China’s Military Spending to Double by 2015

cn_habs

Junior Member
China can upgrade its armed forces if it wants to. But it doesn't have to be done very rapidly. China faces no obvious military threat from its neighbours, who either have weak militaries or no interest in starting a conflict with China.

PLA obviously wants to be ready just in case and act as the best deterrent in peace time. In case you haven't noticed, the Japanese Self DEFENSE force has a much equipped air force than the PLA. Only the stupid and naive would believe in their goodwill given the recent history.

It's so hypocritical when a ridiculously indebted nation like Japan can afford to keep borrowing to roll out new "destroyers" on top of its current fleet which is far more capable than the PLA.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
PLA obviously wants to be ready just in case

Just in case what?

In case you haven't noticed, the Japanese Self DEFENSE force has a much equipped air force than the PLA

I keep being told on this forum that the PLAAF could hold its own against the JASDF (or beat it). Are you telling me that the 200 J-10s, 100 S-30MMK/MK2s, 100+ J-11s and 80+ Su-27s (not to mention further planes on order and older types in service) are powerless against 180 F-15s and 80+ F-2s? Really?

Only the stupid and naive would believe in their goodwill given the recent history.

Recent history - you mean the last 66 years of peace?

It's so hypocritical when a ridiculously indebted nation like Japan can afford to keep borrowing to roll out new "destroyers" on top of its current fleet which is far more capable than the PLA.

What's hypocritical? Japan isn't telling China how to fund its budget.
 

Kurt

Junior Member
I don't think police can deal with large scale civil unrest. It is the job of the military. It's that way in China and every other country on this planet.

To clarify a very important aspect of modern Western democratic culture: It's NOT the job of the military to deal with such a situation, it's the job of paramilitary police forces and police forces. Obdience to this regulation is very strict in all Western societies and that China decided to handle the Tiananmen situation differently is the official reason for the Western arms embargo against China, forcing them to be best buddies with Russia.
There's one situation that could require the use of military forces in the interior if the enemy is considered a combatant according to the Geneva convention and the issue is a civil war.

Seriously, I don't understand why you keep pushing the requirement of high military spending for China. A defense policy is oriented on requirements and the security situation. China is in the comfortable situation that no enemy threatens them on land and that they can fend of all naval invasions with current means. So China is foremost at leisure to pick their militarization. The rising military budget of China has in my opinion much to do with politics because the military is a major political factor and they want their pay offs for supporting the economic boom by relinquishing modernizations for some time. Strange as it may seem, militaries all over the world have a pressing need for newest toys irrespective of enemy capabilities. In this case, the military build-up of China is directed against US abilities of interference with China's increasingly global connections and sadly seems to lead again into a global challenge of mighty powers.
The difference is now in a simplified way between multiparty democracies and Asian style magistracies that generally have one party with many factions in power who derive their legitimation by economic boom. Keeping a less ambitious military profile that is always designed as being able to confront (DF21 has a badly chosen name and job description) instead of being able to cooperate to achieve some common ground joint operations like disaster relief and citizen rescue and more concilitation than confrontation on hotspots would much help to reduce the requirements for military spending on both sides. As long as there's too much ammunition for another Cold War armament run, it'll be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I'm sorry to destroy some old stereotypes, but China is founded on successful expansion, by military and by other means. Southern China is the earliest major Chinese conquest from their ancient homelands along the Yellow River. As long as China did have military strength there are reports about armed clashes with neighbours in abundance.
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Second, again what do you mean by "attack" and what's the reason the conflict starts? For example, does the Gulf War count? The US and its allies attacked Iraq. Sure Saddam had invaded Kuwait, but he hadn't attacked the US. Then there's Kosovo. Serbia hadn't attacked NATO, so maybe NATO should have left it alone. I mean, who cares about Kosovans? If Serbia wants to murder them that's its business, right? Same for Libya. If Gaddafi had wanted to burn Cyrenaica, that was his call.

Sorry, to disturb the US-centric narrative, but the Kosovo was a German led affair where the US was forced to follow. Kosovo is an old German ally and we would have had to feed much more fugitives and Albanian mafia members, so Germany was very instrumental in pushing NATO into this war. It's not very different from the Chinese interference in the Korean War.
Cyrenaica has likely much to do with Gaddafi making oil deals with the wrong guys and Saddam got very confused messages he misjudged instead of understanding that Saudi-Arabia is a pillar of American power. It's very sad to see how money through oil destroyed the Arabian culture btw. and how little the Saudis are able to achieve themselves without foreigners.
 
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cn_habs

Junior Member
What's hypocritical? Japan isn't telling China how to fund its budget.

Japan isn't but naive people who think they live in an war-free utopia are. How come new Japanese "destroyers" never get much reaction but any Chinese military increase can make them cry "China threat" like there's no tomorrow.

Do you even know what kinda of a shithole Japan has been dug herself into the past 2 decades? Get your facts right.

The reality is that it's none of your freaking business to go around saying what China does need or doesn't need when 90% of the Western countries only pour more debt on the middle class taxpayers to fund their military-industrial complex. Let's see who will be laughing in the end if you think most of your pension will be there when you retire (unless you work for the government). :)
 

CottageLV

Banned Idiot
No need to argue pointlessly on such topic. Like I have mentioned in other posts, USA has fundamentally the best constitution for human rights in this world. It values protection of personal properties and the rights of religious practices. The internationally renowned, and controversial, second amendment suggests that every man and women has the rights to pickup arms whenever he/she feel their rights been threatened. Not even that, just the idea of prevention of someone else violating their rights is enough to give rights to bear arms.

How is this different for countries at the international level? If Japan had attacked you TWICE as recent as the last century, then why should you not feel threatened. Japan had been more and more hawkish in the last decade and this transformation is accelerating. They have been trying to change their constitution so they can send military abroad, and anyone who is not childish enough knows that the convenience for US troops in the areas logistics supply and support is just an excuse. It is obvious their long term goal is to project forces abroad.

If even normal citizen could bear arms for self protection, then why could not a sovereign nation spend money on self protection?

Of course South Korea won't attack China, neither does it have the gut to. But don't forget North Korea. As much as China doesn't like North Korea (surprising for most, but this does exist, which I will talk about in another topic), due to the nature of their geographical location and strategical importance, China has no choice but to backup North Korea for their own interests. This is a problem, since North Korea is internally unstable and any turbulence could draw the attention of the Seventh Fleet, potentially even lead to US full scale intervention. If this happens, like it did happen before, should China setback and allow the US army setup check points at the Yalu River, or should they at least try to maintain status-quot?

As big as China's military sounds, it is very spread out. Like mentioned before, the Northeast region is a very unstable hot-spot, the situations may be as mild as a large scale refugee influx or might be as severe as the full scale US intervention. Do you guys really think 200-300 their generation jets are enough to handle something of this scale?

Another potential opponent/competitor is the polar bear to the north. Its relationship had been very rough with China for the past 300-400 years. The only warm periods are the Stalin era and the recent alliance to counter US influence. But like it had happened so many times before, such as the Sino-soviet split in 1960, things could change overnight, you never know when the polar bear could take a bite out of you unexpectedly. As weak as Russia looks today, it still has a very big and solid military industry. It might take them sometime to recover, like the old saying in Chinese culture, a camel starved to death is still bigger than a horse. If Putin gets re-elected and his later successor do their job well, Russia could easily rise to be a formidable force again.

Tibet is another topic that we cannot leave out. It is and will be unstable for a long period of time. Ethnic Han makeup for less than 5% of the total population. On top of that, it borders India, which it disputes over territorial claims. The famous Southern Tiber or Aranalchal pradesh region, is as big as 3/4 of Bangladesh. India currently has at least 200 thousand troops in the region. They are building up roads for military purposes and steadily transferring their fighter jets to here. In fact whenever India does something, especially in terms of military build-ups, they compare themselves to China. They have China as their biggest potential aggressor. Should this not worry China?

The same applies to Xinjiang, which is even bigger and harder to handle. The ethnic Han Chinese in that region only makes up 40% of the population, there are another 10-15 million Muslims that may or may not want to seek independence. This population is enough to be a big country in Western Europe. In fact a lot of the activists/terrorists actually get trained in Bin Laden's camps. Don't you guys think China also needs to station at least few hundred thousand troops in this region? Not mentioning this region also border Pakistan and Afghanistan, two of the most unstable region in the world. Even more, its has the presence of US troops.

Then the list goes on. The disputes in the South China sea, the land dispute with Vietnam, the unification of Taiwan, and on and on....

Is this not enough?

To simply put it, if you live in the Ghetto, you're the only white guy. Your neighbors all walk around with guns and knives. What would you do? Go to the gun store? Would you not lock your door when you leave?
 

vesicles

Colonel
Seriously, I don't understand why you keep pushing the requirement of high military spending for China. A defense policy is oriented on requirements and the security situation.

You ask why? As PLA Wolf has stated clearly, China had seriously lagged behind in terms of military spending and national defense in general for decades. As a matter of fact, China stopped developing its military since the late 1950's and did not pick it back up in the late 1980's. And in the 1980s, PLA soldiers were raising pigs. So PLA was well behind all the major powers in everything military. When someone is that behind, you get worried. And you try your best to get back into the game. And even at the current pace, China is still lagging behind and still has a lot of catch-up to do, simply to be on-par with everyone else. So I ask what is wrong with trying to be as good as everyone else? If other nations deserve to be at a certain level in terms of national defense and still strive to be even better, why can't China do the same? Why should China have to think "good enough" is good enough? Why should China have to be lagging behind and be comfortable with being worse than everyone else? what is wrong with being all you can be?

China is in the comfortable situation that no enemy threatens them on land and that they can fend of all naval invasions with current means.

Again, I can't believe anyone still thinks like this. Anyone with even a slightest knowledge of history understands that no one should get comfortable. This is not only about national defense, but common sense even in your personal life. The moment you get comfortable, you lag behind and become a target. China was very comfortable with itself in the mid 1800's. China had the most advanced navy in Asia and was the one of the most powerful nation on the planet. The emperors felt so secure that they were dissembling China's imperial navy to build palaces. And look what happened. Within less than a decade, China was invaded by no less than 8 Western powers and was divided by the foreign powers. And this history has taught Chinese leaders an important lesson. Do NOT lag behind! The best defense against any potential future invasions is to be strong. The sooner they do that, the more secure they will become.

Your logic basically puts China's national security into someone else's hand and puts China at foreign power's mercy. You basically suggest that China should hope and even beg someone else not be invade China. That's a very bad idea! You should never base your own national security on someone else's foreign policy.

You mentioned security situations. Well, we all know that world geopolitical situation is highly dynamic. It changes all the time. The longer you stay weak, the more likely you will become an attractive meal in someone's eyes. And the security situation will change to become worse to you in no time. So if you want to maintain the current peaceful security situation, you have to stay strong. And let's not forget, while China is developing, other nations are not standing still and waiting for China to catch up. These nations are also moving forward at a fast pace. So if China doesn't move fast, they will always lag behind. And one of these days, China's weak military will make them a target. It has happened to China not too long ago... Who is to say it will not happen again?
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
i'm curious how wide spread the corrution is in the PLA?? how much $$$ actually spend on R&D or usefull things vs total budget on paper.
 

vesicles

Colonel
i'm curious how wide spread the corrution is in the PLA?? how much $$$ actually spend on R&D or usefull things vs total budget on paper.

That's an interesting question. I would assume... a lot...

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Plus, as I quoted in my post #13, having a military based on the size and population of the nation is not only valid, but an important factor to adhere to. So based on that, China's military is actually seriously under-developed...
 

escobar

Brigadier
how much $$$ actually spend on R&D or usefull things vs total budget on paper.

R&D costs are not included in the official budget; so it is difficult estimate it.

---------- Post added at 12:42 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:17 AM ----------

China Response
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A Chinese military scholar on Monday disputed a global research group's report on China's defense budget growth, saying the motivation of the report was to play up China's military threat.

The IHS Jane's report said China's military budget will double by 2015, making it more than the rest of the Asia Pacific region's combined.

China's military spending will reach 238.2 billion U.S. dollars in 2015 compared with 119.8 billion in 2011, according to the report.

Li Zhaoxing, spokesman for the annual session of China's national legislature, announced in March last year that the country's defense budget in 2011 was 601 billion yuan (91.5 billion U.S. dollars), an increase of 12.7 percent from that of 2010.

China's defense budget in 2010 increased by 7.5 percent from that of 2009, according to official statistics.

Professor Ma Gang with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) National Defense University said the IHS Jane's report was sensational and lacked a rational and factual basis.

"The report's prediction that China's military budget will gain an annual increase of 18.75 percent in the upcoming five years was purely speculative," Ma said.

"The facts have proved that China's military budget increase has gone up and down over the past years and will not always keep growing fast," Ma said.

The Chinese government has repeated that its military budget increase over the past decade made up for restrained military construction in the 1980s.

According to China's official record, the country's military budget increase ratios in the past six years were 14.7 percent, 17.8 percent, 17.5 percent, 18.5 percent, 7.5 percent and 12.7 percent.

However, from 1979 to 1989, China's military spending had experienced an average annual decrease of 5.83 percent.

Chen Bingde, the PLA's Chief of the General Staff, has said that China's military hardware lagged 20 years behind that of the U.S. and other military powers.

China's military budget for 2011 accounted only 1.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product, in comparison with U.S.'s 4.8 percent and the U.K.'s 2.7 percent.More over, the proportion of China's military budget in the country's total fiscal budget had dropped from 8.66 percent in 1998 to 6.94 percent in 2009.
 
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