American Economics Thread

Maikeru

Maikeru

Major
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Biscuits said:
And the infighting is already starting.

I don't dare to make a definite prediction, but let's say that I wouldn't be surprised if drop in living standards, mounting economic pressure and subject republics jumping ship causes America to have its own Yeltsin moment, and Ukraine becomes remembered as their Afghanistan...
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I always thought the USA's Afghanistan was, well, Afghanistan?
 
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canonicalsadhu

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The American attempt at an industrial policy to build electric vehicles and batteries has, once again, fallen flat. The recently released list of firms selected for $2.8 billion of funding shows as much. They look more like late-stage R&D projects than companies ready to scale.

Earlier this month, the Biden administration
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that will be funded by the President’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to expand domestic production of EV batteries and the grid, and “for materials and components currently imported from other countries.” Instead of focusing on manufacturing — its biggest weakness — the US Department of Energy has backed firms that will process lithium, “demonstrate new approaches” and recycle powerpacks.

That is misguided — and won’t get the US any closer to the heft of China’s battery economy. The biggest issue is the outlays target parts of the supply chain that are either not as difficult to set up and scale, or further down the value ladder, like processing of lithium, graphite and other materials. It doesn’t focus enough on cell and cathode manufacturing, the most important elements. The government’s investment is expected to be matched by recipients to reach more than $9 billion.

Of the 20 companies participating, most will either separate and process materials or make components like anodes and separators. None are focused on making battery cells and packs or extracting raw metals and elements — the key processes at the beginning and end. Producing cells is tough to begin with because of the constantly evolving manufacturing practices including automation. In addition, their large size and electric charge, along with elements like nickel and cobalt, makes them difficult to handle and control for quality. Sourcing experienced battery engineers is also getting harder.

It’s unclear where the supplies of nickel, lithium and cobalt will come from, or how the US plants will scale up, because most of the investment has been allocated toward yet-to-be fully-proven powerpack technology that’s still not commercially viable. In the meantime, large battery makers have announced big plans — and they too will require supplies.

This patchwork approach won’t work. Countries like Indonesia, for instance, are taking on raw material processing because they have vast nickel resources. Jakarta has used that to
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likes Tesla Inc., LG Energy Solution Ltd. and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., and will then leverage this to build out a domestic supply chain, while maintaining a large stake in the global one. Seen through that lens, it doesn’t make sense for the US to focus on disparate parts of the value ladder. Meanwhile, part of the Biden administration’s funding was meant to help create “good-paying” jobs as these sectors grow — in theory. If these projects aren’t scalable or commercially viable, how will they boost employment?

The sad reality is, the US has been here before. This is
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, when the Obama administration laid out more than $90 billion for clean energy. It was supposed to drive innovation, modernize the grid and boost manufacturing. Companies like industrial battery manufacturer A123 Systems LLC, along with several other energy firms that had taken over $800 million of grants and loans and promised thousands of jobs,
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Billions of dollars
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for lithium-ion powerpacks, recycling, EV components and charging stations. Over a decade later, the US still wasn’t able to meet its own goals that included dominating green sectors and technologies, nor has it been able to get ahead of China. That’s because it never sharpened its mish-mash of a policy and failed to target core areas it could have established a firm grip on.

Ironically, that was around the same time China had turned its attention to batteries — a game-changer for EVs and energy storage. In 2012, when A123 was going bust, Beijing designated the sector a key strategic industry. The country’s focused policy around its automotive sector and deep supply chain has catapulted it on to the world stage, allowing manufacturers like Tesla Inc. to reduce prices and churn out hundreds of thousands of vehicles. Elsewhere, carmakers haven’t been able to manage the incessant price rises without eroding margins or produce enough EVs to meet emissions targets and promises.

At this point, it isn’t really a competition between America and China, the world’s largest market for electric vehicles and manufacturer of batteries. It’s now about US industrial policy against, well, itself.
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xypher

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reservior dogs

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NiuBiDaRen said:

Lately I've been listening to this geopolitics commentator from Singapore. He rises above the drivel and offers a good take on the reality of EU, USA, Russia and China.
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It is a good summary of what is happening. I don't think Putin start the war not realizing that Russian economy will take a hit. The Russian manufacturing will take a hit due to lack of parts that once come from the West. Some of this can be mitigated by substituting parts that could be sourced elsewhere, but things like auto manufacturing which rely on Western sources will be hit. It is the reason the Russians are limiting the scope of this war. They wanted to outlast the West. In the short to medium term, economic stagnation for Russia is all but guaranteed. What the Chinese can help to ensure is that the basic needs are met. I think this is enough to ensure political stability for Russia. In the longer term, their economy can thrive if they have a higher degree of coupling to the Chinese economy. If one guy offer you prosperity but seek to break up your country, you would choose any other option if you have a choice.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
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NiuBiDaRen said:

Lately I've been listening to this geopolitics commentator from Singapore. He rises above the drivel and offers a good take on the reality of EU, USA, Russia and China.
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Nothing beats the analysis of this intellectual genius, and polymath not to mention a journalist with impeccable integrity and character.

Here he is again with another excellent take on China's economic data "HIDING" showing that communist China has been lying about the size and scope of its economy.



Somebody should tell Germany’s Olaf Sholtz and the rest of Germany’s top industries to instead go to India as their new investment destination since they are far more honest, data driven, economically resilient, vibrant country with a much younger population that's clearly primer for an economic dividend. Not to mention a fabulous Democratic system that comes with all the distinct advantages a commie country like China, with a President for life can only dream of. Eat your heart out Pres. Xi Jinping.
 
supercat

supercat

Major
caudaceus said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587417193502969856
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One of the most pessimistic views about the U.S. economy I hear is that only a recession can solve the impending crisis of diesel shortage.

NiuBiDaRen said:

Lately I've been listening to this geopolitics commentator from Singapore. He rises above the drivel and offers a good take on the reality of EU, USA, Russia and China.
Click to expand...
The demise of Russia economy is greatly exaggerated. Russia has myriad ways to extract itself from economic doom, such as forming a new "nickel OPEC" with countries like Indonesia:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587543541584101396
 
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