Do you think Tshisekedi could play China off against them or had Xi and Putin worked out their respective "spheres of influence?"
Not Russia, but Tshisekedi is basically playing China off against the West. Russia is not relevant in Congo in any way and Putin can't help China here.
This isn't necessarily unmanagable. If Tshisekedi asks for a greater cut, it's not a big deal, as long as he is reasonable. His asking price is too high but I think that's just a negotiation tactic + signalling to domestic audience (elections coming up this December). He knows fully well that Congo needs China. Talks are currently ongoing. Let's see.
But I still think the China's Congo ventures are risky in the medium to long term. But that's not because of Tshisekedi per se but due to the overall political climate in Congo. It's really, really bad. Despite two decades of relative peace, the central govt hasn't managed to build any state capacity. Not even in the Kinshasa region which is entirely under their control. Regional politicians/warlords are all looking at the mines and licking their chops. One misstep by Kinshasa and suddenly you have another civil war flaring up.
Hmm...so now, surely Westoids covet Chinese contracts for African resources too -- but how come they ain't made a play for them yet?
Seems the easiest thing to do, to cause massive trouble for Chinese operations in Africa. Or ate things quiet due to backroom horse-trading ("you keep the gold, I take cobalt since I can process it anyway")?
Right now, it is not Western companies that are picking up Chinese assets. It's the other way round. Chinese companies are gradually acquiring shares in Western operations. Zijjin mining took half of the Kamoa-Kakula mine from Canada's Ivanhoe. CMOC took over TFM from American Freeport-McMoran. Business is good, for now.
In future the same may happen for gold as well. Simply put, China is more powerful than the West when it comes to mining in Africa right now and the gap will keep on increasing. Barring an outright millitary invasion (like Libya 2011), they can't do much, only wordcelling.
How so?? Especially if it's primarily economic as you believe -- why would they need to "cope"...what was ever lost for there to be a need for copium?
That's what they have been doing since 1949. It's probably an unconcious habit now. It's not even like they refine any of these metals that much.
Primarily?? Curious: Is there anywhere in the Global South where Chinese interests are *not* primarily economic but political? I can only imagine some place like the Solomon Islands or Maldives, outtaway kinda places where it doesn't seem like there's really a lot of major business opportunities....
North Korea. Technically not global south though. And then of course there is Taiwan. These are the two places where China simply won't care about economics if push comes to shove.
Next would be Russia and Pakistan - for these two too, geopolitical factors are more important for China than money. China can't allow either of them to go down.
Then the central Asian 'stans and the ASEAN countries. The railway line to Laos was essentially a gift, and a signal to Vietnam - "You can have this too if you bow."
I just don't think SSA falls into this category yet. Even American geopolitical interest in SSA is quite low compared to what it used to be during the cold war.
So that's the thing I'm curious about; was it Americans/non-African foreigners actually doing the infrastructure work (even if "only" planning and managing things) or are there actual native/local Congolese companies and general contractors that exist in country?
Back in the 1980s? Same as Chinese today I guess. Foreign managers + local labor.
Western companies are not entirely absent in Congo today either. World Bank has done multiple projects in recent years, although smaller than Chinese.
Congo does have local contractors too but still smallish, compared to other African countries (like say Julius Berger in Nigeria). The reason why local Congolese contractor can't grow is due to extreme corruption.
You seem really knowledgeable about Chinese activities in Africa. What might you advise Xi Jinping if you had the opportunity -- "keep on keepin' on Comrade Chairman" or is there anything you would change somehow (and why or why not)?
Any problems you think is on the horizon? Like climate catastrophe, et cetera. How would you handle treachery like Tshisekedi's? Would you try coordinating with Putin?
Honestly, advising Xi Jinping is above my pay grade lol. Basically I want people not to pay *any* attention to what Western media says about China in Africa/BRI and keep the eye firmly set on the balance sheet.
Not *less* attention. I want you to ignore it in its entirety. It's 100% focused on doing FUD and if you so much as touch that crap you will learn something wrong. There are very few Western outlets that are somewhat honest in their reporting but none in MSM.
I do think China over-invested/loaned in Africa and some of these are bound to go bad. But it's managable. For its part, Beijing already seems to have learned the lesson and Chinese investment/loan in Africa has gone down drastically since 2020. Some consolidation is due.
