American Economics Thread

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 3:

A "historic wave" of corporate bankruptcies during the first half of this year that was worse than anything we've witnessed since the first half of 2010:
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There is a “historic surge” of corporate bankruptcies underway in the U.S., as debt-saddled companies struggle to adjust to the new era of high interest rates.

New figures published by S&P Global Intelligence show that 75 companies filed for bankruptcy in June, the highest number recorded in a single month since early 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. That pushed this year’s total number of bankruptcies so far to 346, which is notably higher than comparable levels seen in the past 13 years.

Before this, the highest half-year figure recorded was in 2010, with 437 companies filing for bankruptcy from January through June.
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Big Lots is on the verge of bankruptcy:
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Discount retail chain Big Lots said it will close up to 40 stores this year and may declare bankruptcy.

The Columbus, Ohio-based company wrote in a quarterly Securities and Exchange Commission filing it expected further operating losses and has “substantial doubt” it can continue as a functioning business.

Big Lots last month reported a net loss of $205 million in the quarter ending May 4, 2024.
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Today, most Americans have very little discretionary income. In fact, research shows that the vast majority of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck right now:
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A 2023 survey conducted by Payroll.org highlighted that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, a 6% increase from the previous year. In other words, more than three-quarters of Americans struggle to save or invest after paying for their monthly expenses.

Similarly, a 2023 Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerning—reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%).
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Nearly half of all Gen Z adults “depend on financial help from their parents and family”:
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A new survey by Bank of America finds that nearly half of adult members of Gen Z are relying on financial help from their parents and family members to get by.

The survey for Bank of America’s Better Money Habits team found that 46% of Gen Z are receiving financial assistance from their parents or other family members, a figure that declines to 30% for Gen Z non-students.
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In Jackson Hole, Wyoming, millionaires are complaining that the city is being ruined by all the billionaires who are now moving there:
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Millionaires once accused of ruining a gorgeous town in Wyoming now complain they are being driven out of the area by billionaires.

Jackson Hole has long been a popular vacation spot for celebrities including Ryan Gosling, Eva Mendes and Matthew McConaughey.

An influx of wealthy people sent house prices sky-rocketing and forced ordinary workers to live on the other side of the mountain on the Idaho-Wyoming border.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
You literally stated that Congress should be operating a research laboratory. Quite reasonable conclusion that you didn’t know the specifics of administrative law.
Oh did I? Where did I "literally" state it? Can you quote? Do you know what "literally" means?
Agency deference was literally not a thing for discussions on COVID lockdowns/mask mandates because there was exactly 0 statues that could at all be plausibly interpreted as authorizing the CDC to order a lockdown or a mask mandate (but not without a lack of trying - the CDC even interpreted the Public Health Service Act as giving it authority to ban evictions). The CDC didn’t put a single Federal Register entry that trial-ballooned the more restrictive COVID measures. At best, the CDC could’ve submitted legislative ideas to Congress (that would’ve gone nowhere).
So basically, your government gives no power to the leading authority on how something should be handled and when they made their recommendation, the recommendations were rejected. That's why I say your government's retarded.
All policies either implicitly or explicitly assume a certain level of heightened mortality in exchange for safety - any public health, environmental, or safety regulation necessarily assumes this. Pure safety-ism can fly with hyperliberal risk-averse regulators, it’s not going to fly with a conservative to left-of-center risk-loving electorate .
"Stay inside/wear a mask cus there's a deadly virus going on outside? Nah, I'm risk-loving. Besides, Faucci's an idiot. Trump says it can be cured with chloroquine and UV/bleach injected inside the body."

And you tried to make that look like rational thought LOL
I was explaining why even assuming “le president is senile” is true
"Even" LOL Who has doubt?
- why that operative effect is small.
Except the others working under him are stupid and he's actually making the US a laughing stock with what was at first "senior moments" but then became his default setting.
Their hate boner for China is because they are hawks. That’s it - and none of those 3 people are civil service employees so it’s broadly irrelevant.
Ohhhh, more irrelevent people because they're idiots. Wonder how long this conversation should drag until you've call all the American government officials irrelevent.
Think you mean 1) TikTok hearing and 2) even if it was a “trial” or a Congressional hearing, it wouldn’t implicate those ~2M people since the judiciary is not the executive and aren’t organized under the Pendleton Act or the Civil Service Reform Act (or for that matter, neither is Congress).
Oh ok ok so in the US government, everybody on TV with a name and a face is an idiot but the silent ~2M working behind the scenes, now those guys do great work, right? LOLOL
Short-run indicator of likely effectiveness.
"Likely" effectiveness? That's not reality, mofo LOL That's some people guessing if other people hit the mark.
Those lag effects take years but need Congress to get the ball rolling (and overcoming inertia and organizing an executive branch agency to be dedicated to a mission is a feat of itself).
So, once again, you would need to look at other projects for which the lag has already passed instead of guess on this one. That's called staying in reality instead of imagining your own success.
You’ve dismissed the laws as meaningless despite them being in force for a week or less. That’s quite the jump of logic. It will take time to see how policy developments play out (and Congress to change the laws accordingly) but passing laws in it of themselves to bundle together a series of technical reforms and organize an executive branch agency is newsworthy on its own terms (and a necessary first step for good policymaking).
I said we'll have to see but for now, they are nothing to brag about and certainly no evidence of competency.

Realistically, do you think the US is going to catch up with China building 27 advanced reactors to America's zero? Oh, that's right! Did you ever come to terms with the 27 number referring to the current build amount and not the total, which is 56 more? Did you come to terms with your inability to read charts?
They may “know to create”, that doesn’t mean they do it well - even with things such as universal birth registration. The oversight and reform that Congress continuously does both specific to agencies and broadly applicable to the executive branch writ large is significant since people do not organize themselves for public service.
That is a HUGE pat on the back for common sense. Which country with the sufficient means to do it, doesn't implement universal birth registration?
Even if they were “foreign imported” which ehh..questionable,
Had this convo; stomped you twice, back for a third helping already?
see Executive Order 11935 (limiting civil service positions to citizens only), that would still be from Congress setting up the 196
Not gonna bother, actually, there are many positions that do not require citizenship, exceptions made when local talent is simply not enough, and citizens proving as loyal as you'd expect non-citizens. Like I said before, I am not a man of useless semantics. If half of the engineers in China were Chinese citizens of German descent and we were heading towards a conflict with Germany, I'd be terribly worried.
1) They simply aren’t living to paycheck-to-paycheck (a phrase with so many definitions, it has no meaning)
You're wrong, proven wrong many times, and what is without meaning is your mental gymnastics
2) it literally just is “risk-loving” and not “irresponsible” since if you operate under the assumption that you will always be employed outside of retirement (an completely reasonable assumption for most US households),
No, you can decide your PC American term, "risk-loving," and the rest of us will decide our down-to-earth term, "irresponsible dumbassery." You color your bubble, not the world.
literally why save except for the occasional capital expenditure?
It boggles the mind, right? Why do the wealthiest people in the world have massively positive bank accounts? It's just too difficult to understand by your logic.
Individuals with large amounts of precautionary savings (as you seem to have) would indeed be financially risk-averse.
OK, that is your American PC term. We call that "Financially responsible."
Congrats,
Thanks, I'm financially responsible, yay!
I guess (?)
Guess how many nuclear reactors China has and is building
Your paycheck to paycheck definition of a household with a maxed out 401K and multiple years of living expenses
Ooops, don't make shit up. The article said to make reasonable contributions to the 401K, not to max it out or to have multiple years of living expenses accessible.
would definitionally render just about every household in China living “paycheck to paycheck” since their incomes are going to be lower than the 401K contribution limit in all but the rarest circumstances and include an incredibly small share of the population that has very high savings rate and high income.
Why would China's pension contribution limit be higher than the income? Make sense. Talk human.
Also, since most households have some savings (even if in illiquid forms such as retirement accounts and home equity) which would break a textualist non-tautological interpretation of “paycheck-to-paycheck”.
No, the liquid savings have to exceed 1 month of living expenses to just touch the edge of paycheck-to-paycheck.
Even if you extend the argument to liquidity - American households have a fair number of on balance sheets at any given moment - treasuries, CDs, transaction accounts, accrued payroll, and accrued interest - as well as liquidity off-balance sheet in (that is, accounts receivables from family, if they so need it). Saving money is not virtuous nor is not saving money per se “irresponsible” in the context of most households (they have their big risks insured away, have near infinitely stable employment, and their worst case is that they couch-surf with relatives).
Nope, this coming back:
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
It’s the 78th percentile of all adult individuals (including individuals who earn very little - retirees, college students, disabled individuals, immigrants with limited English proficiency, and individuals with medical issues). A $90K salary is incredibly common among individuals that work (especially for this archetypical fratbro you hate so much).
A $90K salary at age 30 is actually closer to 83rd percentile from my research and most of it is in cities with huge living expenses like NYC, LA, Miami, which would destroy a pre-tax $90K. If a dude made $90K living in the middle of Arkansas, now that would equate to a worry-free living as you fantasized about.
It means they basically never experience unemployment and when they do - it is for very short periods of time -
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hat's called "infinite job security"? Where in your link does it say that?
Indeed - longest running constitution in force and for the northern states, an unbroken peace since 1776, for the southern states, an unbroken peace since 1865
LOLOL @ you chopping up your own country into peace time zones as if that makes any point
Given that China’s politics revolve around a country 4 times smaller than it
Oh, you know so little about China. Our politics don't revolve around you at all. Our politics are all about self-strengthening. You are projecting your insecurities onto us without knowing us.
that has somehow encircled it thousands of miles away from Hawaii, it’s self-evident it is “working quite well”.
Look at trends, not some cherry-picked timepoint. The CCP came into power in 1949. Compare the power dynamic of China vs the US in 1949 and now to get the CCP's efficiency vs that of the American government. If you wanted to do long term, many Chinese dynasties reigned supreme for hundreds of years. America only got its crown in 1945 and it doesn't look like it will make it to the 100 year mark with China's ascent. Recent events: China grows faster; historical run-through: China has a tradition of supremacy.
China’s bog normal beta-convergence from capital deepening and technological catchup does nothing to negate it (in fact it supports the theory of the case, China has had 4 - now bordering of 5 - decades of the fastest economic growth ever recorded, yet still can’t effectively assert influence in the Asia-Pacific against an extra regional power thousands of miles away).
Well, you know the US howls for allies while China can handle its problems alone. What would the US be in Asia if it could not use Japan or South Korea? What does the US do when China builds our islands and arms them into bases in the SCS? Your ally, the Philippines is begging for help. What do you do? Watch, sail in circles playing, "I touched your 12 mile line" once in a while. And you never try to stop us when we're serious about grabbing some land or building them up. You're all eyes and mouth; Tillerson even said that we shouldn't be allowed access to the islands we built... and then we did and we built them some more. What a funny American thing to say...
Whether to lock down or not is a political question. The likely outcomes of a lockdown or masks or any policy intervention are scientific questions. The likely economic outcomes are another policy consideration that can be modeled to some degree of accuracy. Since those 2 different desirable policy outcomes - economic development and public health - exist in direct conflict, how to balance them is an inherently political question - as is say, the proper amount of environmental regulations, or automotive safety, etc.
No, it was always only a scientific question. It was never a choice between preserving the economy vs saving people's lives; it was a choice of whether to lose lives and enter a prolonged deeper recession like what ultimately happened in America vs saving lives and entering a shorter, less pronounced dip like what happened in China.
Yeah there were two thoughts - Congress does the law passing and here are a series of headlines of technological innovation.
That's moving the goalpost now. Congress does the law-passing? LOL Who would argue against that? No, you said Congress is effective.
China does it literally the same way, since the NPC gets the final say on policy and to what gets veto’ed (not the executive branch).
Aaahhhhh waiting for you here. We do the same thing but we do it right. Unlike America, we know when to defer to the authorities and when to use administrative power to back them instead of asserting ourselves over them. If the West hadn't screwed up, COVID would have been eradicated after wave 1.
Do you not follow US politics at all? “There are so many immigrants, they can’t assimilate” is a fairly common sentiment.
Not really. When it gets really funny like the Biden debate, I have a laugh but like I said, we Chinese focus on ourselves. You Americans focus on us and assume we focus on you too but we don't. Also, you were arguing with what you saw on TV and not with anyone here?
Yes. Government spending is on individuals in the country (excluding a minuscule share for international affairs) - and thus definition ally, the most typical case is that any resident will have more spent on them than they pay in taxes.
So basically your assertion that a fiscal surplus would be generated by citizens with a net financial positive is false. A citizen with a net financial surplus can sustain himself and add something to society, no matter how small. A government that overspends on failed public projects or a massive military, will still inflict a financial deficit despite these citizens carrying more than thier weight for their own needs.
Didn’t feel it was necessary to reply (and you get into quite nettlesome issues I would’ve preferred to avoid).
Yeah, you prefer to avoid them because they kill your argument LOL
The answer would be no,
Bzzzzzt, wrong.
China’s growth is a mostly endogenous process from capital formation (plus the timing doesn’t match); China’s super-fast growth spurt (1978-2010s-ish) came before when Chinese immigration largely happened (the late 2000s/early 2010s), and it’s also mildly incongruent since the foreign-born Chinese specific share of any U.S labor market segment is small (at most ~2%), even assuming the necessarily odious implicit assumptions here are true.
You are confusing fast and dirty economic growth with technological advancement.
Silicon Valley is also concerned with avoiding the development of foreign competition (both in the U.S. and global ex-China ) markets since worldwide sales matter. Technology is no good if it can’t be sold on a large scale
But they are near-sighted and heavily focus on what they need now rather than the big picture down the line.
You’ve claimed literally the opposite (plus it’s a fairly common sentiment on this site).
If I said that, I said it in a comparative setting to China instead of an absolute stand-alone context. It's like saying someone has no money but he's actually just poor; he still has a couple bucks in his pocket.
It’s not because there’s obvious benefit in consumption today.
If that poor excuse stood, there would be no such thing as wasting money, no such thing as people who are good with money or bad with money.
You can literally just measure the price per pound.
1) You literally said that Americans are picking berries for their anti-anxiety component. If that's a good thing for the quality of life, then an increase in the consumption of expensive anti-anxiety drugs is also a good thing that indicate increase in quality of life.
2) The source you cited actually complained that it was social pressure forcing parents to buy more expensive fruits like these berries or they would be considered poor parents.
 
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zbb

Junior Member
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once again climbed in June, with 2.96 million vehicles just sitting on lots. That works out to about a 76-day supply, and it’s up from 2.89 million vehicles a month earlier. It’s also a million more vehicles than where it
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Supply also seems to vary greatly depending on the price of the vehicle.
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says vehicles that cost between $20,000 and $30,000 have a 61-day supply. At the same time, vehicles that cost between $60,000 and $80,000 can sit on a lot for about 97 days.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
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Economics coverage is nearly uniformly negative and has become so because that’s what gets clicks - see
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Unit US auto sales are up from the inflationary period in 2021-2022 (
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) yet dealers have loads of inventory. This points to substantial increases in automotive manufacturing productivity both in the U.S. and globally (which in the U.S. is indeed at record highs,
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) and it points to sustained downward pressure on prices and disinflationary pressures. This combined will be uniformly better for the consumer but the media focus, in order to get clicks, will be focused on auto dealer profitability which shouldn’t matter to most people who do not own auto dealers
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Inflation is dead, totally dead. Even the Fed isn’t even attempting to jawbone interest rates up. The U.S. economy is incredibly large, resilient and productive such that the U.S. economy was able to have larger fiscal deficits than every other developed economy and grow faster while having faster economic growth, lower unemployment, and have just 36 months of the Y/Y CPI be greater than 3% despite the largest supply side and demand side shocks in a generation

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Economics coverage is nearly uniformly negative and has become so because that’s what gets clicks - see
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ow, you're there, huh? The "media is all against me but trust just the news that I point out, not the general trend" argument LOL. This argument is basically as intelligent as, "I just don't believe it and neither should you."

Also, do you know what "uniformly" means?
Unit US auto sales are up from the inflationary period in 2021-2022 (
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) yet dealers have loads of inventory. This points to substantial increases in automotive manufacturing productivity both in the U.S. and globally (which in the U.S. is indeed at record highs,
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) and it points to sustained downward pressure on prices and disinflationary pressures. This combined will be uniformly better for the consumer but the media focus, in order to get clicks, will be focused on auto dealer profitability which shouldn’t matter to most people who do not own auto dealers
Car makers will be impacted but it's generally benign to the country. Same with the bicycle industry where there was no supply and an overabundance of unmet demand so they kicked manufacturing and ordering into high gear only to become overstocked when the demand came back down. Don't know if they plan to do it with cars but extremely expensive bikes usually on sale by no more than 10% off are being offered at 40-50% off.
Inflation is dead, totally dead.
So... the US will never see inflation again, right? Because this is what totally dead means. Look at how Powell talks and learn how to sound at least a little bit like an adult.
Even the Fed isn’t even attempting to jawbone interest rates up. The U.S. economy is incredibly large, resilient and productive such that the U.S. economy was able to have larger fiscal deficits than every other developed economy and grow faster while having faster economic growth, lower unemployment, and have just 36 months of the Y/Y CPI be greater than 3% despite the largest supply side and demand side shocks in a generation

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Look at you childishly overreacting so hard that your English fell apart LOL

The US does have tricks to throw all of its allies under the bus to save itself when it's in economic distress. Growing faster than every over developed nation really only means that it grew faster than its allies which it drained and a Russia that is fighting the combined efforts of over 30 countries. But it was never about beating these old European democracies, was it? There's one country that the US wants so desperately to do better than and it's just not ;) And even though you say you don't care, America's politicians all do.
 
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horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Some old articles.

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Joe Biden has criticised food companies for alleged “shrinkflation”, making products smaller while keeping prices the same, in a video to mark the Super Bowl.
The US president criticised big consumer brands for a shrinkflation “rip-off” on Sunday night and said the “American public is tired of being played for suckers”.

Everyone was piling onto this issue.

Even Cookie Monster is complaining about the US economy now​


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The gluttonous blue Sesame Street character known for gorging on cookies expressed his dismay at “shrinkflation” Monday in a post on X. Cookie Monster is apparently feeling the pain of high prices and an elevated cost of living, which have led to, among other things, the downsizing of certain consumer goods without an accompanying drop in their price.
“Me hate shrinkflation! Me cookies are getting smaller,” Cookie Monster wrote. “Guess me going to have to eat double da cookies!”

:D
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Inflation is dead except housing is already 60% up compared to three years ago and everything else about 30%. Just because the head line delta is going back to normal doesn’t mean the price increases didn’t already happen.

Wages are no where near +60% what they were three years ago; so in fact the average American is poorer when it comes to purchasing power.
 
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