supercat
Major
Almost all industrialized nations face an unfavorable demographic profile in the future like China does, including the U.S.:
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
We've seen from other asian countries that monetary rewards don't really work, unless they're on a scale we've never seen before.
What works is reducing cost of living and reducing urbanisation, the former China is doing but not the latter
China population: 2021 birth data to offer fresh insight into demographic crisis
- Annual data will show whether China’s number of births and birth rate hit record lows in 2021, and will give breakdowns in terms of age, gender and residence
- Demographic figures from the National Bureau of Statistics also factor into the national economic performance report due on Monday
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is also expected to release 2021’s year-end population, annual birth rate and breakdowns in terms of age, gender and residence, according to the official schedule and conventional practices.
The demographic figures will factor into 2021’s national economic performance report that should also come out on Monday. That report will give China’s economic growth rate in 2021.
Annual data will also show whether the country’s number of births and birth rate hit record lows in 2021, shedding fresh light on how soon .
That would offer a long-awaited official gauge of the country’s current demographic status following the results that were revealed in May. Those results showed that births in 2020 drop sharply to 12 million – down from 14.65 million in 2019, and the lowest point in a nearly six decades.
Beijing responded by further loosening its controversial birth restrictions, allowing couples to have .
Experts have warned that the country could hit its demographic breaking point more quickly than previously expected, resulting in a dwindling labour force, a strained pension system, and a rethink of Beijing’s inward-facing consumption strategy known as .
“We estimated that the number of national births in 2021 will drop by 13-20 per cent from 2020 – the number will be between 9.5 million and 10.5 million,” said YuWa Population Research, a think tank established by some of the nation’s leading advocates for lifting birth restrictions, in a report published last month.
“If the number of newborns is close to the lower limit of the forecast, the total population is bound to enter a negative growth,” the report added. That would indicate there are more people leaving the population than joining it.
According to the official China Statistical Yearbook released last month, 2020’s birth rate fell to a record low 8.52 births per 1,000 people.
The country recorded a fertility rate of just 1.3 children per woman in 2020, below the rate of 2.1 is needed to maintain a stable population. China’s rate was lower than the 1.34 of Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, which has struggled with an ageing and shrinking population for decades.
Singapore had an even lower rate of 1.1. The city state has been trying to boost its birth rate by granting S$8,000 in cash gifts to couples having their first or second child, and S$10,000 for each additional child.
After China’s census, many local-level authorities across the country stepped up their efforts to encourage more births, including by offering subsidies, lending money and granting longer parental leaves to those who have a second or third child.
One county is essentially playing Cupid by via an official database for matchmaking purposes.
Other responses have sparked controversial and online censorship. Last week, a prominent economist called on China’s central bank to to encourage births. Weibo, China’s version of Twitter, then from posting, saying he had “violated relevant laws and regulations”.
Some local government statistics have already given sporadic insight into the population figures for last year, though China does not release national population data on a quarterly or half-yearly basis.
Authorities in Anhui province, one of China’s major sources of migrant workers, declared that , and they were expecting a year-on-year drop of 17.8 per cent in 2021 in an official document from September.
Henan, the country’s third-most-populous province, showed an 18.8 per cent decline in the number of newborns during the first nine months of last year, according to the official statistics pertaining to disease screenings among newborns.
Guiyang city, capital of Guizhou province, registered 41,908 births among permanent residents in the first 11 months of 2021, down 13.3 per cent from a year prior. China conducts its national census every 10 years. Five years after every census, 1 per cent of the population is sampled. And in other years, just 0.1 per cent of the population is sampled, according to authorities.
Last January, however, the bureau did not publish the annual demographic numbers. Instead, they were released along with the census results in May.
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Non paywall:
The question is if the births will still drastically drop in 2022 from 2021 or stabilise. Hope it can stabilise.
The NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) will release the demographic and economical data in 14 hours.
Supposedly the 2021 births were even lower than 2022.
We will see. If the news is bad, maybe that could push the government to take decisive measures
Need to first radically reform the national real estate sector, and dump the private entrepreneurs and other interests that only go for profit above societal and civilization well being in the dustbin of history. Also need to reduce the working week to a maximum of 30-40 hours so that people have a chance to start a family. A lot need to be done bordering on a wholesale societal transformation to turn the tide.
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Property sector prices are already getting reduced due to deleveraging.
Do you want an even more decline in prices? That could lead to financial instability
Housing needs to be a resource that is easily available to everyone who wants to start a family. The modern housing market is to expansive for a majority of the people. That is absolutely not healthy.
I don't disagree, I am just saying that there cant be a large and sudden decrease in prices because this could create a financial crisis.
Think it that way, every year let's say there is 6% increase in people's incomes while house prices are reduced by -1%. That means that houses are cheaper, and income is higher, which means that housing situation for common people has improved a "lot" in just 1 year.
Keep this up for 5 more years and there would be a tremendous change on housing (for the benefit of the people)