So did previous presidents.
American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
- Start date
From Chicago Tribune:
This is an extreme example of US not keeping their infrastructure up to date and so "saving" many billions of dollars, wasting very many more billions of dollars.
There have been an improvement. A few years ago a manual switch in the path of all trains going through Chicago was replaced by a mechanical one about halve a century after manual switches became extinct in the Netherlands.
This is an extreme example of US not keeping their infrastructure up to date and so "saving" many billions of dollars, wasting very many more billions of dollars.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Today's oil prices are helping US drillers beat OPEC. Goldman's Jeffrey Currie explains how
May 17, 2017
OPEC [/a], according to Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs.
U.S. companies that rely on expensive drilling methods have become more efficient, frustrating OPEC's two-year effort to end a crude glut by pumping at maximum capacity to wash out high-cost producers. Even after OPEC relented and cut its own production to balance the market this year, resurgent American output has helped push global crude stockpiles to historic highs.
(New York Mercantile Exchange: @CL.1) prices in a band between about $44 and $55 a barrel. Currie believes prices won't break out until investors see "real, observable inventory draws."" style="margin-bottom: 1em;">That has kept U.S. oil (New York Mercantile Exchange: @CL.1) prices in a band between about $44 and $55 a barrel. Currie believes prices won't break out until investors see "real, observable inventory draws."
While that's the stated goal of OPEC's deal with other exporters to remove a combined 1.8 million barrels a day from the market, Currie thinks the cartel has another aim in mind.
"Power Lunch"[/a] on Wednesday.
U.S. crude oil price structure" style="margin-bottom: 1em;">U.S. crude oil price structure
OPEC wants oil for immediate delivery to trade at a premium to crude sold for future shipment because the current market structure — contango — benefits the cartel's competition.
In contango, today's oil prices are cheaper than prices in the future. That works somewhat in U.S. drillers' favor because they heavily hedge their production, Currie explained, meaning they lock in a future price for delivery.
OPEC meets next week to decide whether to extend its six-month deal to cut output. Currie said the market has largely priced in an extension through March 2018 floated by Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier this week." style="margin-bottom: 1em;">"OPEC is too big to hedge, so they get the lower spot prices. What they're after is to flip that curve," he said.
OPEC meets next week to decide whether to extend its six-month deal to cut output. Currie said the market has largely priced in an extension through March 2018 floated by Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier this week.
Asked why oil hadn't rallied further on the growing consensus around rolling over the policy, Currie said, "The market has worn thin on patience."
"If you look at what's happened since the beginning of the year, [the market has] tried to trade the OPEC production cuts, the big draws in the U.S. inventories, and it got stung once in April and again in May," he said.
OPEC might fail [/a]to drive down inventories to that level this year.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
Too many mistakes in that article I don't even know where to begin.
But the drilling cost for US E&PS have not beat OPEC in anyway. There is a reason why OPEC announce a cut and oil rises.
Other than the best plays in the Permian and Eagle Ford where cost of break even is probably around $35-40, Bakken is still very high in the mid $50s. The Permian also have plenty of areas where break even is probably $50.
Also shale have an extremely fast production drop off rate of a year to two, which makes it very capital intensive.
OPEC break even is normally less than $15, less than $10 in KSA or Iraq.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Don't forget that Iranian oil will be in the market as well. That glut of oil can continue to bring oil prices down. The advantage that the US have is fracking drilling technology that can squeeze out old dry oil wells and hard to reach shale places that are abundance with oil.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
Iranian oil have actually very little impact on pricing since it was already accounted for over a year ago.
It is actually very hard to get cracking to work on old wells, since the production methods are so different..different sand, different reservoir rocks, different chemicals. Old conventional wells can be reborn with new conventional extraction methods but not fracking.
Also there is a huge decrease in Venezuelan crude production right now as well.
The opec and non-opec cut is very easy to achieve because there is normally less production in spring anyway due to turnaround and maintenance cycles. But there is also less demand in spring, which is why you don't see storage going down fast in the US. But floating storage have been going down quite a bit.
In the summer, KSA consume a lot more of what they produce, with a summer driving season on 3 big continents and real production cut (not just maintenance), we should start to see storage go down a lot faster.
But OPEC will probably cheat to keep oil below $60, to disencourage US from going all out on crack.
Blackstone
Brigadier
It's only the tip of the iceberg, and sadder still is things will get worse, far worse before it gets better. Economic rent-seeking elites, aided and abetted by public employee unions and the lame stream media, have created a permanent underclass of poorly educated and ill informed voters addicted to bread and circus the elites peddle them like drug pushers. The vicious circle is a rot from within, and it's the only force capable of bringing down the greatest country in human history.
I intentionally delay my response back to you as it seems the subject seems a bit more direct to you. I don't want to rub you the wrong way unintentionally and unnecessarily.
That being said, your fair concerns are part and parcel of the deal. These are risks both sides can manage to minimize, but would be really hard to bring them down to zero, with zero here implies exported foods remain more or less at the same price, or better get cheaper, and imported foods are of acceptable quality to your taste.
But that's the part I'm a bit confused.
Everybody wants trade as they want it, pick all the good ones and reject the yucky ones; essentially making trade associated with a kaleidoscopic range of adjectives with negative overtones, like "unfair","disastrous", etc. In a way it reflects the amount of skin in the game I believe. It's the first time in history that a sizable portion of Western population feel the negative sides of globalization. Basically globalization is moving along a path Western nations cannot control 100% like in previous version of globalization, aka, colonization.
In the previous versions, weaker Eastern and other colonized nations didn't have any control over the process. Nobody heard or cared about the local populations' suffering.
Now East is slowly driving the globalization and gradually reversing the course in their favor. It's going to hurt them a little, but much much milder than what our fore-bearers suffered at the onslaught of previous globalization.
This is a long time coming.
Are you surprised? Rot from within has been the only force capable of bringing down any great nation throughout human history.
Blackstone
Brigadier
Morose, yes; surprised, no.