American Economics Thread

[SlothmanAllen]

Even though I don't like Trump, much less Kamala, I don't think he's going to do what you and I are thinking, start taxing everything like crazy...

If your looking to the logic behind it, I don't think you have to look much further than the slogan "Make America Great Again". The slogan relies on a world view of America that is:

• Being overrun by violent immigrant gangs that roam the streets raping and murdering people.
• A country on the verge economic collapse.
• The opposite political party being the most dastardly beard twirling villains who are both simultaneously genius criminal masterminds of nearly unlimited power yet also stupid and weak.
• A country on the verge of moral collapse.
• Compromised by diversity in political, economic and military terms.
• Suffered a decline in Christian religious values (see overturning on Roe v Wade) informing legal doctrine.
• All forms of government are either immoral, evil, mismanaged, corrupt or any combination of them.

and probably a dozen other things I am forgetting. Basically none of the impetus behind Trumps rise is based in reality, but a distorted reality that has been sold to a portion of the public over the last several decades.

 

[pipaster]

Boeing machinists end their seven will strike, agree to a 38% salary increase. The strike was costing Boeing some 100 million dollars a day.

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[siegecrossbow]

At least MSM can report on how bad the economy actually is instead of gaslighting people like they have for the past two years with phrases like vibecession.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

At least MSM can report on how bad the economy actually is instead of gaslighting people like they have for the past two years with phrases like vibecession.

Honestly, I believe that some of these articles are simply written by people who are out of touch with reality, like this one for example:

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[Sinnavuuty]

American Dream!!!

Part 13:
The level of over-optimism was petrified in these last weeks before the election...

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U.S. economy is on the cusp of another Roaring ’20s, says UBS

The Economy Under Trump vs. Biden...

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The Economy Under Trump vs. Biden

A Gallup poll that was released early last month...

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The economy ranks as the most important of 22 issues that U.S. registered voters say will influence their choice for president. It is the only issue on which a majority of voters, 52%, say the candidates’ positions on it are an “extremely important” influence on their vote. Another 38% of voters rate the economy as “very important,” which means the issue could be a significant factor to nine in 10 voters.

Voters view Donald Trump as better able than Kamala Harris to handle the economy, 54% versus 45%. Trump also has an edge on perceptions of his handling of immigration (+9 percentage points) and foreign affairs (+5), while Harris is seen as better on climate change (+26), abortion (+16) and healthcare (+10 ). The candidates are evenly matched on voters’ impressions of who would better address gun policy.

U.S. voters have become deeply frustrated with the cost of living …

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“It’s inflation, stupid!” wrote Bernard Yaros, U.S. lead economist at Oxford Economics, in an October 24 report, borrowing from political strategist James Carville’s famous coinage. “Inflation is the foremost issue voters are concerned about, and how it is perceived will determine the election.”

Demand for food banks is off the charts in many of the key swing states that Harris desperately needed to win. In Pennsylvania, we’re told demand “is actually as high as it was at the height of the pandemic”…

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Joe Arthur, who runs the Central Pennsylvania Food Bank, told NBC News the current problem is “a hunger crisis.”

“The need that we’re seeing in our localities is actually as high as it was at the peak of the pandemic, yet there are less resources for those families today.”

At one food bank in Michigan, demand is actually “significantly higher” than it was during the pandemic…

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are-growing-longer-rcna175377

One truck can carry enough food for up to 600 households, but some days even that isn't enough to meet the demand, which has gone up by 18% over the past 12 months, said Ken Estelle, president of Feeding America West Michigan.

“We have never seen this level of need in the 43 years we have been serving this community. It is significantly higher than during Covid and has pressed us beyond our capacity,” said Estelle. “We’ve just seen this drumbeat increase every month of more people and more people.”

And at one food bank in Wisconsin, demand has more than doubled since 2022…

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-rcna175377

In the relatively affluent Milwaukee suburbs of Waukesha County, Wisconsin, Rochelle Gamauf said each week she is seeing new faces at her food pantry, Friends With Food, which she started during the pandemic.

The organization has gone from giving out around 420,000 pounds of food in 2022 to over a million pounds in 2023. On a recent week in September, nearly 400 families came through the door, 48 of whom were coming for the first time — a 50% increase in new families compared to last year, she said.

This may be one of the biggest reasons Donald Trump is winning the election in all three states. Many of the people who go to these food banks actually have jobs. But they aren’t earning enough to keep up with the rapidly rising cost of living. For months, the government has been releasing numbers that initially look great, but are later revised down dramatically. Last month, they were told that job openings were rising, but now they've discovered that they're actually falling...

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Last month, when Kamala Harris still had some chance of winning the election, we were not surprised to learn that according to the extremely political Bureau of Labor Statistics, in August the number of job openings unexpectedly soared from an upward revised 7.7 million to 8.040 million, which was not only a 3-sigma beat to expectations, but was also above the highest Wall Street forecast. Fast forward to today, when Kamala’s chance of winning are effectively zero – as even the suddenly apolitical Jeff Bezos now admits – and shockingly moments ago the BLS reported that in September, the number of job openings plunged from over 8 million to just 7.4 million, the lowest since early 2021…

In March 2021, 49% of small business owners in the United States were unable to pay their rent, but that was because many states instituted lockdowns that were severely hurting the economy. In September 2024, 48% of small business owners in the United States were unable to pay their rent, but there are no excuses this time...

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Close to half of small business owners couldn’t pay their rent in September, marking a new three-year high.

According to business networking platform Alignable’s September Revenue & Rent Report, 48% of small business renters could not make their rent payments. That was up from 41% in July and August. And it was the highest it has been since the Covid recovery era in March 2021, when 49% of small business owners were delinquent.

Fox Business interviewed a restaurant owner in California who tried everything she could to keep her restaurants afloat...

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A regenerative farmer and restaurateur who closed several of her California eateries is now facing the possibility of shutting down her remaining two locations.

Mollie Engelhart, owner of Sage Regenerative Kitchen, said despite her continuous attempts to keep her restaurants afloat, they are “barely hanging on by a thread.”

“It doesn’t feel like we can hold on because I’ve run out of assets to literally liquidate, to keep us above ground and above water,” Engelhart told FOX Business. Engelhart said she and her husband “leveraged everything” including their retirement and home, in hopes that things would turn around.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

American Dream!!!

Part 14:

Many larger companies are also experiencing profound difficulties. TGI Fridays filed for bankruptcy...

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Casual dining chain TGI Fridays Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Texas on Saturday with the company's executive chairman saying it still has not fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The bar and grill chain, known for serving up hamburgers, loaded potato skins and $5 happy hour drinks, said the move was made to “address legacy liabilities and position restaurants for long-term success,” the company said in a press release.

The Dallas-based company says 39 of its corporate-operated domestic restaurants would remain open.

Meanwhile, the percentage of middle-income families who evaluate their financial situations negatively has reached a new high…

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America’s middle class is feeling the squeeze like never before, according to new data.

Primerica’s latest Financial Security Monitor report for the third quarter found 55% of middle-income households now rate their personal financial situation negatively, a 6-point jump from the previous survey.

“For the first time in a year, a majority of middle-income households are feeling negative about their personal finances,” said Glenn Williams, CEO of Primerica. “In fact, this latest report represents the highest negative rating we’ve seen since we began fielding the survey exactly four years ago.”

Hundreds of people have signed up to rent a “sleeping pod” in San Francisco for $700 a month…

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housing-crisis

A company that rents “sleeping pods” in downtown San Francisco for $700 a month has had 300 people apply for its remaining 17 beds, the company's CEO said.

Brownstone Shared Housing describes its mission as “providing low-cost housing in the most expensive cities”. Its bunkbed-style “pods” measure approximately 3.5ft-by-4ft-by-6.5ft, large enough to fit a twin mattress. The pods come with privacy curtains, inside lighting and charging ports.

The job market is actually much weaker than we were initially told…

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1852359114174648325

Biden/Harris lied about jobs numbers.

They said in August there were 159k added, there were only 78k.

In September they said 254k, but only got 223k.

In October they expected 100k, but only got 12k.

Will they later revise October's number even lower?

It takes 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth. And that's not even takes into account the millions and millions of people who are entering in the country illegally.

It is being reported that Nissan “is planning to cut production of its key US models by 30%”…

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-global-sales-target-risk

In continuing signs that the U.S. consumer is tapped, Nissan is planning on cutting production of its main U.S. models by 30%, according to a new report from Nikkei, which says the cuts could jeopardize the automaker's 2024 global sales targets.

Nissan forecasts a 99% drop in quarterly operating profit to 995 million yen ($6.52 million) and a 12% decline to 500 billion yen for the year, citing weakening U.S. market earnings, the report says.

The company’s target of 3.65 million vehicle sales for 2024 is now at risk, it says.

So far in 2024, US banks have closed more than 700 branches…

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US banks closed more than 700 branches in the first nine months of the year, forcing thousands to travel further to access vital services.

Bank of America closed the most locations of any bank, shuttering 132 between January and September.

U.S. Bank followed swiftly behind, having closed 101 of their own branches.

Warren Buffett Continues to Sell Stocks and Now Has a $325 Billion Cash Hoard …

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Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate headed by Warren E. Buffett, extended its retreat from stocks in the third quarter, cutting its holdings in Apple and Bank of America and increasing its cash to a record $325.2 billion.

The Social Security Administration has finally released its final wage statistics for 2023, and they are quite sobering. According to the report, last year the “median wage” was just $43,222.81. In other words, half of all American workers earned less than $43,222.81 and half of all American workers earned more than $43,222.81.

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The "raw" average wage, computed as net compensation divided by the number of wage earners, is $11,103,241,227,338.01 divided by 173,670,935, or $63,932.64. Based on data in the table below, about 67.6 percent of earned wagers had net compensation less than or equal to the $63,932.64 raw average wage. By definition, 50 percent of wage earners had net compensation less than or equal to the median wage, which is estimated to be $43,222.81 by 2023.

A recently released study found that it now takes more than $100,000 a year for the typical U.S. household to live “the American dream” in all 50 states, and in 29 U.S. states it takes more than $150,000 a year...

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A household would have to spend more than $150,000 a year to live the dream in 29 of the 50 states, according to an analysis published in April by the personal finance site GOBankingRates.

According to the report, the optimal American lifestyle would cost $137,842 a year in Ohio, $147,535 in Texas, $159,932 in Florida, $194,067 in New York and $245,723 in California.

It goes without saying that someone earning $43,222.81 a year will not be able to live the American dream anywhere in the country. Even if there are two people earning $43,222.81 a year in the same household, that still won’t get you anywhere near living the American dream. Not long ago, a Wall Street Journal/NORC poll found that only about a third of the entire U.S. population truly believes the American Dream is “still alive” …

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Only about a third of U.S. adults believe the American dream is still alive, a Wall Street Journal/NORC poll published Wednesday found.

A survey of 2,501 people conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute twelve years ago found more than half of respondents believed the American dream “still holds true,” but now only a third feel that way, according to a recent WSJ/NORC poll of 1,502 adults. The study also found an increasingly large gap between people’s economic goals and what they think is actually attainable — a trend that was consistent across gender and party lines, but was especially common among younger generations.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

American Dream!!!

Part 15:

One of the biggest reasons why the American dream is out of reach for the majority of the population is because real estate prices have completely skyrocketed in the last four years...

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/economy/housing-affordability-presidential-election/index.html

Twenty-four percent of likely voters who rent their homes said that “the cost of housing” is the most important economic issue they're considering as they decide their vote, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS between September 19 and 22. That's no surprise: The US is facing a once-in-a-generation housing affordability crisis. In the four years through August 2024, national home prices have risen 45%, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to the National Association of Realtors, the median sales price of a home in the US hit a record high this summer and now hovers just below that level.

Renting used to be an affordable option for many people, but today nearly half of all renters in the country “spend more than 30% of their income on housing"…

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/ economy/housing-affordability-presidential-election/index.html

Nor has renting become any easier than buying. Nearly half of US renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing, qualifying them as “cost-burdened,” according to US Census data from September.

As of September 2024, the average rent in the U.S. is $2,050 per month. How are you going to afford that if you only make $43,222.81 per year? If you don’t make more than $100,000 per year, you’re definitely among the “underprivileged.” Economic conditions are worsening rapidly, and we’re seeing high-profile bankruptcies happening at a rate we haven’t seen since the global financial crisis. For example, one of the largest crafts chains in the U.S. just filed for bankruptcy...

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Joann — the craft store chain formerly known as Jo-Ann Fabrics — has filed for bankruptcy amid ongoing financial troubles.

But DIYers need not worry just yet: The company’s more than 800 stores nationwide will remain open and its website will stay active as the Hudson, Ohio-based company restructures its finances.

As hordes of businesses fail across the country, the historic crisis in the commercial real estate market continues to intensify.

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The delinquency rate of office mortgages backing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 9.4% in October, up a full percentage point from September, and the highest since the worst month of the meltdown that followed the Financial Crisis. The delinquency rate has doubled since June 2023 (4.5%), according to data by Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.

I believe I am close to retiring from this comments section, now that the Devil has returned to the White House, the media will report the reality of the American economy.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Part 13:
The level of over-optimism was petrified in these last weeks before the election...

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

U.S. economy is on the cusp of another Roaring ’20s, says UBS

The Economy Under Trump vs. Biden...

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The Economy Under Trump vs. Biden

A Gallup poll that was released early last month...

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

U.S. voters have become deeply frustrated with the cost of living …

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Demand for food banks is off the charts in many of the key swing states that Harris desperately needed to win. In Pennsylvania, we’re told demand “is actually as high as it was at the height of the pandemic”…

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

At one food bank in Michigan, demand is actually “significantly higher” than it was during the pandemic…

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

are-growing-longer-rcna175377

And at one food bank in Wisconsin, demand has more than doubled since 2022…

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-rcna175377

This may be one of the biggest reasons Donald Trump is winning the election in all three states. Many of the people who go to these food banks actually have jobs. But they aren’t earning enough to keep up with the rapidly rising cost of living. For months, the government has been releasing numbers that initially look great, but are later revised down dramatically. Last month, they were told that job openings were rising, but now they've discovered that they're actually falling...

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In March 2021, 49% of small business owners in the United States were unable to pay their rent, but that was because many states instituted lockdowns that were severely hurting the economy. In September 2024, 48% of small business owners in the United States were unable to pay their rent, but there are no excuses this time...

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Fox Business interviewed a restaurant owner in California who tried everything she could to keep her restaurants afloat...

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All lies to perpetuate the myth of vibecession… Oh wait Trump got elected? It is ALL HIS FAULT despite him not being president till next January.

 

[tokenanalyst]

The man is not even in the White House and is already pumping stock bubbles.

 

[hullopilllw]

All lies to perpetuate the myth of vibecession… Oh wait Trump got elected? It is ALL HIS FAULT despite him not being president till next January.

Same bank update SP500 to hit 6,600 year end 2025. And lots of clients rushed today into selling shorts on US equities as Trump trades.