Australia to looking at buying/leasing nuclear subs to counter PLAN Subs?

Re: Australia to looking at buying/leasing nuclear subs to counter Chinese threat?

collins said:

it is common knowledge in the Aussie submariner community. but what I will say is this. Australians are starting to worry much more about nuclear deterrence as China ramps up its military spending. a top defence expert, professor hugh white, just published a book on the "china choice", which claimed it was America's choice. but really this is Australia's choice too. Australians never really felt threatened during the cold war, but they are much more worried about existential threats with an assertive PLAN that appears to want to project power. this is why SSNs are gradually getting more support.

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As far as I know, the South China Sea is completely disconnected from Australia because anything will have to go through Indonesia beforehand.

The 091s can be heard from 100 miles away whereas the 092 barely leaves its Yellow Sea base for strategic reasons. It's simply impossible for any SSK to travel thousands of miles without getting resupplied.

Of course, what you say is feasible but at least show us an Aussie forum post or something. I just find it hard to believe that Aussie media never wrote a single piece if a Chinese nuclear attack submarine went through the entire Indonesia to venture into Australian waters.

cn_habs said:

As far as I know, the South China Sea is completely disconnected from Australia because anything will have to go through Indonesia beforehand.

The 091s can be heard from 100 miles away whereas the 092 barely leaves its Yellow Sea base for strategic reasons. It's simply impossible for any SSK to travel thousands of miles without getting resupplied.

Of course, what you say is feasible but at least show us an Aussie forum post or something. I just find it hard to believe that Aussie media never wrote a single piece if a Chinese nuclear attack submarine went through the entire Indonesia to venture into Australian waters.

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i can only contribute what i have been told. note also the quote in the article from a very recently retired Collins class sub commander:

“China continues to build submarines at a rate unmatched anywhere in the world whilst the quality and capability of [its] fleet increases faster than [its] GDP,” said James Harrap, a former captain of two Australian submarines.



methinks that sounds like an Aussie sub commander concerned about developments.

cn_habs said:

As far as I know, the South China Sea is completely disconnected from Australia because anything will have to go through Indonesia beforehand.

The 091s can be heard from 100 miles away whereas the 092 barely leaves its Yellow Sea base for strategic reasons. It's simply impossible for any SSK to travel thousands of miles without getting resupplied.

Of course, what you say is feasible but at least show us an Aussie forum post or something. I just find it hard to believe that Aussie media never wrote a single piece if a Chinese nuclear attack submarine went through the entire Indonesia to venture into Australian waters.

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in case i was not clear, my point is that i would speculate that Australia's navy is very worried about China's capability to stealthily project power into its littoral waters in the next 10-20 years, too.

Re: Australia to looking at buying/leasing nuclear subs to counter Chinese threat?

bd popeye said:

Will you post some news article to prove your point? thanks.

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Pop eye I don't know what the current situation is , but certainly in the past , circa 70's late 80's our airforce Orions have on the odd occassion sited what thought to be either Soviet or Chinese and on one occasion that I know of photographed, what our left leaning government (Labour) were to use the term unidentified nuclear submarine deep into the South Pacific.


the link below explores just one of the few occasions a sub was spotted, and as was popular at the time to suggest it was the Americans. Unfortunately it happened when there were no such things as internet defence forums.



".......The first sighting of the submarine was made by two Cook Islanders when they were traveling on an inter-island flight. Three days later there was a second report of sighting by two Tahitian fishermen. At this stage, the New Zealand Air Force moved in and sent two Orion aircraft in search of the submarine...... New Zealand peace researcher Allan Wilks takes up the story.

Allan Wilks: It seems that the plane took off at midday that day and they actually obtained a clearance to fly directly back to New Zealand. But then, instead of flying back to New Zealand, they diverted them through the other side of the island and they started flying a path back and forth in the area where the submarine had been
seen just that morning and they discovered the submarine within an hour or two and so they radioed back to New Zealand and another Orion was sent up and for the next two and a half days they kept that submarine under continual surveillance and, apparently, they were dropping sono voi into the sea all the time and the sono ]voi picked up the noises of the engines and so on made by the submarine and from that they were able to recognise it as a nuclear submarine, because nuclear submarines make different noises than diesel submarines obviously, and they were also able to identify the nationality of the submarine. ............."


So what do you think P.E Would the US. take the trouble to disguise one of their nuc. sub /subs into soviet looking ones to scare the living bejezzers out of us Nz/Aussies etc down here?

Re: Australia to looking at buying/leasing nuclear subs to counter Chinese threat?

collins said:

in case i was not clear, my point is that i would speculate that Australia's navy is very worried about China's capability to stealthily project power into its littoral waters in the next 10-20 years, too.

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So Aussie experts predict that Indonesia will somehow allow Chinese subs to go through its vast country at will? Unless the Aussie navy pulls another stunt like passing through the Taiwan Strait, Chinese subs will not be deployed further than the SCS.

Have you seen any anti Australian sentiment from the Chinese media? Way to destroy a mutually beneficial relationship and bite the hand that feeds you.

Re: Australia to looking at buying/leasing nuclear subs to counter Chinese threat?

cn_habs said:

So Aussie experts predicts that Indonesia will somehow allow Chinese subs to go through its vast country at will? Unless the Aussie navy pulls another stunt like passing through the Taiwan Strait, Chinese subs will not be deployed further than the SCS.

Have you seen any anti Australian sentiment from the Chinese media? Way to destroy a mutually beneficial relationship and bite the hand that feeds you.

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actually, there is a fair bit of anti-Aussie sentiment from the Chinese media. also see the post directly above documenting Chinese or Ruski nukes in Aussie waters

Re: Australia to looking at buying/leasing nuclear subs to counter Chinese threat?

bd popeye said:

There are several factors in this whole proposal that say.. nope.. ain't gonna happen.

1) The RAN has never operated a Nuclear ship of any type.

2) there are zero nuclear trained techs in the RAN.

3) that means that those techs would need to be trained in the US.

4) further training would be need for Virginia class sub-systems. This training would take about two plus years for each enlisted sailor involved. Nuclear power officer training is longer.

5) there are zero shipyards in AUS to upkeep an SSN or any nuclear ship.

6) The ship cost initially $2.3 Billion USD with an operating cost of $50 million USD a year.

In my opinion..not gonna happen.

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Found some references. This is by Rex Patrick in Sea 100:

"Chinese submarine patrol numbers are rising.
Declassified US Naval Intelligence data suggest that
12 patrols were conducted in 2008 following on from
six in 2007, two 2006 none in 2005...

There is a better than even chance that sometime
in the next three years China will send one of its
submarines dived through the Lombok Strait … and
Australia won’t be ready to respond...

Note that Open source reporting already tells us a
regional SSN has passaged dived though the Straits
this year: India’s INS Chakra on its delivery journey
from Vladivostok to Visakhapatnam."

collins said:

actually, there is a fair bit of anti-Aussie sentiment from the Chinese media. also see the post directly above documenting Chinese or Ruski nukes in Aussie waters

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If you could any type of link to back up all of your claims here? Googling doesn't yield any relevant results.

When the Aussie navy intentionally went through the Strait of Taiwan within reach of Chinese mainland, the only confrontation between Australia and China in recent history occurred .

Everything else sounds another Tom Clancy novel.

Following the latest quotes you provided I found this:

With China increasing its submarine patrols along South East Asia’s Sea Lines of Control, increased maritime tensions are likely.

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Unless Australian generals plan to conquer and colonize the most populous Muslim country in the world, how are Chinese subs patrolling the SCS in international waters threatening Australia? Have they even looked at how far SCS is far Northern Australia?

Those Chinese subs could even be there to act as a deterrent to the pirates who might hijack Aussie coal containers on their way to China. :lol:

Re: Australia to looking at buying/leasing nuclear subs to counter Chinese threat?

collins said:

it is common knowledge in the Aussie submariner community. but what I will say is this. Australians are starting to worry much more about nuclear deterrence as China ramps up its military spending. a top defence expert, professor hugh white, just published a book on the "china choice", which claimed it was America's choice. but really this is Australia's choice too. Australians never really felt threatened during the cold war, but they are much more worried about existential threats with an assertive PLAN that appears to want to project power. this is why SSNs are gradually getting more support.

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How is getting a nuclear sub nuclear deterrence if your first article stipulates it will only carry conventional arms?

Australia practice its own sea denial doctrine, and RAN/RAF assets are first and foremost are intended keep enemies from landing on the shore.
Thus primary concerns and capability build up are towards Australia's adjacent neighbor which is Indonesia, with all other threats (including China) coming in second.

The current submarine project is heavily criticized, because :
1. Collins class track record was horrendous
2. Expensive
3. Ties with Indonesia is warming

To allocate the previous budget to a nuclear base submarine capabilities will only expand the operating cost, notwithstanding the operational difficulties operating and maintaining the nuclear subs with different rules and procedures, which will happen, again track record proves even Collins class have it's difficulties in operation.
Not to mention to base a strategic move based on uncertain informations about Chinese submarine operations, while there is no imminent threat and relation with China is very favorable.

In short converting the current plan to SSN is unnecessary, complicated and expensive for Australia, while at the same time stoking fear and upset in the region.

I agree with Popeye that the chances of the US approving a deal like this are close to zero. To date the USN has sold exaclty... one half of an SSN to an ally. Specifically the rear half of HMS Dreadnought back in the late 50s. And that was because we were already developing our own nuclear subs and had the infrastructure in place to support a program of nuclear subs. Australia has traditionally had an anti-nuclear leaning, remember back in the 80s when HMS Invincible was refused access to a drydock in Sydney because she might have been carrying nuclear weapons? Admittedly that was about munitions not propulsion, but to the general public nuclear is nuclear, ie all bad.

Given Australia's geographic position, the 12 SSKs currently proposed makes more sense on many levels, they can cover a larger area than say 6 SSNs could (remember operational cycles would mean out of 12 SSKs, 4-6 would be available at any time but with 6 SSNs only 2-3 would be at sea normally, the balance in both cases being in dock/refit/ on leave). The RAN cannot afford to operate a large fleet of Frigates to protect her coast line so relies on a laarge fleet of Armidale class OPVs in order to be in more places at once. Quantity has a quality of it's own here, as such the SSNs will always lose out to the SSKs in this argument.

Bottom line, the US will make friendly noises about this but won't sell any SSNs to Australia or anyone else for that matter. Australia may make noises about wanting them but it's not just the straight cost of buying the subs, it's the cost of the infrastructure to support them that would kill any deal. This may be the slippery political intention anyway, to transfer any political capital in favour of the SSNs to the SSK purchase to bolster what has been said earlier, to be an unpopular choice.

Also, slightly miffed no consideration was given to buying Astute class SSNs, as they are bloody good boats and we have spare capacity in the programme!