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American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
- Start date
Unemployment actually went down. So either boomers decided to retire early and/or Labour participation rate is crashing. Last time I read the rate fell back to the equivalent of 1980Thats an extremely low number. I think US might be entering stagflation territory
Btw Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model is going to be updated today for Q3 growth
America's economy is coming under pressure from two opposite forces. On the one hand there is the growing debt and elevated asset prices. And on the other hand there is strong and growing inflation. In order to make the debt serviceable and keep asset prices elevated. You need low interest rate and easy money. But in order to fight inflation you need higher interest rate and tighten monetary policies. You can only have the one or the other but you can't have both.
The choice's for America going forward is either to have a massive debt default going all the way to the US government itself and a massive asset price collapse greater than in 1929. Or they can watch a economy that is 70% consumption being crushed by stagflation.
That last one is no longer a theory. Something that could happen in the future. But its already happening now. Stagflation has already been confirmed in the august data set. In september we have seen more of unemployment and inflation going up simultaneously. And if you look at employment, credit to businesses, money velocity and consumer sentiment data its all going down.
The choice's for America going forward is either to have a massive debt default going all the way to the US government itself and a massive asset price collapse greater than in 1929. Or they can watch a economy that is 70% consumption being crushed by stagflation.
That last one is no longer a theory. Something that could happen in the future. But its already happening now. Stagflation has already been confirmed in the august data set. In september we have seen more of unemployment and inflation going up simultaneously. And if you look at employment, credit to businesses, money velocity and consumer sentiment data its all going down.
America's economy is coming under pressure from two opposite forces. On the one hand there is the growing debt and elevated asset prices. And on the other hand there is strong and growing inflation. In order to make the debt serviceable and keep asset prices elevated. You need low interest rate and easy money. But in order to fight inflation you need higher interest rate and tighten monetary policies. You can only have the one or the other but you can't have both.
The choice's for America going forward is either to have a massive debt default going all the way to the US government itself and a massive asset price collapse greater than in 1929. Or they can watch a economy that is 70% consumption being crushed by stagflation.
That last one is no longer a theory. Something that could happen in the future. But its already happening now. Stagflation has already been confirmed in the august data set. In september we have seen more of unemployment and inflation going up simultaneously. And if you look at employment, credit to businesses, money velocity and consumer sentiment data its all going down.
Yes, I think stagflation is the most likely outcome in the US
The reason that the unemployment rate is going down is because of people leaving the labour force ie people stop actively looking for a job for a period of three weeks.Unemployment actually went down. So either boomers decided to retire early and/or Labour participation rate is crashing. Last time I read the rate fell back to the equivalent of 1980
The unemployment numbers are down but so is the labour force participation rate.
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Stagflation is already here! The only question now is how much damage will it do to the US economy.Yes, I think stagflation is the most likely outcome in the US
I think that's why the latest comment from Amb Tai while hawkish in nature turns out allows "tariffs exemption". It's a stopgap solution that at least can save Biden's face from the Republican onslaught.Stagflation is already here! The only question now is how much damage will it do to the US economy.
Tariffs exceptions would definetely help if done correctly by the Biden administration. The issue is, as you said, that this is merely a stopgap solution which only delays the inevitableI think that's why the latest comment from Amb Tai while hawkish in nature turns out allows "tariffs exemption". It's a stopgap solution that at least can save Biden's face from the Republican onslaught.
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Elon Musk’s SpaceX reached a valuation of $100 billion after a sale of its shares on the secondary market, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
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