An attack on Iran is an economic attack on China

An attack on Iran is an economic attack on China

An attack on Iran is an economic attack on China. Iran is a major daily exporter of energy to China. If Iran's economy or infrastructure is attacked, it will be an attempt to strike against China's economy.
1) "Iran supplies about 14% of China's oil."
2) "China's state Sinopec agreed to buy 250 million tons of LNG(Liquefied natural gas) over 30 years from Iran, as well as to develop the giant Yadavaran field."
3) "Iran's Petroleum Minister announced that Tehran would like to see China replace Japan as Iran's largest oil importer. "

Late but may be not too late Beijing is recognizing that a massive US air campaign against Iran and a subsequent secondary action against Sudan would have a disastrous impact on China's energy supply.

The destruction of China's investments in Iran and Sudan would be indeed tantamount to a war of aggression against vital chinese interests. Consequently China is currently working in lieu with Russia to prevent an escalation but China has also to prepare for the worst and this is as french FM Bernard Kouchner correctly said: war. Nonetheless the US and her western european allies should know that violating vital interests of major powers like China and Russia would come at a devastating cost ... (...even the ´successful´ subjugation of a regional power like Iran would come at a high price, at least not only at the gas pump!)

Lets hope that rational minds prevail...

Lets hope that rational minds prevail... What is rational? It is all a psychological game. One person says does China have a right to have oil. Another person says does the US have a right to protect US and Israel. It is all an illusion, it is all about oil and power.

It is all about oil and power. China needs to have stable energy sources and the US needs to supports the dollar by backing it with oil sales that use dollars.

Bush right now is thinking if I attack Iran I might be able to save the dollar from crashing. Who wants to be the president when the dollar crashes? Many rich people are actually now trying and hoping for a crash of the dollar.

The American public wants out of Iraq and some people are calling for another war into Iran. I mean this is coming close to WWIII. I wonder if you knew that both WWII and WWI were about the currency and the economy crashing in Germany. The rich stay rich, the poor stay poor, and the innocent die.

"Iran vows retaliation if Israel attacks"


Iran submarines could they retaliate an attack by the US military by attacking the US mainland? I said this before. I think it is possible.

Uh... If Israel does strike Iran, it will target its nuclear energy infrastructure. They have little motivation to destroy oil or gas pipelines.

Even if China wants to intervene in an U.S.-Iran war, there's nothing the Chinese military can do in the Middle East, being so far away from East Asia. No aircraft carriers, no advanced subs, no fighter jets. The U.S. knows this as well, I just hope Iran knows it too so its "president" would stop baiting the U.S..

daveman said:

Even if China wants to intervene in an U.S.-Iran war, there's nothing the Chinese military can do in the Middle East, being so far away from East Asia. No aircraft carriers, no advanced subs, no fighter jets. The U.S. knows this as well, I just hope Iran knows it too so its "president" would stop baiting the U.S..

Click to expand...

well, if there are always carriers. dont forget about those. also, IF US fights a war with Iran, i don thtink the US citiaens will be very happy. just when we thought out troops are coming back, they are at it again. this time in Iran, the casulties will be much higher since Iran is somewhat more organized than Iraq was when the war began

I don't understand what you're saying about the carriers.

I would think that such an attack would be limited in nature to air and missile strikes against suspected Iranian nuclear facilities, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and command and control.

Iran is no little spoiler like that fruitcake Qadhafi who just needed a little spanking with operation ´El Dorado canyon´back in 1986 and afterwards decided to behave.

There exists no option of a limited air campaign against a country with 600 IRBM's and a vast subterranean infrastructure lying under massive mountain ranges. (...just think about what they have done with their resources after master strategist G.W. Bush put them on the ´hit list´almost six years ago. Iran had oil revenues of around 230-250 bn $ during this period and consumed 90-95 mil tons of steel and 180-190 mil tons of cement since '02, so figure out!)

Additionally attacking Iran would be tantamount to a declaration of war to all Shia muslims with majorities in Iraq, Azerbaidzhan, Bahrain and strong minorities in Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan, Kuwait and Pakistan, overall 130 million people streching from the mediterranean to the indian border. The entire midlle east would explode right in the face of all major powers and the resulting energy crisis would cause the world economy to collapse.

There are effectively only two options for Washington:
1. Make a deal and live with a nuclear capable Iran (just like the US did with NK and Pakistan).
2. Apply overwhelming force with a massive month long air campaign possibly followed up by a ground invasion destroying surviving remnants of the regime (though the troops for this operation would have to come from a limited US draft) . After that Iran would look like Germany or Japan in 1945 and more than a million Iranian's would be dead (compared with the carnage in Iraq my estimate for a country of three times Iraq's population is indeed conservative) but of course there would be enough fanatic insurgents (guess what kind of ´super Iraq´ the Pasdaran have prepared there!) in the Zagros mountains to carry on guerrilla warfare for decades and draining the resources of the US.

^ Agreed, there is no "limited" air strike option for Iran. Unless the intention is to level Tehran and hope the country disintegrates into factions.

I wonder, though, in which direction the attack would come. Anything from the west would be very difficult, as it would need to go through mountains. From the East, it would be difficult to resupply since Afghanistan is land-locked. Only if Pakistan goes along with the operation can it work.