American Economics Thread

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 31:
Government spending is growing at an exponential rate. As you can see from the chart below, federal spending is now about 14 times higher than it was in 1980. And federal spending is about $3 trillion more per year than it was in the last full year before the pandemic. Once the pandemic subsided, federal spending dropped a bit, but now it’s starting to rise at an exponential rate again…
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The U.S. government debt is exploding. The U.S. government has $36 trillion in debt. The national debt is roughly 36 times larger than it was when Ronald Reagan took office.
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Money supply growth is a horror show. Just look at how quickly M1 has skyrocketed over the past two years. During the pandemic, M1 has gone from about $4 trillion to over $20 trillion. The Federal Reserve is clearly guilty of economic negligence.
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Household debt has skyrocketed to almost unbelievable levels over the past 30 years. American households have also been accumulating debt at an alarming rate. Total household and nonprofit debt only surpassed the $2 trillion mark in the mid-1980s, but now total household and nonprofit debt in the U.S. has surpassed the $20 trillion mark. Household debt alone accounts for approximately $18 trillion of that total…
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Total debt (government, corporate and consumer) in the United States now exceeds $100 trillion (more than 350% of GDP).
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More than 100 million unemployed American adults are considered “out of the labor force.” When an American adult is not working, he or she is placed in one of two categories. For years, government bureaucrats have kept the number of Americans “officially unemployed” at a very low level, while the number of Americans who are thrown into the “out of the labor force” category has continued to grow. During the Great Recession, the number of Americans considered “officially unemployed” plus the number of Americans considered “out of the labor force” never exceeded 100 million. Today, the number of Americans considered “out of the labor force” exceeds 102 million…
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Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 32:
According to the Washington Post, it appears that federal tax revenue in 2025 will be down about 10% compared to last year.
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Senior tax officials are bracing for a sharp drop in revenue collected this spring, as an increasing number of individuals and businesses spurn filing their taxes or attempt to skip paying balances owed to the Internal Revenue Service, according to three people with knowledge of tax projections.

Treasury Department and IRS officials are predicting a decrease of more than 10 percent in tax receipts by the April 15 deadline compared with 2024, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share nonpublic data. That would amount to more than $500 billion in lost federal revenue; the IRS collected $5.1 trillion last year. For context, the U.S. government spent $825 billion on the Defense Department in fiscal 2024.

“The idea of doing that in one year, it’s hard to grapple with how meaningful of a shift that represents,” said Natasha Sarin, president of the Yale Budget Lab and a senior Biden administration tax official.
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Another really bad sign is that consumer sentiment has fallen to a 29-month low…
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Consumer sentiment in the U.S. fell for the third consecutive month in March, now down 22% from December 2024 before President Donald Trump took office, a new survey found.

The University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment fell to 57.9 this month, a 29-month low. The index showed participants’ expectations for the future of their personal finances and the stock market had deteriorated. It also showed that Americans are expecting inflation to get worse, not better, during a time when many are worried tariffs will raise prices at the checkout aisle.
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Morgan Stanley is planning to lay off approximately 2,000 employees...
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Wall Street heavyweight Morgan Stanley (MS) is planning to lay off about 2,000 employees later this month, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

The reduction of 2% to 3% of the company’s workforce, excluding financial advisers, was aimed at improving operational efficiency, the person said, requesting anonymity.
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Meanwhile, stores are closing permanently at a breakneck pace. See what Dollar General decided to do...
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Another national retailer will be closing stores in 2025.
Dollar General announced in its fourth quarter earnings report last week it is planning to close 96 Dollar General stores and 45 Popshelf stores during the first quarter of 2025, while another six Popshelf stores will be converted into Dollar General stores.

“As we look to build on the substantial progress we made on our Back to Basics work in fiscal 2024, we believe this review was appropriate to further strengthen the foundation of our business,” said Todd Vasos, Dollar General’s chief executive officer, in the earnings report.

Overall, it is being projected that somewhere around 15,000 stores will close in the United States in 2025.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Part 32:
According to the Washington Post, it appears that federal tax revenue in 2025 will be down about 10% compared to last year.
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Another really bad sign is that consumer sentiment has fallen to a 29-month low…
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Morgan Stanley is planning to lay off approximately 2,000 employees...
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Meanwhile, stores are closing permanently at a breakneck pace. See what Dollar General decided to do...
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Another national retailer will be closing stores in 2025.


Overall, it is being projected that somewhere around 15,000 stores will close in the United States in 2025.

If a scrape the bottom of the barrel like Dollar General is closing, it means that the bottom half of the country really has no money to spend.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 33:
The number of foreclosures in the United States last year increased by 174% compared to 2021, and mortgage delinquencies have been rising in recent months.
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Lenders initiated foreclosure proceedings on 253,306 U.S. properties in 2024, down 6 percent from 2023 but up 174 percent from 2021. This was still 25 percent lower than 2019 and 88 percent less than the 2009 peak of 2,139,005 starts
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Today, in the United States, the richest 50% own 97.5% of all wealth, and the richest The poorest 50% own just 2.5% of all wealth…
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The richest half of American families owned about 97.5% of national wealth as of the end of 2024, while the bottom half held 2.5%, according to the latest numbers from the Federal Reserve.
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Much of the country is barely surviving from month to month, and meanwhile, the percentage of wealth held by the top 0.1% has reached a new all-time high...
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The top 0.1% expanded their share of total wealth to a record 13.8% at the year’s end, up from 13% in the same period of 2020.
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According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, employers in the United States announced 172,017 job cuts in the month of February.
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U.S.-based employers announced 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest total for the month since 2009 when 186,350 job cuts were recorded. It is the highest monthly total since July 2020 when 262,649 cuts were announced, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

February’s total is a 245% increase from the 49,795 cuts announced one month prior. It is a 103% increase from the 84,638 cuts announced in the same month last year.
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Overall, U.S. employers have announced 221,812 job cuts in the first two months of this year. That’s up 33% from the total recorded in the first two months of 2024…
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So far this year, employers have announced 221,812 job cuts, the highest year-to-date (YTD) total since 2009 when 428,099 job cuts were planned. It is up 33% from the 166,945 cuts announced during the same period in 2024.
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Meanwhile, home sales remain depressingly low. According to Wells Fargo economists, total home sales in January were ‘only modestly above the weak rate experienced between 2008 and 2010’...
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In January, total home sales reached 4.7 million, a figure Wells Fargo economists say is ‘only modestly above the weak rate experienced between 2008 and 2010.’ Before the pandemic, monthly home sales averaged around 6 million.

Housing demand soared during the pandemic, sending prices and mortgage rates to new highs. But now, high costs and borrowing rates are keeping both buyers and sellers on the sidelines.

Homeowners who secured a low mortgage rate during the pandemic or who have paid off their home aren't selling since they do not want to give up their low rates.
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According to Gregory Mannarino, small business startups are failing at an alarming rate...
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According to the latest data, a staggering 90 percent of U.S. small business startups fail, this is the highest level in history.
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The truth is that the average American pays dozens of different taxes each year. Here are some examples of the insidious forms of taxation that drain household wealth…
Building Permit Tax
Capital Gains Tax
CDL License Tax
Cigarette Tax
Corporate Income Tax
Court Fines (an indirect tax)
Dog License Tax
Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)
Fishing License Tax
Food License Tax
Fuel Permit Tax
Gasoline Tax
Gift Tax
Hunting License Tax
Inheritance Tax
IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)
Liquor Tax
Local Income Tax
Luxury Taxes
Marriage License Tax
Medicare Tax
Payroll Taxes
Phone Taxes
Property Taxes
Real Estate Tax
Recreational Vehicle Tax
Road Toll Booth Taxes
Road Usage Taxes (Truckers)
Sales Taxes
School Tax
Septic Permit Tax
Social Security Tax
State Income Tax
State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)
Toll Bridge Taxes
Toll Tunnel Taxes
Traffic Fines (indirect taxation)
Trailer Registration Tax
Utility Taxes
Vehicle License Registration Tax
Vehicle Sales Tax
Watercraft Registration Tax
Well Permit Tax
Workers Compensation Tax
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 34:
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, layoffs in the US were 205% higher in March 2025 than in March 2024…
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Layoffs across the U.S. emerged 205% in March when compared with a year earlier, with last month’s 275,240 job cuts fueled by widespread firings engineered by billionaire Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

March’s layoffs represent the third-highest monthly total ever recorded, Challenger said. The two previous highest monthly totals were recorded in April 2020 and May 2020, when more than 671,000 and 397,000 job cuts, respectively, were recorded, due to the pandemic shuttering the U.S. economy, according to its data.
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In fact, Stellantis immediately announced a wave of layoffs after the new rates were announced...
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Stellantis has “paused production” at some of its Canadian and Mexican auto assembly plants due to the newly announced tariffs — and as a result, some US workers will also be temporarily laid off.

Among those to be laid off are 900 US hourly employees who make powertrains and stampings that supply the affected Canadian and Mexican plants, Stellantis said Thursday. The temporary layoffs are due to reduced production prompted by the tariffs.
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The number of commercial bankruptcies in March 2025 was much higher than the number of commercial bankruptcies in March 2024…
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More companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in March than a year ago, indicating economic stress among U.S. businesses, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI).

“Commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings increased 20 percent in March 2025, with filings climbing to 733 from the 611 filings registered in March 2024,” ABI said in an April 3 statement.
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And during the first three months of this year, U.S. banks filed to close hundreds of local branches…
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Banks filed nearly 400 notices for the planned closures of some of their locations across the U.S. in the first three months of the year, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s (OCC) records.

Only some of these branches have already closed their doors. The closure of others has received approval from the OCC but has not yet been carried through by the bank, which may ultimately decide against it. Many are pending approval from the OCC, an independent federal agency which safeguards the U.S. banking system, making sure it remains accessible to underserved consumers and communities.
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
If a scrape the bottom of the barrel like Dollar General is closing, it means that the bottom half of the country really has no money to spend.

All this is from trends before the tariffs. And the full impact of the tariffs on China won't truly hit until the warehouses are cleared from front loading in about a month from now.

The Dollar stores will have to raise price or go out of business just as record amounts of people need to go to bargain stores to compensate for price increases across the board in other segment of retail.

This is a death spiral to recession with the second lowest consumer confidence in history (exceed only by the lockdown during the Pandemic) that will be hit by an oncoming freight train of tariff induced price hikes for practically every consumer good.
 
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