American Economics Thread

chgough34

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For the bold part, that's not what that says. It says compared to migrants to other countries. That's not Chinese people who stay in China.
The introduction references “stayers” on its second point (
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). Given the scope of the study (IMO winners, it would have to have Chinese testers)
In general, this is correct. That's why India's unable to challenge China and the US, which supposedly has "unlimited" ability to draw global talent, is getting run down by China in the tech war. It's definitely not just population but the whole equation that makes China innovate faster than anyone else.
Don’t count chickens before they hatch and mistake the exception for the rule. There are many leading indicators existent in China but China doesn’t have the multiplicity of substantial large global firms in every NAICS sector on the productivity frontier.

You end up just quoting highly partisan talking points about the U.S. & China while divorcing it from the context in which they are made and treat it as the holy gospel.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Ooooh look who grew a bud of a spine today! Or did you fart while hiding from me under your covers forcing you to poke your head out? Either way, you've got a lot of catching up to do; I have lots of points you've all failed to answer from previous posts. Chop chop!
Or for example, China has been leading the frontier of chemistry research for a decade+ but still doesn’t have a top 5 photoresist manufacturer
Remnants of an old world of globalization. This is just mid-cycle of the repeating events that see China indigenizing all tech that was banned to it.
The introduction references “stayers” on its second point (
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). Given the scope of the study (IMO winners, it would have to have Chinese testers)
M'kay so I searched for the word, "China" in the whole article. It was mentioned once in the footnotes in a completely irrelevant context, and nevermore. So the article takes data from "stayers" of all the countries out there who have participants in the Math Olympiads. In other words, it includes all countries like Egyt, Afghanistan, Austalia, broke European ones, etc... If China is even included in the data, it is, at best, averaged in the ocean of nopeless nations.
Don’t count chickens before they hatch
Don't count your old chickens before they're done dropping dead.
and mistake the exception for the rule.
The rule is that China innovates faster. The exception... I don't know of any. If you can think of some, be sure to relay it to your government so they can repeat the pattern of trying to ban it to China so we can patch it up and run you over again post haste.
There are many leading indicators existent in China but China doesn’t have the multiplicity of substantial large global firms in every NAICS sector on the productivity frontier.
The fact that Chinese high tech products are spreading throughout the world and taking away the Chinese market from foreign competitors shows that our firms are more than enough for the US in the tech war, which only served to jolt them into action and further development.
You end up just quoting highly partisan talking points about the U.S. & China while divorcing it from the context in which they are made and treat it as the holy gospel.
You're the one quoting mainly anyone who says what you wanna hear from Twitter LOL. The context is that China is moving faster than the US on every leading technology and is already ahead in several critical areas, likely expanding to a commanding domination in the near future. There is no holy gospel; there is only science, and the fastest-moving science with the brightest future is Chinese science.
 
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Sinnavuuty

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Interest payments on the national debt top $1 trillion as deficit swells​

The US government has already spent over $1 trillion on interest payments on the national debt, which currently stands at $35.3 trillion. This was reported by the Treasury Department. Interest payments are 30% higher than they were last year. The US budget deficit widened sharply in August and will approach the $2 trillion mark by the end of the year.
 

siegecrossbow

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Interest payments on the national debt top $1 trillion as deficit swells​

The US government has already spent over $1 trillion on interest payments on the national debt, which currently stands at $35.3 trillion. This was reported by the Treasury Department. Interest payments are 30% higher than they were last year. The US budget deficit widened sharply in August and will approach the $2 trillion mark by the end of the year.
Jerome “Inflation is Transitory” Powell: we did it guys! Our interest payment on national debt is now higher than the military budget!
 

chgough34

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beats on both industrial production and retail sales, causing the Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow to go to 3%

Since inflation has absolutely collapsed (so much so that the Fed is likely to do a 50bps cut at tomorrow’s meeting), this all clearly points to a new permanent high in U.S. productivity growth, such that the ancien regime of 2% trend growth is gone and 3% trend growth (driven entirely by total factor productivity) is back.
 

Heresy

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beats on both industrial production and retail sales, causing the Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow to go to 3%

Since inflation has absolutely collapsed (so much so that the Fed is likely to do a 50bps cut at tomorrow’s meeting), this all clearly points to a new permanent high in U.S. productivity growth, such that the ancien regime of 2% trend growth is gone and 3% trend growth (driven entirely by total factor productivity) is back.
Please stop posting propaganda. Will you retract your statement if the Fed only drops the rate 25 bps? Will you retract your statement if U.S. is not 3% this year or the next year or the year after that?
 

chgough34

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Please stop posting propaganda. Will you retract your statement if the Fed only drops the rate 25 bps?
I literally said it was “likely”
Will you retract your statement if U.S. is not 3% this year or the next year or the year after that?
U.S. growth will be 2.3% this year even if the economy does not grow in the 3rd or 4th quarter compared to the 2nd quarter so there’s nothing to retract
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Since inflation has absolutely collapsed (so much so that the Fed is likely to do a 50bps cut at tomorrow’s meeting), this all clearly points to a new permanent high in U.S. productivity growth,
"Permanent" is an imaginatively wishful word to use when reading a flowing chart, especially from one new data point.
such that the ancien regime of 2% trend growth is gone and 3% trend growth (driven entirely by total factor productivity) is back.
Funny child, this is a long term GDP growth curve of the USA. There is nothing ancient about 2%, nothing breakthrough or sustained about touching 3%. Nothing worth mentioning at all in the current numbers.
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chgough34

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The new sources of U.S. productivity growth are numerous - the tight labor market has caused workers to transition away from low productivity sectors to high productivity sectors and the worker retraining programs just now paying out productivity benefits (and will continue to do so for a long time to come), the physical capital bonzanza from the chips/ira/iija, the ending of pandemic-era bottlenecks, and AI diffusing throughout the economy (just like electricity and the internet two lifetimes ago and a generation ago, respectively).

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