American Economics Thread

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
Indeed. The U.S. is generally on the technological frontier, not always. And plus, economic growth is not a zero-sum game. Trade & investment are mutually beneficial and win-win. Saying an economy is not real because it attracts FDI is ridiculous. What’s more - remaining open to FDI helps keep the U.S. on the technological frontier through multiple channels - capital deepening, competition, scale effects, driving inefficient firms out of the market place, and of course, technology transfers. And regardless, national origin discrimination and xenophobia are bad - it doesn’t matter where a technology comes from, so long as said technology is being used to fund tax revenues for the U.S. treasury and contribute to TFP growth in the United States

The U.S. is a far more competitive and desirable location to do the FDI than China

Sorry that's just wrong.
FDI, or onshoring manufacturing != TFP growth 100% of the time.
Very context specific.

Onshoring manufacturing into a high wage country with imported capital equipment via extensive financial incentives is achieving the opposite of what you're saying will happen.

The FDI is a bet on government regulations as well, or a psuedo-tribute, not the efficiency-focused market forces you're touting about.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
Indeed. The U.S. is generally on the technological frontier, not always. And plus, economic growth is not a zero-sum game. Trade & investment are mutually beneficial and win-win. Saying an economy is not real because it attracts FDI is ridiculous. What’s more - remaining open to FDI helps keep the U.S. on the technological frontier through multiple channels - capital deepening, competition, scale effects, driving inefficient firms out of the market place, and of course, technology transfers. And regardless, national origin discrimination and xenophobia are bad - it doesn’t matter where a technology comes from, so long as said technology is being used to fund tax revenues for the U.S. treasury and contribute to TFP growth in the United States

The U.S. is a far more competitive and desirable location to do the FDI than China
That's a lot of cope in the word "generally". Because there's a lot of high tech products that are made outside of the US, and increasingly so.

Additionally, That was not your argument so please don't change the goalpost. Your argument was the following :

I’m explaining a scenario in which it is unnecessary for American workers to do 12hr days and still be competitive vis-a-bis tsmc

Which have not been proven to be correct. The TSMC fab is using a lot of Taiwan engineers, has been reported and these fabs need to be running 24hrs. Saying American workers can do in less time what Taiwan engineers can do has no merit and especially wrong in light of the advances of TSMC compared to US home grown foundaries. So in reality US workers are not more productive or efficient than Taiwan's engineers at TSMC.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
US govt is bending over backwards to court TSMC expertise

Lets be real it's more like a threat of "if you don't move your leading edge fabs here we might be a little more clear about our intention to not support you in a Strait conflict".

The point is that the US will have a leading edge fab to make leading edge chips - whether they are manned by Martians or Babboons - is rather irrelevant from a financial/GDP perspective in the short term.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The basic logic is.
  • US economy more productive, therefore means US workforce is more educated, efficient, productive.
  • US workforce able to absorb learnings from TSMC more efficiently because US workforce is so productive.
  • Since US workforce is already productive + learnings from TSMC, US TSMC fabs destined to be more productive than Taiwanese Fabs
  • A>B, therefore A+C > B+C. A being America of course.
There's a certain simplicity to the logic here.
But there's some potential pitfalls in this logic chain.

Starting with comparative advantage....
The original sin, however, is not breaking down what makes up the concept of productivity and instead reducing this 'value' into single number.
The problem is that Washington US TSMC fab (WaferTech) has been owned and operated by TSMC for 24 years in Camas, Washington state. The unit costs is +50% higher in US than in Taiwan, despite fully Americanized workers with TSMC supervisors.

Morris Chang attributes this lack of productivity to work culture differences between Taiwan and US. TSMC as a regimented strong corporate culture.

“We still have about a thousand workers in that factory [Washington TSMC], and that factory, they cost us about 50% more than Taiwan costs,” Chang said.

“Initially it was chaos. It was just a series of ugly surprises because, when we first went in, we really expected the costs to be comparable to Taiwan. And that was extremely naive,” said Chang, who retired in 2018.

Chip industry research Dan Hutcheson said Chang’s comments reflect TSMC’s experience in Taiwan, where Hutcheson said the company thrived by building a remarkable strong corporate culture. .....
At WaferTech, though, Hutcheson said workers never developed that degree of rapport with one another, or with the company’s leadership in Taiwan..... Hutcheson said that resulted in a string of production setbacks that undermined the factory’s success.
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Yep, so much for the vaunted US superior productivity. Defect rates (yields) is not the same as productivity, as Washington TSMC in Camas, WA is any proof, costs are 50% higher per unit.
 

pbd456

Junior Member
Registered Member
That was the era of DUV, now we are in era of EUV, which is why US govt is bending over backwards to court TSMC expertise. Intel has the same Low NA EUV as TSMC and Samsung, but still cannot master the basic version of EUV to compete effectively. In otherwords, Intel excellent productivity at DUV does not translate to mastery or productivity with EUV without significant foreign expertise contribution.
Interl has high na euv.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
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As it turns out, the U.S. is actually a very capable manufacturer and able to deliver projects on time and within budget but media reporting focuses on all kinds of irrelevant operational friction present in all firms and the handful of projects that don’t become successful, and in this specific case, tsmc playing the government for money.
As it turns out, nothing turned out. The factory isn't running or producing anything yet. Also, you have confused yield rate, which is dependent on the normal transfer of technology, with production capacity. You can make 1 batch per day with 90% yield, but they can make 3 batches a day with 90% yield; it is not the same production capacity or efficient use of the facility.
US workers have the highest number of working hours out of almost anywhere in the OECD, including famed manufacturer, Germany
So I guess you can stay on top of the the OECD midgets. That was assumed from the very start.
Productivity is output per hour and in typical American fashion, technological advancements and innovation mean that the U.S. can produce substantially more per unit labor hour than anyone else.
That's something you need to prove, not an underlying assumption. You starting an argument with this is like an average Joe asking why he can't get a date despite being the richest and most hung person in the world LOL Judging by everything we see in construction and science, the US moves like a smudge of molasses in a cold Chinese stream.
Improvements at the intensive margin of work hours are fools gold (with all kinds of other deleterious effects elsewhere); extensive margin improvements are far more desirable
That's why China's rise bringing people out of poverty and into the cities has led to unrivaled results in development.
Having an attractive business investment for FDI is a strength since FDI is wonderful - it provides competition, scale effects, jobs, and technology and knowledge transfers from other countries
Yes, but correctly using FDI to catalyze domestic innovation, innovation that happens at the pace of a giant rather than of small critters, is the most important. Something we see in China and absent in the US.
TSMC is manufacturing in Arizona and paying taxes to the State of Arizona and the U.S. Treasury with workers resident in the United States. It absolutely is America’s productivity
More like taking subsidies. With 50% cost overrun compared to chips manufactured in Taiwan, what is their purpose? How do they generate sales except through government aid?
Well now it’s built in the U.S. Problem solved.
Not at all. By that logic, having foreign car companies build in China should have solved China's auto problem, but actually, it didn't until China innovated our own world-beating EV cars. Having others build tech or even transfer tech to you is only a solution to the near-sighted; to those with future plans, is but a tool that may allow you to find the true solution. China used this tool properly to spur domestic innovation, which is the only lasting solution. America can take TSMC's technology, actually, China has it as well since Dr. Liang came to SMIC, but it cannot use it as a tool to move forward, rather relying on TSMC to keep feeding it. Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach him to fish and feed him a lifetime. America and China are large animals engaged in a fight. America depends on rodents and sparrows like Taiwan to keep feeding it; it will become comparably malnourished while China learned to hunt and brings in large prey to dine on (uses its own power, a superpower's strength to innovate) and thus grows ever larger.
I’m explaining a scenario in which it is unnecessary for American workers to do 12hr days and still be competitive vis-a-bis tsmc
That's how the chips made in Arizona are 50% more expensive than their overseas counterparts? LOL That's "competitive?"
Indeed. The U.S. is generally on the technological frontier, not always. And plus, economic growth is not a zero-sum game. Trade & investment are mutually beneficial and win-win. Saying an economy is not real because it attracts FDI is ridiculous. What’s more - remaining open to FDI helps keep the U.S. on the technological frontier through multiple channels - capital deepening, competition, scale effects, driving inefficient firms out of the market place, and of course, technology transfers. And regardless, national origin discrimination and xenophobia are bad - it doesn’t matter where a technology comes from, so long as said technology is being used to fund tax revenues for the U.S. treasury and contribute to TFP growth in the United States

The U.S. is a far more competitive and desirable location to do the FDI than China
All depends on your relationship with FDI. China is its master, using it to jumpstart the muscles of a giant, then oftentimes running those foreign firms out once they are no longer useful. America is its slave, addicted to it and in need of it, constant updates of it, powered by the innovative abilities of mice, to sustain America's edge. Something that is only good enough to be China's means has become America's end. The American strategy would work in a world where there was not a Chinese collossus in competition with innate abilities that dwarf the trickle-feeds that America can get, but the sun has set on that world.
 
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abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
That's how the chips made in Arizona are 50% more expensive than their overseas counterparts? LOL That's "competitive?"

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He's just Matt Klein in disguise. (I joke)

But the math doesn't work out very well unless American customers are willing to pay more for their chips made in Arizona vs elsewhere. What this fab does solve is supply chain redundancy in case of a TW Strait hot war.

This is a small first step in one of hundreds to bring back somewhat leading node fabs to the US at an exorbitant cost. Nothing more, nothing less.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sorry that's just wrong.
FDI, or onshoring manufacturing != TFP growth 100% of the time.
Very context specific.
No. TFP is the residual of GDP compared to labor and capital units within a country. Foreign corporate production in the United States, obviously contributes to U.S. GDP since they are producing in the United States

The FDI is a bet on government regulations as well, or a psuedo-tribute, not the efficiency-focused market forces you're touting about.
Corporates exist solely to maximize shareholder revenue. No one policy is determinative for FDI attractiveness. It is simply that no one is able to beat the combined mix of US financial efficiency, workforce training, higher education, infrastructure, the regulatory environment, agglomeration effects, inertia, and existing capital stock and that makes the U.S. simply the largest FDI recipient in the world, bar none.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Corporates exist solely to maximize shareholder revenue.
In times of amicability. In times of conflict, the corporations that matter exist to boost national power; America has brought that time to China, but it has not grasped it itself.
No one policy is determinative for FDI attractiveness. It is simply that no one is able to beat the combined mix of US financial efficiency, workforce training, higher education, infrastructure, the regulatory environment, agglomeration effects, inertia, and existing capital stock and that makes the U.S. simply the largest FDI recipient in the world, bar none.
Actually, China is a far superior environment for growth than the US with 2 things that tilt the advantage for America 1. unchecked capitalism, the potential to use money to take over the scene and enslave the local population and government and 2. political manipulation, the tools that the US had developed after WWII to coerce friendly and/or weak countries and corporations into falling in line. Oh, and 1 last factor; America tends to keep itself dependent on foreign input while China is the number one country in eating other people's lunches after they spill the beans, even inadverdently.
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
No. TFP is the residual of GDP compared to labor and capital units within a country. Foreign corporate production in the United States, obviously contributes to U.S. GDP since they are producing in the United States


Corporates exist solely to maximize shareholder revenue. No one policy is determinative for FDI attractiveness. It is simply that no one is able to beat the combined mix of US financial efficiency, workforce training, higher education, infrastructure, the regulatory environment, agglomeration effects, inertia, and existing capital stock and that makes the U.S. simply the largest FDI recipient in the world, bar none.

You're wrong here. If you're stuck with low profitability factories as a result of FDI investment that wasn't put down based on market forces.... Unprofitable investment that incurs an ongoing cost, so that means it's an opportunity cost as well.

Literally just resource misallocation. You can argue there's a strategic imperative to invest inefficiently for national security, but that isn't productivity. You can even claim that the US is so productive that investing inefficiently in a range of industries still leaves the US ahead, sure, but that isn't productivity either.
 
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