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China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
I live in China and honestly I feel like the Chinese government has resigned itself to the current demographic trajectory. The demographic challenge is threefold and frankly insurmountable in my opinion - fewer marriages each year, more married couples not interested in having any kids, and loads of couples (more than 50% in urban areas in my experience) being perfectly happy just having one kid. The last point is super important because this seems to be a cultural prefence that is not shared by another country or culture. We've all seen how government efforts to increase fertility rates though economic measures essentially have no effect in other countries even though the third challenge I mentioned doesn't even apply.The three biggest dangers China faces are:
1. The extremely low birth rate and non existent policies to address this great danger
2. The hegemonic and genocidal wrath of the USA Empire
3. The global warming & environment
We need to be honest in the face of existential crises. How will this unfold in your opinion? You cannot let the situation worsen (already in a very advanced state) because the demographic crisis will absolutely destroy Chinese civilization in the long run with a hands-off approach to birth rates. This is not just a personal issue between couples but a great national and existential crisis. There needs to be a great national debate about Chinese demographics and not only among a handful think tankers from Yuwa, the writer Yi Fuxian and the Chinese Politburo.I live in China and honestly I feel like the Chinese government has resigned itself to the current demographic trajectory. The demographic challenge is threefold and frankly insurmountable in my opinion - fewer marriages each year, more married couples not interested in having any kids, and loads of couples (more than 50% in urban areas in my experience) being perfectly happy just having one kid. The last point is super important because this seems to be a cultural prefence that is not shared by another country or culture. We've all seen how government efforts to increase fertility rates though economic measures essentially have no effect in other countries even though the third challenge I mentioned doesn't even apply.
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Frankly I think the government has done a cost-benefit analysis and have come to the conclusion that the investment needed to make even a dent in the current demographic trajectory is so monumental that it cannot be made at the present time, especially with so many other challenges that are (in their opinion) equally or more pressing, such as the imminent threat of a new cold war with the West.We need to be honest in the face of existential crises. How will this unfold in your opinion? You cannot let the situation worsen (already in a very advanced state) because the demographic crisis will absolutely destroy Chinese civilization in the long run with a hands-off approach to birth rates. This is not just a personal issue between couples but a great national and existential crisis. There needs to be a great national debate about Chinese demographics and not only among a handful think tankers from Yuwa, the writer Yi Fuxian and the Chinese Politburo.
You can't win a Cold War with a plummeting population. The long term advantage goes to the side with the largest tax base, labor force, talent pool, and market size.Frankly I think the government has done a cost-benefit analysis and have come to the conclusion that the investment needed to make even a dent in the current demographic trajectory is so monumental that it cannot be made at the present time, especially with so many other challenges that are (in their opinion) equally or more pressing, such as the imminent threat of a new cold war with the West.
Perhaps they're going at it the wrong way. Instead of getting couples living in expensive city apartments to give birth they could encourage more people to stay in rural areas instead of every young person moving to the city. Especially those who are less educated and less likely to contribute to tech/knowledge industries concentrated in cities. Urbanisation is really the greatest depressing factor in birthrates.
Would create more manufacturing jobs in cheap rural areas and more births due to the less stressful living environment.
Would create more manufacturing jobs in cheap rural areas and more births due to the less stressful living environment.
Most recent data showed a snall decrease.China needs to cut the cost of housing down. They are already working on it.
That, and wage increases, means that housing is getting cheaper quite fast (relatively)