China demographics thread.

[Tianlong]

This forum really suffers from the lack of emojis because a yawn would be particularly apt here. Apparently asking for a serious critique is asking too much.

I take that as a No. You are as far removed from the idea of raising a non-sociopathic child as humanly possible. This - of course - has implications for your "idea", which does not warrant serious critique because of its obvious, infantile, even troll-esque, inadequacies.

No, you are not the guy with the brillant idea to solve this problem. You are probably the guy with the least amount of conceptual insight into the dynamics of healthy demographics I ever witnessed.

 

[Overbom]

So many philosophical and sci-fi discussions about solving demographic problems when someone has already found a solution to that. Surprise, its the Republicans lol.

Ban abortion, ban contraceptives and thats your demographics problems solved. For all the big talk, I have still not seen a man who would be willing to endure a lifetime of not having sex over not having children.

Unless humankind suddenly makes an (re)evolutionary leap, you can always depend on man's lust over women to drive your country's population growth

 

[Hadoren]

A 15-week abortion ban is an interesting idea.

 

[Overbom]

A 15-week abortion ban is an interesting idea.

What would be interesting is seeing the fertility rate on the US states which have prohibited abortion. Any big jump, and I don't think any policy maker concerned about demographics would ignore that

Especially for China, that would single handedly solve its demographic issues

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Around 9.7m abortions are carried out each year in China, according to official statistics, yielding an abortion rate of roughly 28 per 1,000 women

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

which does not warrant serious critique because of its obvious, infantile, even troll-esque, inadequacies.

Just as you took my response to mean "no", I'll take yours to mean you lack the intellectual capacity to formulate a serious critique of my proposal or anything else, really. And given your posting history on this forum, I wouldn't bring up trolling if I were you.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I don't think abortion bans are a good idea at all. People who wanted to abort typically do so because they don't want to and/or cannot take care of a baby. Those with means will fly out to neighboring countries to do it anyway draining the economy. Forcing the people who don't even have the means to avoid the abortion ban to have kids may add more kids who become social burdens rather than contributors raised by healthy willing parents. The only times when an abortion ban will have the intended effect is if the parents were on the fence and were thus convinced to not do something illegal or if having a baby changed the outlook of initially unwilling parents. The latter is likely more significant.

 

[Abominable]

I don't think abortion bans are a good idea at all. People who wanted to abort typically do so because they don't want to and/or cannot take care of a baby. Those with means will fly out to neighboring countries to do it anyway draining the economy. Forcing the people who don't even have the means to avoid the abortion ban to have kids may add more kids who become social burdens rather than contributors raised by healthy willing parents. The only times when an abortion ban will have the intended effect is if the parents were on the fence and were thus convinced to not do something illegal or if having a baby changed the outlook of initially unwilling parents. The latter is likely more significant.

Abortion bans are typically very successful, most people don't break the law or go abroad and just have the child.

I think Israel has a good system for reducing abortions. It's technically legal but Israel has very low rates because of religious and social coercion. Mothers are encouraged not to have abortions and are given incentives to bear the child for adoption or fostering.

The biggest problem with banning abortions to increase birth rates is a significant number of them will be done for medical reasons. For example an ectopic pregnancy is recorded as an abortion, but there isn't any other medical choice. A lot of parents abort because of medical defects.

So 10 million or so abortions being banned will likely not result in 10 million more births.

 

[supercat]

China is really in trouble this time, tfr can't easily improve no matter how much you try to give benefits example is japan, and scandinavian countries, one child policy has drastically changed social norms where one child is now more preferable.

China's initial trial with subsidies for new born babies seems to have some positive effect:

The birth rate in Panzhihua has increased by 1.62 percent over the previous year since the subsidy policy started, Tang said.

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[drowingfish]

if you want to ban abortion, you better have a damn good safety net to deal with the consequences.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Abortion bans are typically very successful, most people don't break the law or go abroad and just have the child.

I think Israel has a good system for reducing abortions. It's technically legal but Israel has very low rates because of religious and social coercion. Mothers are encouraged not to have abortions and are given incentives to bear the child for adoption or fostering.

The biggest problem with banning abortions to increase birth rates is a significant number of them will be done for medical reasons. For example an ectopic pregnancy is recorded as an abortion, but there isn't any other medical choice. A lot of parents abort because of medical defects.

So 10 million or so abortions being banned will likely not result in 10 million more births.

They might be successful at raising the population but the key to success isn't just a high population; it's filling your country with good strong contributors who are educated and morally true. Kids "raised" by parents who didn't want them and don't really have or want to spend money on their development don't usually turn out that well. China's not trying to fill its streets with delinquents who don't take to education, have no (positive) sense of society/family/responsibility and might even harbor a hatred for society because of how hard it was growing up.