1907 < 1914 - 1918 < 1929. Perhaps I should've phrased as "WW1 happened during the era of 1907 to 1929". Happy now?
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
Sadly it seems the main reason for decreasing birth rates in most countries IS gender equality. AS woman are no longer seen as stay at home housewives whose main role is to breed children, they go out into the workforce and try to occupy the same niche that men have for all of history.
This strongly disincentivizes smart well-planning women from child birth and child-rearing. The only exception is Israel, but they have a specially curious case.
This strongly disincentivizes smart well-planning women from child birth and child-rearing. The only exception is Israel, but they have a specially curious case.
That professor has swallowed the idiotic agenda perpetuated by the hedonists.
I think a big part of the issue is the perceived burden of having children when you're younger, which prevents a person from doing certain things that you only can do without the responsibility of caring for a child, e.g. a 'bucket list', and it appears this type of thinking takes hold once a certain average national income level is reached regardless of where you are (barring exceptional cases).
I don't think this can be reversed, however to use myself as an example, I find myself becoming more conservative / traditional the older I get. So instead of trying to reverse the flow, why not divert it for child bearing at a later age?
A person in their late 30's may not find many items on the 'bucket list' from their 20's and early 30's to be appealing anymore, and they may start to see a 'traditional' family as the more appealing light on the horizon.
If there were a policy aiming in that direction, promoting and incentivizing a 'life path' involving starting a traditional family later in life, I would definitely be sold. Prerequisites for that kind of 'life path' to actually work might include a stable and decent paying job, home ownership etc. however can probably be overcome by tweaking variants of the incentives and narrative to cover off a wider range of socioeconomic circumstances.
Broccoli
Senior Member
You can't run a house with one salary in most countries that's why both parents usually work.
Generally countries what are less high-tech and more rural based have more kids.
As China’s population nears ‘normalised phase of decline’, experts assess pace and severity
- Demographers offer varying takes on China’s population outlook, with some saying it could shrink by 1 million a year from 2025, while others foresee a more drawn-out decline
- •Excess of 10 million deaths a year could become the norm for China as its ageing crisis worsens
The official numbers, released on Monday, are fuelling concerns about China’s demographic crisis, including worries that its population size or will do so in the near future.
the next 10 to 20 years, China’s natural population growth will not continue falling, it will fluctuate around zero and could see small drops, but there will not be rapid decreases,” said Chen Wei, a professor with the Population Development Studies Centre at Renmin University.
The from the National Bureau of Statistics show that Chinese mothers gave birth to 10.62 million babies last year – down 11.5 per cent from 12 million in 2020. The national birth rate also fell to 7.52 births for every 1,000 people, down from 8.52 in 2020 and the lowest rate since data became available.
Yuan Xin, vice-president of the China Population Association and a professor of demography at Nankai University in Tianjin, said he expects China’s population to grow in 2022 before approaching zero growth and eventually entering a stage of normalised decline.
“The natural population increase was 2.04 million people in 2020 and 0.48 million in 2021,” Yuan said. “Looking at the total national population of 1.4 billion people, we can basically say that the number of births is offset by the number of deaths.
“Based on experiences from countries and regions that have entered into a population decline, zero population growth does not happen at a fixed point in time, such as a given year. Rather, it occurs over a period of time that lasts for years, during which natural population growth fluctuates around zero.”
Yuan also voiced support for the nation’s that was rolled out last year, “despite the low sentiments” surrounding its announcement. “It will be effective to the extent that it will have a positive impact on population growth,” he added.
Meanwhile, experts are also warning that will continue to deepen, as the number of people aged 60 and older accounted for 18.9 per cent of the population last year, up from 18.7 in 2020.
And the number of people aged 65 and older accounted for 14.2 per cent of the population, up 13.5 per cent last year and the first time it has ever topped 14 per cent, which some experts view as a key threshold in defining the level of population ageing.
The number of people older than 60 grew at a relatively slower rate in 2021, and Yuan attributed this to fewer births in 1961 during China’s great famine. He said China should expect the ageing rate to increase rapidly moving forward, as the boom in births from 1962-75 will bring the annual growth of people older than 60 to more than 10 million.
In terms of mortality, 10.14 million mainlanders died in 2021 – the second time since 1949 that the number topped 10 million, with the other year being 1960. An estimated 30 million people starved to death from 1959-61.
Meanwhile, experts are also warning that will continue to deepen, as the number of people aged 60 and older accounted for 18.9 per cent of the population last year, up from 18.7 in 2020.
And the number of people aged 65 and older accounted for 14.2 per cent of the population, up 13.5 per cent last year and the first time it has ever topped 14 per cent, which some experts view as a key threshold in defining the level of population ageing.
The number of people older than 60 grew at a relatively slower rate in 2021, and Yuan attributed this to fewer births in 1961 during China’s great famine. He said China should expect the ageing rate to increase rapidly moving forward, as the boom in births from 1962-75 will bring the annual growth of people older than 60 to more than 10 million.
In terms of mortality, 10.14 million mainlanders died in 2021 – the second time since 1949 that the number topped 10 million, with the other year being 1960. An estimated 30 million people starved to death from 1959-61.
Yuan said that an excess of 10 million deaths a year could become the norm for China as its ageing crisis worsens.
Compared with Yuan and Chen’s relatively conservative predictions on China’s population, others believe China’s population peaked last year
Independent demographer He Yafu expects it will shrink by hundreds of thousands of people in 2022, with a continued drop-off after that.
“From 2022 to 2024, new births will remain close to 10 million while the number of deaths will be around 10.3 million to 11 million,” He said. “After 2025, the total population will drop by more than 1 million every year, and enter a normalised phase of decline.”
Source:
Non paywall:
they need to stop parroting propaganda. I swear these numbers track inflation.
If no action for it ! The Chinese's dream will be end!
It won't be a surprise if families were intentionally postponing having children during the pandemic. And they weren't wrong seeing what had happened in Xi'an.