American Economics Thread

Sinnavuuty

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American Dream!!!
Part 20:

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development revealed that the homeless population in the U.S. jumped 18 percent in just one year…
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Homelessness in the United States soared to the highest level on record, according to government data released Friday.

More than 770,000 people experienced homelessness in 2024, an 18% increase from 2023, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development reported. It was the largest annual increase since HUD began collecting the data in 2007 (excluding the jump from 2021 to 2022, when the agency didn't conduct a full count due to the Covid-19 pandemic).
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The truth is that approximately 150,000 children are living in the streets at this point…
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Massively concerning is that 150,000 children experienced homelessness, a 33% jump in 2024 when compared to the previous year.
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The politicians like to give speeches about affordable housing, but housing just continues to become more unaffordable…
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Rents have continued climbing since briefly dipping lower during the pandemic, as well. As of 2023, nearly half of renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing, qualifying them as cost-burdened, according to the US Census Bureau.
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And now they have entered a time when finding a decent job is going to be quite a bit more difficult…
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US private sector full-time jobs have DROPPED by nearly 2 MILLION over the past year.

Such a drop has never happened outside of recessions.

The only gain in full-time jobs has been in the government sector.
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According to a national survey, approximately 70 percent of U.S. adults believe that the U.S. economy is in poor condition right now…
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About 7 in 10 U.S. adults rate the country’s economic state as very or somewhat poor, up slightly from about 6 in 10 in October. Self-identified Democrats are primarily driving the recent negativity. About 6 in 10 Democrats described the U.S. economy as “good” in October. With Republicans on the verge of controlling the executive and legislative branches, only about half of Democrats say that now.
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That same survey also discovered that about a third of all U.S. adults are either “extremely” or “very” concerned about being able to “afford groceries over the next few months”…
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The new AP-NORC poll shows about one-third of Americans say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about their ability to afford groceries over the next few months. About 3 in 10 are highly worried about being able to afford holiday gifts, gas or electricity.
 

Sinnavuuty

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American Dream!!!
Part 21:

It was expected that credit card defaults would continue to rise this year. But a 50 percent jump is ridiculous…
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Credit card defaults are at their highest level since 2010 as consumers feel increasingly stretched.

As the Financial Times (FT) reported Sunday (Dec. 29), card lenders wrote off $46 billion in seriously delinquent loans in the first nine months of this year, a 50% jump over 2023. That’s the highest level in 14 years, the report said, citing industry data compiled by BankRegData.
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In the last 20 years, there has only been one other year when credit card defaults have reached this level.
BREAKING: US credit card debt is up $51 billion over the last year to a record $1.09 trillion.

This brings total credit card debt up to $344 billion over the last 4 years.

The average interest rate on this debt reached 22%, close to an all-time high, according to Fed data.

In effect, US households now hold a record average credit card debt balance of $10,563.

Even worse?

This does not include "Buy Now, Pay Later" which saw a record $19 billion in holiday purchases in 2024.

Americans are “fighting” inflation with debt.
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An increasing number of Americans have been forced to turn to credit card debt just to make ends meet. At this point, 74.5 percent of all U.S. consumers are carrying at least some credit card debt…
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As covered here earlier this month, the share of consumers carrying at least some card debt is pervasive, at 74.5%, per PYMNTS Intelligence research. While that percentage is more or less static across income levels, it leaps to more than 90% for consumers living paycheck to paycheck and having trouble paying their bills.

The research showed that the average outstanding balance among paycheck-to-paycheck cardholders who have issues paying their bills is $7,038, compared to those who live paycheck to paycheck without such difficulties, who had average outstanding balances of $5,766.
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US economy is highly dependent on consumer spending, but now the bottom third of the economic pyramid is “tapped out”…
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Mark Zandi, the head of Moody’s Analytics, said, “High-income households are fine, but the bottom third of US consumers are tapped out. Their savings rate right now is zero.”
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Joe Scarborough was astonished to learn that the price of butter has reached 7 dollars in some stores in his area…
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“It’s $7… I’m just saying it’s 7,” Brzezinski interrupted.

“Butter is $7… What, is it framed in gold?” Scarborough replied incredulously, with a look of shock on his face.

“It’s seven bucks…. it depends where you go,” Brzezinski stated somberly.
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When Joe Biden took office in 2021, his administration told us that “investment in U.S. infrastructure as a share of GDP has fallen by more than 40 percent since the 1960s”…
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Public investment in U.S. infrastructure as a share of GDP has fallen by more than 40 percent since the 1960s. The World Economic Forum now ranks the United States 13th when it comes to the overall quality of infrastructure.
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In 2021, the official White House website was reporting that 45,000 bridges and 20 percent of our roads were in poor condition…
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More than 45,000 U.S. bridges and 1 in 5 miles of roads are in poor condition, per the American Society of Civil Engineers. In 2007, the I-35 bridge over the Mississippi River in Minneapolis collapsed during rush hour, killing 13 and injuring 121.
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Well, fast forward a few years later and the Department of Transportation is still telling us that “over 40,000 bridges” are in poor condition…
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The Department of Transportation considers 6.8% of the over 600,000 bridges it tracks and rates to be in “poor” condition. That doesn't sound too bad on a percentage basis, but it's over 40,000 bridges in total.
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For example, Consumer Reports says that almost half of all urban roads in the state of California are not currently in acceptable condition…
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Despite an enormous yearly disbursement for highways that tops $21 billion, the Golden State manages to keep just a little more than half their urban roads in acceptable condition. However, this is an outsized job since, in addition to 840 miles of coastline, California boasts more miles of urban roads than any other state and has the second-highest mileage of rural roads in the country.

Data from the National Highway Administration shows California’s roads are the most traveled in the U.S., so it makes sense that the state also has the second-highest number of motor vehicle-related fatalities in the country.
 

Sinnavuuty

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American Dream!!!
Part 22:

Back in 2021, the Biden administration also made a big deal out of the fact that millions of Americans were getting their tap water through lead pipes…
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Millions still get water from lead pipes, despite the fact that exposure to lead has irreversible health effects; In 2015, a state of emergency was declared in Flint, Michigan as citizens learned that their water supply contained toxic levels of lead.
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An article that was published revealed that the EPA is estimating that “more than 9 million service lines” are still made out of lead…
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The EPA estimates that more than 9 million service lines are made of lead, a neurotoxin that can cause nervous system damage, learning disabilities and other health problems, especially in children. If lead pipes corrode, as in the infamous case of Flint, Michigan, they can poison drinking water.

While no amount of lead exposure is safe, the federal rule now requires utilities to notify the public and improve corrosion treatment if lead in their water exceeds 10 parts per billion. Some homes in Syracuse, New York, recently tested at 70 parts per billion.
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Inflation is starting to really accelerate once again, and this is particularly true for food prices…
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There isn't one factor. Bird flu is killing chickens, cutting egg supplies and sending wholesale prices to a record. Extreme heat and dry weather in the world's coffee-growing regions have felt the cost of brews emerging. Chocolate and cereal makers have raised prices for their products, too.

It is a problem for consumers, who are still acclimating to a stretch of bruising inflation following the Covid-19 pandemic. Shoppers are picking up more store-branded groceries and scouring multiple stores for the best deals. Grocery prices in December were roughly 28% higher than they were five years ago, according to the Labor Department.
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Prices on some key staples such as eggs are expected to go much higher in 2025…
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During his 2024 campaign, President-elect Donald Trump repeatedly made the promise that “prices will come down,” BBC reports, but according to two experts, that won’t be happening any time soon — at least when it comes to the price of eggs.

While eggs are already “40% more expensive now than they were a year ago,” KTLA notes, according to the Department of Labor, the raging avian flu epidemic means “it’s about to get even worse.”

The epidemic — which “has already led to the death of more than 100 million egg-laying hens” — according to the report, is expected to spike egg prices “as much as 20% more in 2025.”
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If you go to mortgagecalculator.org, you can calculate the amount of interest that you will pay over the life of your home mortgage. According to that calculator, someone with a $400,000 mortgage at an interest rate of 6.98% over 30 years will end up paying $556,102.18 in interest before the mortgage is finally paid off.

When those 30 years are over, you will have bought a house for yourself and you will also have bought a house for the bankers.
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In 2024, sales of previously-owned homes in the United States fell to the lowest level since 1995…
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U.S. existing-home sales fell in 2024 to the lowest level since 1995, the second straight year of anemic sales due to stubbornly high mortgage rates.

High costs related to homeownership sapped sales again. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered between 6% and 8% since late 2022, making it prohibitively expensive for many Americans to buy homes at current prices, which hit record highs last year. Rising home insurance and property tax costs are also adding to homeowners’ expenses. Unlike mortgage rates, which fluctuate, these costs are poised to continue rising.
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Pending home sales dropped another 4.5 percent last month. That was the fastest rate of decline that we have seen in more than two years…
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Pending home sales fell 4.5% month over month in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest decline since October 2022. They dropped 2.3% year over year.

Homebuyer demand dipped at the end of the year because mortgage rates jumped. After inching downward at the beginning of the month, mortgage rates reversed course halfway through December and have been rising since—in part because the Federal Reserve projected fewer 2025 interest-rate cuts than anticipated. The weekly average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate now sits at 7.04%, the highest level since May, after hitting an early-December low of 6.6%.
 

Sinnavuuty

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American Dream!!!
Part 23:

The proportion of credit card accounts that are just having minimum payments being made on them just hit the highest level in 12 years…
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Americans are not okay financially, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

The share of active credit card accounts making just the minimum payment hit a 12-year high of 10.75% from July through September 2024, based on data from the largest banks in the country, the Philadelphia Fed said on Wednesday. As credit card balances swell, the share of delinquent balances is also worsening, it said.
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The 60-plus-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans just reached the highest level ever recorded for the month of December…
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The 60-plus-day delinquency rate of subprime auto loans rose to 6.15% in December, a new record for December in the data from Fitch, which tracks subprime auto-loan asset-backed securities (ABS), going back to their origins in the early 1990s. Subprime delinquency rates rise to record highs in 2023 and rise further in 2024. They peak seasonally in January in February. If January and February 2025 follow seasonal patterns, subprime delinquency rates will set new all-time highs (gold in the chart below).
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Credit rejection rates have hit levels that we have not seen since the global financial crisis…
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The landscape of American credit has taken a stark turn for the worse, with rejection rates for various forms of credit reaching levels not seen since the financial turmoil of a decade ago. According to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, rejection rates for loans, including credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans, have spiked to 23%. This figure marks the highest recorded since the depths of the financial crisis, signaling a significant contraction in credit availability.

Furthermore, the rejection rate for credit card limit increases has reached nearly 50%, indicating that even those with existing credit lines are facing unprecedented hurdles in expanding their credit.
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Restaurant chains are going bankrupt at the fastest pace since the beginning of the pandemic…
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Chain restaurant bankruptcies are reportedly at their highest level since the pandemic.

Among the most recent examples is the casual dining franchise TGI Friday’s, one of more than a dozen high-profile restaurants to seek bankruptcy protection between January and October of this year, Bloomberg News reported Thursday (Dec. 5), citing BankruptcyData.

According to the report, that's the most through that date since 2020, and next year could bring more turmoil, with restaurant prices jumping due to increased labor costs, supply chain issues and steeper interest expenses, lessening consumer demand for meals away from home.
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After rising 12.7 percent in 2023, the cost of home insurance went up another 10.4 percent in 2024…
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In 2024, insurers raised rates by 10.4 percent as of Dec. 27, which followed a 12.7 percent hike in the previous year, according to the Jan. 21 report from the company.

In total, 33 states saw premiums climb by double digits last year, with the largest spike seen in Nebraska at 22.7 percent. Premiums in Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Utah, and Washington jumped by more than 20 percent.
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The average price of a dozen eggs went up 36 percent in just 12 months, and it is expected to go even higher during the months ahead…
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The average price of a dozen large, grade-A eggs was $4.15 in December, up from $3.65 in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Egg prices were also up more than 36% year-over-year in December, according to the Consumer Price Index.

“Not to be the bearer of bad news, but we’re in this for a while,” said Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board. “Until we have time without a detection, unfortunately this very, very tight egg supply is going to continue.”
 

Sinnavuuty

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American Dream!!!
Part 24:

The household income required to purchase an average home in the U.S. has more than tripled since January 2012…
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In January 2012, the household income required to afford the typical home in the U.S. was $39,223, according to Redfin. As of November 2024, home buyers need to earn $126,764, a 223% increase.
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A “healthcare giant” that operates 16 hospitals in the U.S. has just filed for bankruptcy…
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A healthcare giant that operates 16 hospitals across four states has filed for bankruptcy – with plans to offload several of them.

Prospect Medical Holdings – which also owns 166 clinics across California, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, and employs 12,600 people – filed for Chapter 11 protection in Texas on Saturday.

The company, which was once an active buyer of struggling hospitals, has debts of more than $400 million.
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The hiring rate in the U.S. in the month of November was “the lowest since the early 2010s”…
Hiring was anemic by the end of 2024.

November’s hiring rate of 3.3% is the lowest since the early 2010s when the US was struggling after the Great Recession.
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Kohl’s has decided to permanently shut down 27 “underperforming” stores…
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Twenty-seven “underperforming” Kohl’s stores are set to close this spring.

The locations, named late last week by Kohl’s, will permanently close their doors by April, according to the Wisconsin-based retailer.
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Over 200 Advance Auto Parts stores are up for sale…
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More than 200 Advance Auto Parts stores, either the properties themselves or their leases, are being marketed for sale by Hilco Real Estate.

Raleigh, North Carolina-based Advance Auto, an auto aftermarket parts retailer, has tapped Hilco to manage the disposition of real estate properties and leases that span 46 states. The portfolio includes retail locations and “potential redevelopment parcels situated in densely populated urban areas and along strong commercial corridors,” Hilco, which is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, said Wednesday.
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Approximately 500 Big Lots stores will soon be shut down for good…
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The company buying Columbus-based Big Lots has identified about 500 Big Lots stores, including several in central Ohio, that it plans to close.

Gordon Brothers, a Boston-based investment group, is offering to sell the stores’ leases, indicating that the stores will not remain Big Lots under new ownership.
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Walgreens has announced that it will be permanently closing 1,200 stores…
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The thinning of Walgreens locations has been in the works. Walgreens said in October 2024 it planned to close about 1,200 underperforming stores across the U.S. as a strategy to offset declining profits resulting from low drug reimbursement rates and sluggish retail sales.
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In 2024, a total of 7,325 stores were closed in the United States. That was the highest number that we have seen since the early days of the pandemic…
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Store closures in the U.S. last year hit the highest level since the pandemic — and even more locations are expected to shutter this year, as shoppers’ dollars increasingly go to a few industry winners, according to an analysis by Coresight Research.

Major retailers, including Party City and Macy’s, closed 7,325 stores in 2024, according to the retail advisory group’s data. That’s the sharpest jump since retailers in the U.S. shuttered almost 10,000 stores in 2020, the year when the Covid pandemic began.
 

Sinnavuuty

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American Dream!!!
Part 25:

Coresight Research is projecting that a whopping 15,000 stores will be closed in the U.S. in 2025…
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Retail closings in the U.S. are on the rise.

That’s according to Coresight Research, a research and advisory firm specializing in retail and technology, which predicts approximately 15,000 store closings and 5,800 store openings this year in the U.S.
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Cargo theft in the United States has hit a brand new all-time record high for the second year in a row…
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Cargo theft hit a record high in the U.S. and Canada for the second consecutive year, and the trend is expected to continue as criminal enterprises have become more sophisticated in their methods.

Verisk CargoNet’s annual analysis released this week found that cargo theft emerged 27% from 2023 to 2024, reaching a record 3,625 reported incidents last year with an average value of $202,364 per theft. All told, the losses are estimated at more than $454 million.
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59 percent of Americans don’t even have enough money to pay for a $1,000 emergency expense…
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Most Americans cannot afford a $1,000 emergency expense, with inflation and high interest rates affecting their ability to save adequately, according to a recent survey by consumer services company Bankrate.

A full 59 percent of Americans aren’t in a position to use their savings “to pay for a major unexpected expense, such as $1,000 for an emergency room visit or car repair,” said a Jan. 23 report from the company.
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61 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 35 say that they feel “financially stressed”…
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About 61% of surveyed Americans of ages 18 to 35 are financially stressed, according to a new Intuit survey. About 21% of respondents say their stress has gotten worse over the past year.

Some of the biggest stressors included high cost of living, job instability and growing housing costs. Of those who identified as financially stressed, 32% said handling unexpected emergencies like medical bills, car repairs and home maintenance triggered their anxiety with cash, the report found.
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According to Bloomberg, the cost of living crisis is driving more working Americans than ever to seek assistance from food banks…
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Once a month, Kersstin Eshak visits a food pantry in Loudoun County, Virginia to stretch her family’s budget.

Eshak’s husband works at a big box retailer. She works as a substitute teacher. They have income, but with prices up nearly 23% over the past five years — and still rising — their earnings just don’t stretch quite far enough some months.

Food banks across the nation are seeing a similar story: A post-pandemic wave of demand for food driven by working people caught in America’s cost-of-living crunch.
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Fentanyl is absolutely destroying communities all over America. For example, check out what has been happening in Las Cruces, New Mexico…
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Las Cruces authorities say they first found fentanyl in 2018. In 2020, they confiscated a total of 461 pills.

In 2021, the first year of the Biden administration, fentanyl seizures exploded to more than 22,600 – and continued rising: roughly 70,000 pills were seized in 2022 and nearly 86,000 in 2023.

“It wasn’t in Las Cruces, and then it was, and then it was everywhere. In 2021, it really intensified and we’ve seen that the past few years. During that same period from 2018 to 2021, we saw a huge increase in crime: an 85% increase in violent crime and a 71% increase in property crime,” Las Cruces Chief of Police Jeremy Story stated last year during a virtual press conference on New Mexico’s fentanyl epidemic.
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In 2024, corporate bankruptcies in the United States reached the highest level “since the 2008 financial crisis”.
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US corporate bankruptcies hit their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis - as Americans tighten their belts.
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Homelessness in the U.S. is at the highest level ever recorded, and it is increasing at the fastest pace ever recorded.
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More than 770,000 people experienced homelessness in 2024, an 18% increase from 2023, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development
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Sinnavuuty

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American Dream!!!
Part 26:

Approximately half a million businesses filed for bankruptcy in the U.S. in 2024. That represented a 14 percent increase compared to the previous year…
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Last year in 2024, about 500,000 businesses filed for bankruptcy. That’s 14% more than the year prior.
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More than 7,000 stores will close in the U.S. in 2024, and it is being projected that 15,000 stores will close in the U.S. in 2025…
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And new data by Coresight predicts 2025 could see even more closures.

It predicts 15,000 stores could close this year, and places particular emphasis on more Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, liquidations, and total overhauls (for those retailers that can afford to stay open and remake their business).
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Sales of existing homes haven’t been this low in almost 30 years…
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Existing home sales in the U.S. in 2024 were the lowest in nearly 30 years, as home prices hit an all-time high.

The National Association of Realtors released data that showed existing home sales declined to the lowest level since 1995 last year, with 4.06 million homes sold on an annual basis.
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A majority of the U.S. population struggles to afford “their regular rent or mortgage payments”…
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Nearly 70% of single, divorced or separated people struggle to afford their regular rent or mortgage payments, compared to just over half (52%) of married people, according to a recent Redfin-commissioned survey. More than three-quarters (76%) of respondents who live with their partner but aren't married struggle with housing payments, making them the group most likely to struggle.
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The proportion of U.S. homeowners that are seriously delinquent on their mortgage payments is rising…
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A rising number of homeowners, particularly first-time home buyers and military members and veterans, are missing their monthly payments — and one group says it could be the “canary in the coal mine.”

In 2024, the share of serious delinquencies — which refers to mortgage loans that are over 90 days past due but are not in active foreclosure — will rise to the highest level in nearly two years, according to a monthly report by Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE.
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One expert who was interviewed by CNN is warning that the employment picture is deteriorating because “you’ve already got companies hiring as if they’re in a recession”…
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“That leaves us in a situation where things can essentially flip quite quickly, because you've already got companies hiring as if they're in a recession — even if they're not laying people off,” Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNN this week.
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Apparently hedge funds can see what is coming too, because they are “making a multi-billion-dollar gamble against the US economy”…
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Hedge funds are making a multi-billion-dollar gamble against the US economy, betting Donald Trump’s presidency will result in a massive market crash that could devastate 401(k)s, pensions, and household savings across America.

Data from Goldman Sachs has sent shockwaves through financial circles, revealing a dramatic surge in ‘short’ positions against US stocks – a move that signals a belief the market is headed for a precipitable crash.

January, investors placed 10 times more bets on American stocks falling than on their continued rise, a staggering shift that reflects growing unease over Wall Street’s future under Trump’s leadership.
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According to Google AI, the nation has lost almost 70,000 factories since the year 2000…
The United States has lost nearly 70,000 factories since 2000. This is part of a larger decline in the US manufacturing sector that has also resulted in the loss of over 5 million jobs.
 

Sinnavuuty

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American Dream!!!
Part 27:

Facts -
In July 1979, 19.5 million Americans had manufacturing jobs. Today, only 12.8 million Americans have manufacturing jobs even though the population is much larger than it was in 1979.

In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output. At the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008, manufacturing represented only 11.5 percent of all U.S. economic output. Today, manufacturing represents just 10.3 percent of all U.S. economic output.
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One man who understands the gap between government and the economic statistics of the American economy very well is Eugene Ludwig. He is the president of the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, and was formerly the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency. He is an expert in this field and wrote an article that discussed the growing “disconnect” between government statistics and economic reality…
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Before the presidential election, many Democrats were puzzled by the seeming disconnect between “economic reality” as reflected in various government statistics and the public’s perceptions of the economy on the ground. Many in Washington bristled at the public’s failure to register how strong the economy really was. They charged that right-wing echo chambers were conning voters into believing entirely preposterous narratives about America’s decline.

What they rarely considered was whether something else might be responsible for the disconnect — whether, for instance, government statistics were fundamentally flawed. What if the numbers supporting the case for broad-based prosperity were themselves misrepresentations? What if, in fact, darker assessments of the economy were more authentically tethered to reality?
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According to Ludwig, everyone is told that the official unemployment rate in the US is very low, but in reality “nearly one in four workers is functionally unemployed in America today” …
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I don’t believe those who went into this past election taking pride in the unemployment numbers understood that the near-record low unemployment figures — the figure was a mere 4.2 percent in November — counted homeless people doing occasional work as “employed.” But the implications are powerful. If you filter the statistic to include as unemployed people who can’t find anything but part-time work or who make a poverty wage (roughly $25,000), the percentage is actually 23.7 percent. In other words, nearly one of every four workers is functionally unemployed in America today — hardly something to celebrate.
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Even though the vast majority of the population is covered by health insurance, 62 percent of the two million personal bankruptcies that are filed each year in the United States are caused by medical debt.
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And, finally, according to the article, sixty-two (62%) of the two million personal bankruptcies filed each year are the result of medical debt.
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One survey found that American families have accumulated more than $220 billion in medical debt.
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Using this approach, the SIPP survey suggests that total medical debt owed was at least $220 billion by the end of 2021. This total represents the aggregate medical debt for people with over $250 and top coded up to $225,000 in medical debt. This is considerably less than the total medical debt reported in SIPP, but still much more than the total amounts estimated by others using credit reports.
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A three-day hospital stay will typically cost somewhere around $30,000.
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The average cost of a 3-day hospital stay is around $30,000
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A 25-year-old Nevada mother received a $700,000 bill after her daughter spent about two months in the neonatal intensive care unit.
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Her daughter was born with Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS), a rare genetic disorder, and stayed in the NICU (neonatal intensive care unit) for around two months. The medical bill? Over $700,000.
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A survey found that 18% of all insured adults in the U.S. had a health insurance claim denied in the past year.
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).
The KFF Survey of Consumer Experiences with Health Insurance found that 18% of insured adults say they experienced denied claims in the past year. This problem was somewhat more common among people with employer-sponsored insurance (21%) and marketplace insurance (20%), less so among people with Medicare (10%) or Medicaid (12%).
 
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