ARM cuts ties with Huawei, threatening future chip designs

manqiangrexue said:

I am conflicted on this. On the one hand, it's always good to see American companies like these and FedEx turn on their own government for money; it's what capitalism is all about. But on the other hand, I was more excited at the prospect of finally having the Chinese market, the largest market in the world, reserved for Chinese players so they finally have the incentive to exalt Chinese technology to the top of the world. It would be a disaster if Chinese corporations were to regain their confidence in foreign tech supply thinking that this rebellious demonstration meant that future governmental attempts to weaponize tech supply lines will be similarly routed. I don't know what to make of this but hopefully, this will be the best of both worlds; Huawei will have continued access to US technology to study from, but it will still wean its need from them with continuous reminders of hostility from Trump's belligerent flapping mouth.

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Uh no. Many of the US suppliers would be replaced by European or Asian suppliers, rather than Chinese companies.

Plus no Chinese corporation can have confidence in having access to US tech, given what has happened and the large list of Chinese companies still on the radar.

CMP said:

chinese chip makers already announced that there is no way for them to reach the china 2025 milestones without us tech. so the reality is that independence is a medium term project that will require a decade or more. in the short term, maintaining supplies is the way to maximize gdp growth

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Yes. I agree that it is a medium term project.

It will be very interesting to see how much Chinese R&D spending jumps this year and also in the following years.

CMP said:

chinese chip makers already announced that there is no way for them to reach the china 2025 milestones without us tech. so the reality is that independence is a medium term project that will require a decade or more. in the short term, maintaining supplies is the way to maximize gdp growth

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A couple of no names and "analysts'" opinions are not "Chinese chip-makers." The title makes it sound like a group of tech heads got together and had a meeting with CCP leaders and concluded that. In actuality, the reporter went around looking for people who say what he wants his story to say (even if they have to misquote them out of context) and if he didn't find anyone, they're just "people who asked to remain anonymous." That article was full of people with no names who supported the title, an "analyst" who was really not qualified to comment on the big picture requiring knowledge on the secrets of many companies, and 2 real people who did not really say what the title was saying, but were quoted to kinda appear that way. In any case, an insider who had Beijing's interests in heart would never do this interview anyway and say we can't do it even if they have not yet found a way to do it.

The toughest thing to overcome is people who "can't do it" because they don't want to and there are easier ways through foreign tech. When it's apparent that their lives depend on them doing it themselves, then "I can't do it," becomes "How can I do it?" And then even they are shocked at what they can accomplish!

AndrewS said:

Uh no. Many of the US suppliers would be replaced by European or Asian suppliers, rather than Chinese companies.

Plus no Chinese corporation can have confidence in having access to US tech, given what has happened and the large list of Chinese companies still on the radar.

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Well, China needs to be careful of the influence and desperation that a declining US can have over there Europeans and other Asians. While going to them after a US ban is the second line, the current strategy and research are aimed at making replacements should all of them fall to US pressure as well. After all, it would be foolish to fail to expand/apply what is learned from one experience to similar scenarios.

manqiangrexue said:

In actuality, the reporter went around looking for people who say what he wants his story to say (even if they have to misquote them out of context) and if he didn't find anyone, they're just "people who asked to remain anonymous."

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I can't believe I once had even a modicum of respect for the Western press. They really are the fake, fake, disgusting news. Once upon a time I was horrified when I saw that Wikileaks video of an American helicopter shredding an Al-Jazeera journalist; now I think that helicopter crew did a public service.

I think it's time to be prepared for sanctions on companies like Alibaba and Tencent as well. If they can't get hardware, it's gonna be tuff.

As more sanctions takes effect, it looks like China will just stop all exports of rare earths and shut down related refining facilities.

Restore supply or not, once the trust is broken, the harm's been done.

There's just no turning back for such issues. Now that Chinese companies, and companies world-wide, have seen how much brute force the US is willing to exert to a private company such as Huawei as a bargaining chip in trade talks, they will make a conscious effort to diversify suppliers even if the ban is lifted tomorrow.

The lingering question in everyone's mind would be, you could lift the ban today, but what about tomorrow? If the US feel like it they could just re-instate the ban basically anytime it wants to.

So at this point, China is already on an irreversible path to self-development and self-reliance on semiconductors.

The key is the US ban on Huawei has broken many people's perception and impression of the US and its government. Many people in China used to believe that the US wouldn't do such a thing to a private company. Now that pipe dream is gone, almost all Chinese will have learnt a lesson or two about the US.

Sorry for the late question; these few days emerge a news that the US wants its 5G equipment to be designed and manufactured outside of China which may eventually lead to two 5G standards. My question is, doesn't the US already have 5G running in some parts of the country? What equipment and standard are those equipment from?

lol it has fake 5g. 5GE. nokia. mmwave (the inferior standard)

CMP said:

chinese chip makers already announced that there is no way for them to reach the china 2025 milestones without us tech. so the reality is that independence is a medium term project that will require a decade or more. in the short term, maintaining supplies is the way to maximize gdp growth

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The major obstacle is a lack of leading edge process technology, manufacturing tools, and materials industry.
The Chinese government needs to pick 2-3 national champions in each category and fund them.
The chip designs proper could easily happen in 4-5 years.