Behind the China Missile Hype

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
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I consider real Chinese catchup to the US is slower than it might seem because softskills are hard to measure. In my opinion, Chinese do make progress, but are at risk to overestimate their softskills. Chinese military systems still could surprise the US, but I doubt very much that they can outclass US systems unless the cooperation with Russia improves. As long as Russia is wary about technology exports to China, they are at a disadvantage in total accumulated know-how. The value of know-how is not just making a system work, but includes unsuccessful developments that were shelved because they contain valuable lessons as well and might fare better in combination with new approaches.

People always make reference to "previous experience" in developing new technology as if it's something so vital for future growth. Sure you need a groundwork, but all your decades of "experience" won't count for anything in the future if that same knowledge can be learnt faster from a faction who started later in the game. your so called experience will matter even less if the late starter has more funding

And wtf? How does importing another country's systems improve your own country's "accumulated knowledge"? You're just buying finished products off the shelf, not the knowledge (on that matter there are former USSR scientists working for chinese aerospace institutes, so there's your "accumulated know how"). I'm sorry but China has almost everything it needs from russia.

but this is only the military sector. Move into the civil/commerical sector and the fruits and pace of Chinse RD is far more evident; leaders in green energy, telecommunications, shipbuilding, fledging consumer electronics etc etc, and with only more investment pouring in yearly, just go look at the science and technology thread we have.

Sure having lots of accumulated knowledge and first hand experience is good, but hardly vital. Depending on how long ago the "accumulated know how" was from, you can make up that experience in a tiny fraction of the time the R and D or technology origially took to be pioneered and mastered given you have the funding.

It's like people from years ago saying china couldn't make a stealth fighter because it didn't have the decades of experience in developing and manufacturing high performance fighters nor did it have experience in stealth technology becauseit had no stealth aircraft. Next minute J-20 says hi.
 

Kurt

Junior Member
Why did the Chinese buy a Soviet aircraft carrier wreck? Sorry, but because of all the capabilities you see developing in China you just fall into the overexpectation trap. We Germans switched our alliance system in the 20th century and were quite surprised what we had to learn in military matters from powers with more naval and more global experience. I think none will doubt that the Germans were military quite capable, but they never considered themselves able to face the combined might of the Western sea powers for example. It's the old story that building a sea power needs lots of time and resources while an army is a rather quick affair in comparison. China has an army, but has it a navy? No and there's quite a lot of noise about China trying to work her way around the navy problem for example.
 

Blitzo

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Why did the Chinese buy a Soviet aircraft carrier wreck?

Because that is one of the few areas they had no experience in?

Sorry, but because of all the capabilities you see developing in China you just fall into the overexpectation trap. We Germans switched our alliance system in the 20th century and were quite surprised what we had to learn in military matters from powers with more naval and more global experience. I think none will doubt that the Germans were military quite capable, but they never considered themselves able to face the combined might of the Western sea powers for example. It's the old story that building a sea power needs lots of time and resources while an army is a rather quick affair in comparison. China has an army, but has it a navy? No and there's quite a lot of noise about China trying to work her way around the navy problem for example.

China's been in the gulf of aden for three years straight now... that is, three years of blue water operations.

And stop changing the goalposts, one minute you're saying how china doesn't have decades of accumulated knowledge so their military technology R&D is at a disadvantage and people are overestimating their developments, next minute we're talking about the varyag and navy? Stick to one subject, or at least finish discussing it before moving on to the next, yeah? You're preaching to the choir if you're saying the PLAN needs more experience for its whole fleet to be blue water -- no one's denying that.
But no one's overestimating chinese capabilities either, whether its the PLAN or R&D in general as implied in your last post. If anything, most western "analysts" are massively underestimating these areas, only now starting to come to their senses after the symbolic shock of J-20.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Why did the Chinese buy a Soviet aircraft carrier wreck?

Do you realize how long ago China bought the Varyag and how much has changed since?

Based on the timeline, it seems very likely that when China first bought the Varyag, it intended to do with it the same it did with all the other soviet carriers it bought - study it and then turn it into a theme park or scrap it for steel.

Based on how long the varyag sat at Dalian with nothing being done more than the barest mininal to prevent too much degeneration, it looks certain that the decision to return her to operational service did not happen until much later, probably after the initial evaluation team found that she was in far better shape than first thought.

With all the work that China has put into refitting her, it would have probably been easier to just build a new carrier from scratch. It's not like China lacks the infrastructure or the technology. In almost every regard possible, the Chinese are at a far better position to design and build a carrier than the Soviets were when they design the varyag.

China has an army, but has it a navy? No and there's quite a lot of noise about China trying to work her way around the navy problem for example.

That is a ridiculous thing to say. China doesn't have a navy? What does it have then? Three sailing clubs? :rolleyes:

And just how exactly is China trying to 'work her away around the navy problem'? China is building up it's naval power exceptionally fast, and catching up on just about everyone out there who considers themselves a naval power.

It is funny that you should bring up German naval power.

Just like on land and in the sea, the German navy was no defeated as a result of inferior ships or men, but because of an overwhelming numerical disadvantage.

In terms of ship quality and the capabilities of crews, the German navy was not far off compared to the British, and was superior in many ways.

The Royal Navy has ruled the seas for hundreds of years, but the fledging American navy was still able to score success against it...

Sure naval power takes a long time to generate, but there is also the 'dreadnaught' factor to consider, in that the newer the fleet, the more advanced it tends to be.

Sure, China does not, nor will ever likely have a navy that can take on the combined force of the rest of the world's navies combined and win. No nation does, not even the mighty USN. So comparing any one navy to the combined naval power of the rest of the world is a silly and pointless thing to do. It's hardly like the western nations would be eagerly linning up to get a piece of the action in an all-out-war against China.

What China is doing, is building up a very large and capable modern navy that even today could give any navy except the USN a good run for it's money, and when the PLAN's current modernisation plans are complete, it will be comfortably second only to the USN, and would have a good chance of being able to keep even the USN from being able to operate effective within strike range of China's coastal cities.
 

escobar

Brigadier
I consider real Chinese catchup to the US is slower than it might seem because softskills are hard to measure. In my opinion, Chinese do make progress, but are at risk to overestimate their softskills. Chinese military systems still could surprise the US, but I doubt very much that they can outclass US systems unless the cooperation with Russia improves. As long as Russia is wary about technology exports to China, they are at a disadvantage in total accumulated know-how. The value of know-how is not just making a system work, but includes unsuccessful developments that were shelved because they contain valuable lessons as well and might fare better in combination with new approaches.

Are you trying to link china future military technology success to russia cooperation ?? :mad:
i suppose you are not following china military seriously.
from 90s to first half of past decade china military industrial base were very week, that is why they bought from russia:
military jet (su-27,su-30), ship (sovremenny), sub(kilo), chopper(Mi-171) and spacecraft technology for shenzhou.
But after years of economy growth and R&D this era is over. Today china can make all those things.
Only chopper china keep buying (not because they can't make it but for price).

this is a list of what china made in the past decade
- sub: song, yuan and an unknown sub class
- 052B/C, 054A
- FAC
- LPD
- J-10, J-11B/S, J-15, JH-7A, J-21, JF-17, L-15, H-6K, PL-10
- DF-31, DF-21D, ASAT, ABM, LACM,
- HQ-9, HQ-16
- SAR, Electro Optic, Earth observation sat and many more
- Beidou Sat
- Type-099A2, MLRS, Z-11
- AEWC&S KJ2000, KJ200, Z8, ZDK-03
- High New Series (GX 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 ), PLAAF equivalent of JSTARS
- Numerous UAV
- etc

now a list of what we would/could see in this decade
- New Strategic Bomber
- type 095
- type 052D, possible type 055
- type 054B
- carrier
- ship based laser weapon
- possible LHD
- possible J-19, UCAV
- PL-21, PL-12C/D, PL-10
- Y-20, possible airborne laser weapon
- DF-16
- Space Station
- LM 5,6,7 Rocket, large sat, Space Tracking and Surveillance System
and many more.
 
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Lion

Senior Member
Oh Ya.. China need Russian cooperation to survive or upgrade. And CHina don't have a navy as what Kurt says. If I did not remember wrongly, Russian cannot even build a LPD or LHP and even need to beg France for thier Mistral. And PLAN 071 LPD cannot classify under Navy or blue ocean going vessel. Probably use by China as merchant good shipping vessels.. Haha.. Can't believe somebody is so ignorant.

How come Russian teach China to build 071 LDP and they themselves forget how to build one? lol..

Grow up and admit it,Kurt! China has surpassed Russia.
 
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Kurt

Junior Member
Oh Ya.. China need Russian cooperation to survive or upgrade. And CHina don't have a navy as what Kurt says. If I did not remember wrongly, Russian cannot even build a LPD or LHP and even need to beg France for thier Mistral. And PLAN 071 LPD cannot classify under Navy or blue ocean going vessel. Probably use by China as merchant good shipping vessels.. Haha.. Can't believe somebody is so ignorant.

How come Russian teach China to build 071 LDP and they themselves forget how to build one? lol..

Grow up and admit it,Kurt! China has surpassed Russia.

I'm certain China has surpassed Russia and many other nations in certain fields and lags behind in many others. Soviet and Russian equipment are compareably heavy, but cheap. That in turn requires more extensive logistics for Russian operations or limits their mobility in comparison to European and US designs. China is a heir to these designs because the weight offers one advantage, a low price of the weapon systems.
In this context, introducing Mistral construction capability to Russian shipyards would be a great leap in reducing deadweight to load ratio for flat top ships where it counts most. The acquired technology is not only valuable for commando carriers, but also for the Russsian concept of aircraft carriers that is very helicopter heavy and for this reason can well be developed out of a helicopter carrier. One big advantage of the Mistral is an increased resilence against enemy strikes by extensive use of ballast tanks that go along with French damage control.
Both the lighter design and the increased resilance offer capabilities the Russians would have a hard time to develop on their own. Electronics will be another field where you can't have enough know-how.


Concerning the other isssues in replies to my post. Yes, I consider cooperation essential for China to boost her developement by cooperation with Russia and Bazil. Not cooperating is for me a sign of arrogance that seems to pale all the arrogance claims directed against the US.
China is eager to improve and their developments are directed towards a green water navy with some blue water task forces. In a few decades they want to have made the next step towards a blue water navy. The DF21 development is a back-up for a green water navy to fight a major opponent with asymmetric means. That's the rational behind assassin's mace and that's the reason why Chinese are working around the problem and not taking it head on by launching own supercarriers.
It's interesting to see your reflex "we are capable of doing everything better and will be most powerful and are very powerful."
Considering my comparison to German naval history, it's by now an official statement of the German navy that they needed to learn a lot, especiall from the British, in order to become a better navy than during the two world wars.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
I'm certain China has surpassed Russia and many other nations in certain fields and lags behind in many others. Soviet and Russian equipment are compareably heavy, but cheap. That in turn requires more extensive logistics for Russian operations or limits their mobility in comparison to European and US designs. China is a heir to these designs because the weight offers one advantage, a low price of the weapon systems.
In this context, introducing Mistral construction capability to Russian shipyards would be a great leap in reducing deadweight to load ratio for flat top ships where it counts most. The acquired technology is not only valuable for commando carriers, but also for the Russsian concept of aircraft carriers that is very helicopter heavy and for this reason can well be developed out of a helicopter carrier. One big advantage of the Mistral is an increased resilence against enemy strikes by extensive use of ballast tanks that go along with French damage control.
Both the lighter design and the increased resilance offer capabilities the Russians would have a hard time to develop on their own. Electronics will be another field where you can't have enough know-how.

What a load of ridiculously simplistic and plainly wrong generalisation.

The Russians lost much of their industrial capacity after the fall of the USSR, and that capacity is hard, expensive and time consuming to re-generate once lost.

Concerning the other isssues in replies to my post. Yes, I consider cooperation essential for China to boost her developement by cooperation with Russia and Bazil. Not cooperating is for me a sign of arrogance that seems to pale all the arrogance claims directed against the US.

All your personal opinion, which matters very little at the end of the day.

It seems you want it both ways, when China does co-operate, they are accused on copying or lacking the ability to innovate. OTOH, not co-operating is a sign of arrogance?

Co-operation between unequal partners is a pointless waste of time and resources because the only thing that matters at the end of the day is self-interest.

No-one is going to give you all their knowledge, their competative edge unless you have sufficient leverage, and/or collateral to make them. That is the first rule of capitalism, and it is amusing that 'communist' China realizes this simple fact better than most capitalist western countries.

When you enter into a co-operative deal with a company that is far more advance than you, yes you will get some advanced technology, but your more advance partner is going to make damn sure you do not get anywhere near enough to catch up with them. Just look at all your vaunted co-operation deals between western firms and those from less developed countries.

There has not been a single case where the less developed partner has gotten the full set of cutting-edge tech the two sides are co-developing. All too often, the less developed side foots much of the costs, while key, core technologies are 'black boxed' and denied to them.

Being able to make 90% of something is meaningless if that missing 10% is what really makes that system tick, and everyone else can already make the 90% you can without even having to enter such a co-operative deal.

In addition, such co-operative agreements often result in your own indigenous R&D capabilities becoming starved of resources and either having it's growth and development badly stunted or even killed off as a result.

Just look at where India and China.

India has been the golden boy of the west, playing by all the rules the west has set up. They get a pat on the head, and fancy weapons so long as they pay through the nose and play nice. But they cannot make any of it completely by themselves. If there was a complete embargo against India today, their entire armed forces (ane economy) would simply stop to function in however long their stock of spares will last.

China is eager to improve and their developments are directed towards a green water navy with some blue water task forces. In a few decades they want to have made the next step towards a blue water navy.

You are a few decades out, as the PLAN is making the leap to blue water navy already, and they will get there faster than you will imagine.

The DF21 development is a back-up for a green water navy to fight a major opponent with asymmetric means. That's the rational behind assassin's mace and that's the reason why Chinese are working around the problem and not taking it head on by launching own supercarriers.

The DF21 is no back-up. It is just another weapon system to add to the PLAN's arsenal. And it would be amusing to revisit this thread in a few years time when the PLAN starts launching their own carriers. Sure they won't be supercarriers, but they won't be for green water ops either.

It's interesting to see your reflex "we are capable of doing everything better and will be most powerful and are very powerful."
Considering my comparison to German naval history, it's by now an official statement of the German navy that they needed to learn a lot, especiall from the British, in order to become a better navy than during the two world wars.

That is a strawman argument if ever there was one. No-one here has claimed anything of the sort. And your continued insistence of using the German navy as a comparison betrays more your own tunnel vision than anything insightful on the PLAN.

If you spent less time trying to shoehorn the PLAN's development to match those of the German navy, maybe you will start to actually get some real insight on the matter.
 

Kurt

Junior Member
I used the German navy example to highlight that even a most powerful country with inventiveness and good training doesn't master the art of naval warfare easily, especially without some help. China lacks that help.
India started from a much worse economic and skill position than China because the British raj introduced a policy of de-industrialization in order to boost their own industrial capabilities. The salt issue Ghandi highlighted was just at the tip of the iceberg. Current Russian and Indian cooperation on the PAK-FA would be a prime example for me of a good cooperation.
You badmouth India, but I personally believe that India will have good longterm prospects as soon as they solve their internal problems of high corruption and little efficiency.
China had a major boost in education, which all socialist countries experienced, while they needed Western technology for better machines. India was not as totalitarian and socialist as China, so didn't have a similar education boost. The great advantage of China over her competitors with similar educational background is the economic integrity through the period of transition at the end of the Cold War and the great workforce available.
You are right that a company with a know-how base, that is the essence of their market value, doesn't share that during a cooperation with a partner who can't contribute much in exchange. It's a running joke in the West that Chinese want all your know-how and afterwards send you home because they then consider you useless for them. In such a climate of mutual mistrust you can't cooperate and recent Chinese history doesn't provide good examples of cooperation (Mao snatching nuclear technology from the Soviets).

Btw. isn't this a place to express your personal point of view. It would be nice if you said I beg to disagree instead of using a steamroller on it.

The DF-21 currently is a back-up for a green water navy without carriers to excercise some kind of area denial against a superior carrier backed-up naval force. That's the essence of the whole discussion and that's the summary of assassin's mace approach. Could it be that you tripped over an inflated nationalistic ego in order to misread statements?
 
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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I used the German navy example to highlight that even a most powerful country with inventiveness and good training doesn't master the art of naval warfare easily, especially without some help. China lacks that help.
India started from a much worse economic and skill position than China because the British raj introduced a policy of de-industrialization in order to boost their own industrial capabilities. The salt issue Ghandi highlighted was just at the tip of the iceberg. Current Russian and Indian cooperation on the PAK-FA would be a prime example for me of a good cooperation.

I'm not sure what the british raj has to do with this?
China is cooperating with other countries, where it needs to. For instance they're cooperating with Russia on a future heavy helicopter project, and with eurocopter for EC-175/Z-15. Yes the Chinese prefer to go it alone if possible rather than joining with a "partner" but that's because it's had experience with russian promises and has been on the bad side of military embargos as well.

that's not called arrogance, it's called being experienced.

And weren't you talking about naval warfare? What has PAK FA got to do with naval warfare?

You badmouth India, but I personally believe that India will have good longterm prospects as soon as they solve their internal problems of high corruption and little efficiency.

Much easier said than done. It's like saying "I personally believe that the US will have good longterm prospects as soon as they solve their internal problems of government debt and political deadlock"...


China had a major boost in education, which all socialist countries experienced, while they needed Western technology for better machines. India was not as totalitarian and socialist as China, so didn't have a similar education boost. The great advantage of China over her competitors with similar educational background is the economic integrity through the period of transition at the end of the Cold War and the great workforce available.
You are right that a company with a know-how base, that is the essence of their market value, doesn't share that during a cooperation with a partner who can't contribute much in exchange. It's a running joke in the West that Chinese want all your know-how and afterwards send you home because they then consider you useless for them. In such a climate of mutual mistrust you can't cooperate and recent Chinese history doesn't provide good examples of cooperation (Mao snatching nuclear technology from the Soviets).

Mao snatching nuclear tech? Wait you know what the sino soviet split is right? And you know when the chinese first detonated their nuclear weapon?


Btw. isn't this a place to express your personal point of view. It would be nice if you said I beg to disagree instead of using a steamroller on it.

LOL, so you're admitting his argument was too good? :p
It is a place to express your personal point of view, and it's also a place to critique it.

The DF-21 currently is a back-up for a green water navy without carriers to excercise some kind of area denial against a superior carrier backed-up naval force. That's the essence of the whole discussion and that's the summary of assassin's mace approach. Could it be that you tripped over an inflated nationalistic ego in order to misread statements?

You make it sound like if the PLAN had carriers it would be used as an area denial weapon when it clearly wouldn't.

DF-21D is an area denial weapon on it's own to prevent the US from operating in the westpac during a time of crisis, it has nothing to do with the type of navy you have. You can have a blue water navy and still require area denial weapons.
They've been operating in somalia for three years straight now. I call that a step towards building a blue water navy, you're a few decades behind on your predictions I think.

to be honest it would be stupid for china to counter the US's supercarriers with her own. It's like saying to stop a bullet you should fire a bullet right back when there's a far easier remedy of just wearing bodyarmour instead...


--

Kurt. What exactly is your argument. I'm reading lots of ridiculous premises which are being countered but they lead to no conclusion.
 
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