Lyle Goldstein thinks horizontal escalation with Iran is a strategy China can adopt in response to AUKUS.
Instead of directly confronting AUKUS, the strategy will be to sell sophisticated naval equipment to Iran. As a war between the US and Iran is likely within the next 5 years, a China-backed Iranian Navy will divert US naval resources to forward deployment in the Middle East rather than Pacific.
Instead of directly confronting AUKUS, the strategy will be to sell sophisticated naval equipment to Iran. As a war between the US and Iran is likely within the next 5 years, a China-backed Iranian Navy will divert US naval resources to forward deployment in the Middle East rather than Pacific.
Brilliant, using the Anglo American strategy against themselves. Employing a third party to make war on your enemy and bleed them white.
Iran and Saudi Arabia just had a reapproachment lately.
China selling sophisticated naval equipment to Iran would have to be done dilligently and carefully in order to not risk riling up Saudi Arabia too much. An equivalent sale of military equipments to Riyadh by Beijing is highly recommended, in the meantime.
The key would be to make sure that Riyadh and Tehran would not be holding daggers at each other's throat in order for Iran to better focus on the regional and abroad threats.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The Iranian card is definitely being played. The SA-Iran detente is a critical pre-requisite to clear the way for China to play this card. Because unlike the Americans, China actually thinks more than one step ahead when making big strategic moves.
The Israelis must be secretly cursing Trump and Netanyahu. If they haven’t move Israel so radically against China, China might have not played this card out of consideration for Sino-Israeli ties.
The Israelis must be secretly cursing Trump and Netanyahu. If they haven’t move Israel so radically against China, China might have not played this card out of consideration for Sino-Israeli ties.
allowing the mysterious death of a chinese ambasssor to Israel during pompeo’s stint as Secretary of State definitely didn’t help China Israeli ties.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
You might want to check on Pompeo’s travel arrangements when the Chinese ambassador mysteriously died to remove all doubt about what went down.
...did not want to see China-US ties grow any more hostile. Netanyahu and his strategists understood a hostile China-US relationship would endanger Israel. The US would pull planes and ships from the Middle East to the Pacific and China would through horizontal escalation support Iran.
Here is what Yossi Cohen, Netanyahu's spy chief, said during his retirement speech in 2021. Iran, Taiwan, horizontal escalation, etc. are not mentioned together. However, given he was in charge then of fighting a shadow war with Iran, I don't think it's wild speculation to believe he had Iran on his mind when he warned the US to not get any more hostile against China.
If the hour-long talk is a bit too much to sit through, the Q&A segment in the 2nd half of the programme is still worth checking out which is simply golden with the way Keating laid the smackdown on every single one of those journos as they just lined up and took it full blunt one after the other -
Q&A starts @ -
EDIT: Just realised Lethe has already posted it. Sorry for the repost
Q&A starts @ -
EDIT: Just realised Lethe has already posted it. Sorry for the repost
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