China balloon & Airship Development

Lethe said:

The recent admission that the three non-Chinese objects were probably benign, coupled with the lack of further heroic engagements over the last few days, leads one to suspect that a further paradigm shift has occurred.

1) US is caught unawares by Chinese balloon. National anxiety is stoked, calls for robust response, balloon is shot down.

2) NORAD changes filter settings on its radars and immediately starts picking up all sorts of shit "out there". Queue the several subsequent engagements as national hysteria persists.

3) As analysis begins to catch up and immediate hysteria subsides, the narratives around both the initial Chinese balloon and subsequent objects begin to change.

Perhaps NORAD has advised that it will need a lot more flight hours and Sidewinders if it is going to investigate every flock of birds and shoot down everything it can't positively identify.

It's tempting to derive some satisfaction from observing the US government and society flail around like this, but it should also serve as a sobering reminder about the potential for miscalculation across the full breadth of US-China relations. Governments must often act on incomplete information and their decisions are shaped by domestic political imperatives.

Many people downplay the risks of conflict between the USA and China, specifically the risk of nuclear escalation. Underpinning this attitude is an implicit or explicit belief in a kind of cool rationality fed by accurate and complete information. The balloon saga is a fairly low-cost illustration of how misguided such assumptions are.

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lube said:

The civilian balloons cost like 50-100 dollars each.

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If this isn't hysteria, don't know what is.

Also surprised one of these cheapo balloons apparently circumnavigated the earth 7 times in 4 months.

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lube said:

The civilian balloons cost like 50-100 dollars each.

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If this isn't hysteria, don't know what is.

Also surprised one of these cheapo balloons apparently circumnavigated the earth 7 times in 4 months.

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siegecrossbow said:

Notice how they didn't worry about hurting civilians or ground installation with debris this time.

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tankphobia said:

I'm convinced the whole point they let the first one fly all the way across before shooting it down was just so they could shoot it down at the beach in front of a massive crowd of onlookers rather than the middle of a cornfield. Soft power baby!

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siegecrossbow said:

More like Jai Hind power.

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Tactical pimp slap.

“You let Seeseepee spy balloon travel into U.S. air space!”

Tactical backhand.

“You used a million dollar net to shoot down science fair balloon!”

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lube said:

Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade

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Lethe said:

The recent admission that the three non-Chinese objects were probably benign, coupled with the lack of further heroic engagements over the last few days, leads one to suspect that a further paradigm shift has occurred.

1) US is caught unawares by Chinese balloon. National anxiety is stoked, calls for robust response, balloon is shot down.

2) NORAD changes filter settings on its radars and immediately starts picking up all sorts of shit "out there". Queue the several subsequent engagements as national hysteria persists.

3) As analysis begins to catch up and immediate hysteria subsides, the narratives around both the initial Chinese balloon and subsequent objects begin to change.

Perhaps NORAD has advised that it will need a lot more flight hours and Sidewinders if it is going to investigate every flock of birds and shoot down everything it can't positively identify.

It's tempting to derive some satisfaction from observing the US government and society flail around like this, but it should also serve as a sobering reminder about the potential for miscalculation across the full breadth of US-China relations. Governments must often act on incomplete information and their decisions are shaped by domestic political imperatives.

Many people downplay the risks of conflict between the USA and China, specifically the risk of nuclear escalation. Underpinning this attitude is an implicit or explicit belief in a kind of cool rationality fed by accurate and complete information. The balloon saga is a fairly low-cost illustration of how misguided such assumptions are.

Click to expand...

BoraTas said:

From an ex-air force guy on Quora, I read they likely jammed the balloon throughout its flight and used ELINT assets to record its transmissions. Considering that it is just a weather balloon (it doesn't even have camo ) that is so funny if it is true. Also, I think the later octagonal object with dangling parts was a lost kite. Everything is so funny all the way from politicians' reactions to subsequent victory celebrations to NORAD shooting down everything unidentified after the incident (because Biden couldn't afford one more incident of not looking tough).

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