American Economics Thread

[FairAndUnbiased]

Well, this is exactly what happened with East Asia, and frankly in general they are still doing far better than US when it was focused on liberal arts. So yes, even if you have to pressure people to study STEM, it will still deliver some tangible results.

More to add on this: employers say they want STEM but they actually don't. They want STEM . Software and IT #1, engineering #2, everything else is mediocre and biological sciences - the most popular STEM field - is worse than psychology or business. You are 100x better off majoring in some shit like literature and clawing your way up a basic office 'analyst' job than doing biology.

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another example of how employers want STEM: for someone that works in semiconductor, I actually don't talk to EEs very often. People I meet most commonly have degrees in chemistry, chemical engineering, materials science, physics, etc. why is that? well, one is that this is more materials based field for equipment/precursor and the like, but also because EEs have a choice to work an office software job that makes 50% more money and doesn't require physical work.

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You need to be able to lift 50 lbs with unassisted to work at Hitachi as an etch engineer and this isn't exactly uncommon.

STEM not STEM. Or, a better abbreviation: Software, Technology, Engineering, Management.

 

[Coalescence]

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[9dashline]

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View attachment 96123

The American dream, suburbia, big house with white picket fence and all that, was never sustainable and only ever transitory when EROEI > 50 and China hadnt yet climbed the value chain....

Like France Pres said, the Era of Abundance is Overz

 

[FriedButter]

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday pledged that the central bank will “use our tools forcefully” to attack inflation that is still running near its highest level in more than 40 year

“While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” he said in prepared remarks. “These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”

“We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%,” he said. Looking into the future, the central bank leader added that “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”

AKA summary is basically this.

“In essence, Powell is clearly stating that right now, fighting inflation is more important than supporting growth,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.

Looks like the economy is in for a very rough ride. Quite frankly, I don’t think Powell actually lying in this case but his more then likely still downplaying how severe it could be.

 

[FriedButter]

IMO. I think a culling is impeding. Credit Card debts and other debts has been surging and with continued raising rates for longer periods with Powell warning of pain to households and business points to one thing. The central bank will now be targeting demand to kill inflation. Once again, the common folk will be sacrificed for the greater good.

 

[9dashline]

IMO. I think a culling is impeding. Credit Card debts and other debts has been surging and with continued raising rates for longer periods with Powell warning of pain to households and business points to one thing. The central bank will now be targeting demand to kill inflation. Once again, the common folk will be sacrificed for the greater good.

Deagel 2025, about 60% will be "culled"... its the only way US has a fighting chance against China, to get rid of the old and frail and those on the life support systems like Social Security which itself is on life support... (my dad just collected his very first check this month) basically the elite of America has decided it time to harvest the "useless eaters"

 

[FriedButter]

Looks like the economy is in for a very rough ride. Quite frankly, I don’t think Powell actually lying in this case but his more then likely still downplaying how severe it could be.

Never mind, it looks like Powell isn’t actually downplaying it. He straight up said it is critical that the Feds proactively manage the expectations if they are to avoid a “Volcker-like outcome” by acting “with resolve now.” These speeches are all prepared and the words are carefully chosen (for obvious reasons).

We know that they changed the way inflation is defined decades ago. Powell comparing it to Volcker does not bold well for optimism on the general economy. He also said “lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy” was needed in the 1980s. So prepare for pain to come for the average joe. Globally that is.

Specifically, Powell said the inflation of 40 years ago provides the current Fed with three lessons: That central banks like the Fed are responsible for managing inflation, that expectations are critical and that “we must keep at it until the job is done.”

Powell noted that the Fed’s failure to act forcefully in the 1970s caused a perpetuation of high inflation expectations that led to the draconian rate hikes of the early 1980s. In that case, then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker pulled the economy into recession to tame inflation.

While stating repeatedly that he doesn’t think recession is an inevitable outcome for the U.S. economy, Powell noted that managing expectations is critical if the Fed is going to avoid a Volcker-like outcome.

In the early 1980s, “a lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year,” Powell said. “Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now. ”Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.”

One concept molding Powell’s thinking is “rational inattention.” Essentially, that means people pay less attention to inflation when it is low and more when it is high.

 

[9dashline]

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View attachment 96123

This is why I've said time and again it all comes back to being about EROEI aka net usable energy. And that the modern concept of money is really just a claim on energy deposit since its energy that gives work its multiplier effect of productivity.

Simple thought experiment, imagine instead of letting millions go dark without power the American gov simply sends them a power stamp much like a food stamp to subsidize their energy costs, this simply means more money is printed into the system, further eroding and devaluing the purchasing power of the dollar and diluting the value of savings people had stored in the bank.... but no matter how much you print, just stimmy brrring alone doesnt actually create more energy and thereby is akin to reshuffling the chairs on the deck of the sinking Titanic, or keeping the refrigerator door open in hopes it might cool down the house after the central AC failed. Anyway you put it, there is no avoiding the fact that as EROEI diminishes so too does the dollar continue to deflate.....

 

[Nutrient]

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"20 million US homes are behind on energy bills"

According to

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, in 2021 there were 83.9 million families in the US; twenty million homes is almost a quarter of the US. So the consequences will be dreadful.

 

[Andy1974]

Never mind, it looks like Powell isn’t actually downplaying it. He straight up said it is critical that the Feds proactively manage the expectations if they are to avoid a “Volcker-like outcome” by acting “with resolve now.” These speeches are all prepared and the words are carefully chosen (for obvious reasons).

We know that they changed the way inflation is defined decades ago. Powell comparing it to Volcker does not bold well for optimism on the general economy. He also said “lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy” was needed in the 1980s. So prepare for pain to come for the average joe. Globally that is.

It’s like quantum inflation? It only becomes visible when measured? So the solution is to not measure it so as to better manage expeditions, or lie.