American Economics Thread

56860

Senior Member
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While it is true that de-dollarization has started. Just understand that due to network effects, the sheer size of USD's dominance in global markets will take many years to erode.

There's quite a bit of time before Titanic sinks. Though to be fair, a few years goes by in a blink of an eye, and I'm not even 30.
I am truly glad to be living in an era where the world transitions from Pax Anglo to Pax Sinica. Imagine being born 1800-1950 as a Chinese. We're all incredibly fortunate.
 

luminary

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US Manufacturing is Slowing—Excluding the Record Spending on Semiconductor Fabricators and Tech Manufacturing Plants
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Those conditions have caused a major slowdown in the goods-related sectors of America’s economy—output is stalling, hiring has slowed down, and capital expenditure plans are being wound back. Even related industries like warehousing and truck transportation are struggling. Growth in US manufacturing production has declined substantially, with output actually shrinking slightly over the last year while still remaining below 2018 levels in aggregate.
For the bulk of 2022 and all of 2023, American manufacturers have seen conditions progressively worsen—across the 5 regional Fed manufacturing surveys, monthly expansion has been a rarity, especially in recent prints. More and more plants are reporting struggles with low demand (instead of materials or labor shortages) as consumer spending weakens, and firms have
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. Indeed, there are already strong signs of fading manufacturing labor demand—a possible harbinger of further pain coming for the industry and its workers—and baseline manufacturing strength is likely lower than headline figures would suggest.
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There is, however, one bright spot in the manufacturing slowdown—an investment boom in the high-tech manufacturing industries receiving billions in investments from the Federal government after the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Construction of new semiconductor fabricators, especially in the American Southwest, now constitutes a massive share of overall US industrial investment and has contributed to a bump in
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. As of March,
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in the computer/electronic and semiconductor manufacturing industries was higher than at any point in the decade preceding 2022.
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The two sunbelt regions are undoubtedly the fastest-growing centers for American manufacturing—since 2017,
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, and Texas alone added 54,000 manufacturing jobs last year.

It’s not just construction that’s being boosted either—
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remains above pre-pandemic highs even as it has marginally fallen over the last year,
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for capital goods from domestic manufacturers likewise remain near record highs, and
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jumped at the start of this year. Still, as much as these new investments are extremely massive stimulus efforts directed at America’s manufacturing sector, they remain a small part of the country’s existing industrial capacity—the rest of which is doing extremely poorly by comparison.
 

Stierlitz

Junior Member
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Personal spending in the United States remained unchanged from the previous period in March 2023, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent increase in February and compared with market forecasts of a 0.1 percent decline. The lack of growth can be attributed to the still-elevated inflation rate and higher borrowing costs, which put a strain on consumer spending. Consumption of services saw a 0.4 percent increase, driven by higher spending on housing and utilities as well as healthcare services. In contrast, consumption of goods decreased by 0.6 percent, with lower spending on motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods.

source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
 

Strangelove

Colonel
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Phone call from Janet Yellen in....3, 2, 1

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  • Stanley Druckenmiller is shorting the US dollar after missing last year's rally.
  • He said it will keep falling due to interest rate cuts and a rise in non-dollar trade agreements.
  • "And you have Lula running around asking why we have to do trade in the US dollar, and he's right to."
 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
While it is true that de-dollarization has started. Just understand that due to network effects, the sheer size of USD's dominance in global markets will take many years to erode.

There's quite a bit of time before Titanic sinks. Though to be fair, a few years goes by in a blink of an eye, and I'm not even 30.

You're repeating the talking points of the western mainstream press, the very nature of network effects means speed of growth or collapse is exponential nor non-linear, especially when critical mass is achieved. When it happens, it would be rather quick.

Critical mass is when the BRICS, already with GDP greater than G7, are pushing the dedollarization momentum, while US debt grows exponentially further than the Burj Khalifa

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US debt & Burj Khalifa.jpg
 
D

Deleted member 23272

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I mean, in a sense its good of the government to insure the deposits of all these failed banks. But as always, where the hell is the money coming from?
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Funny how these government departments only work in the weekend..

It is kind of odd, but I think most of the recent crisis to the entire system, the banking/financial system in the United States, they want to solve the problem on the weekend.

Banks are closed, and the market are closed. If there is going to be a deal, the clock ticks very quickly.

Then by Monday morning, another deal to avert the crisis, and confidence is restored.

I think in the past, when the United States was a lot stronger, it did not matter. They would used the weekend as a tactical negotiation period.

Times change.
 
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