

[tokenanalyst]

Maybe Korean men just to tired to have sex or have bad sperm quality because of society related stress.
Usually people talk about female fertility but the drop in testosterone levels and sperm quality in men should also impact replacement birth rates..

Maybe an interesting metric to follow is couple that do want children but can't conceive children after like a year of trying?

Even men in their mid 50s-60s can have children.
I think that the expectations for Korean youth has changed, high living cost coupled with a stressful working life means that Koreans have to always choose between careers and children.
Koreans housing prices always go up.

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Even men in their mid 50s-60s can have children.
I think that the expectations for Korean youth has changed, high living cost coupled with a stressful working life means that Koreans have to always choose between careers and children.
Koreans housing prices always go up.
View attachment 126642

I know its a Forbes contributor article but falling testosterone and sperm counts is a big problem in the westernised world.

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