Artificial Intelligence thread
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my take on the entire AI discussion. America is cooked on AI and the people involved in policy making has no idea why.
btw, if anyone can figure out what this picture I posted is, then you have a clue.
America is at the Nazi Germany level of desperation where they are looking for any Wunderwaffe. Cause they know without a miracle they cannot stop China from surpassing them.
AGI is the biggest Wunderwaffe right now. Chip restrictions are another. US military is looking for mass adoption of cheap drones to fight China, the biggest producer of drones!
China is doing the right things by focusing on AI efficiency and applications. They are not spending gazillions on AI. They are spending some, but not the biggest priority right now I would say. Self-reliance on Chips is the biggest focus for China and that is where the big money is being spent.
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US policy makers are most likely operating off of incomplete data. Recently I've seen numerous citations of this report by the think tank Epoch AI (which shows that the US controls 75% of "global GPU cluster performance" while China controls only 15%): . The report appears to be well-researched at first glance (particularly for US GPU clusters), but if you read the actual article they published, it will indicate that their estimates for China are flawed, as their research criteria for China consisted of "two Chinese-language analysts conducted targeted searches of systems in China and Hong Kong" and a redacted Approaches section:
This is a garbage in, garbage out situation. US policy makers are convinced their sanctions are working because data sets like these bolster their claims. Even if, in the back of their heads, they're aware that the estimates could be wrong, from a career perspective it is much better for politicians to shift the blame to the data providers and to say that they did the best they could, given the data they had, than to really question the data.
This is a garbage in, garbage out situation. US policy makers are convinced their sanctions are working because data sets like these bolster their claims. Even if, in the back of their heads, they're aware that the estimates could be wrong, from a career perspective it is much better for politicians to shift the blame to the data providers and to say that they did the best they could, given the data they had, than to really question the data.