American Economics Thread

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
Sure thing, it's not like the US manufactures $2 trillion of output per year, substantially in chemicals, aircraft, and semicon (while China doesn't even have aircraft and semiconductors). The US makes things China can't and/or doesn't.

Louisiana is <2% of US GDP. NOLA is even smaller.

The US economy is growing at 6% this year. That's called "up".
Not that impressive when the 6% growth is hyped up due to money money printing and even then the massive 32.9 drop in the economy from last year 2nd quarter is not going to be easy to make up for when a very significant number of people in the USA are literally one government handout from being kicked out onto the street.
also to note is that China is catching up in terms of aircraft and semiconductors, if they aren’t, then why is Boeing complaining

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The USA isn’t what they used to be, if they were, then why did covid cause the USA such damage and how come they cannot handle covid when they knew in advance that there is a pandemic

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ODEPDE

New Member
Registered Member
Those services can replaced for one and in regards to the growth of the industrial production, just how great is the growth when the number of jobs provided is a lot less then the jobs that are actually lost.
If they could be replaced, then they already would have. They haven't because there is private sector need. Furthermore, yes manufacturing employment has been stagnant but manufacturing *value* has been increasing because the US economy has been manufacturing far more valuable outputs that China can't make: semiconductors, quantum computers, commercial aircraft, aircraft engines, avionics, machine tools, scientific instruments, biotechnology, medical devices, robots, etc.

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The date on this article was April 2020. No one in the US cares about COVID anymore. Literally no one. Those job losses didn't happen and now they won't happen because COVID is functionally over.
Also please take a look at all the tent cities in the USA, particular in California and Chicago to see just how poorly the entire economy have been handled by each succeeding administration.
The United States has high income and wealth inequality. Still doesn't change the fact that the 200M+ strong labor force is incredibly productive and innovative,
 

ODEPDE

New Member
Registered Member
No the impressive when the 6% growth is hyped up due to money money printing and even then the massive 32.9 drop in the economy from last year 2nd quarter is not going to be easy to make up for when a very significant number of people in the USA are literally one government handout from being kicked out onto the street
The COVID drop in the US economy is gone. The "money money printing" is going to cause the GDP change (total not percentage) in the United States to be larger than China's GDP change in 2020. And the economy is going to continue to expand rapidly in 2021 because of all the fiscal packages reaching the finish line including the Innovation & Competition Act, American Families Plan and the Infrastructure Investment Act
 

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ODEPDE

New Member
Registered Member
The so called labor shortage is due to diminishing EROEI and America running out of Energy Slaves
That's a new one from you.
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Now they have to import waves of undocumented immigrants,
The Immigration and Nationality Act has been US law since 1965. Try to find literally something new.
Tom Cotton saying America needs to lock up far more people in its prison system (read 13th amendment allows slave labor for convicts, 40 cents per hour if they are lucky) but these are not sustainable strategies in the long run
??, Republicans are "tough on crime"
.... CRT will rip this nation apart.... this is the stuff that civil wars are made of....
Critical Race Theory is a niche sociology and legal topic that became a few conservative outrage cycles before dying lol.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
That's a new one from you.

The Immigration and Nationality Act has been US law since 1965. Try to find literally something new.

??, Republicans are "tough on crime"

Critical Race Theory is a niche sociology and legal topic that became a few conservative outrage cycles before dying lol.
How much longer do you reckon this sleight of hand American Great Harvesting can go on?

China is only playing along right now to shore up its own position, once its EUV is breakthrough and "wind farms" get finished, its going Dual Circulate America back to the Stone Age.

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horse

Colonel
Registered Member
How much longer do you reckon this sleight of hand American Great Harvesting can go on?

China is only playing along right now to shore up its own position, once its EUV is breakthrough and "wind farms" get finished, its going Dual Circulate America back to the Stone Age.

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High tech exports - Country rankings​


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another one ...

High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports) - Country Ranking​


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The United States is still an important country, but compared to China, they are already behind in many number of ways and metrics, and it is unlikely, more like never, that we will see the roles reversed in our lifetime.

World trade is centered around China, as far as China is concerned.

:)
 

Fedupwithlies

Junior Member
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Theres a lot of missed opportunity for the US in their War on Terror. 21 trillion, yikes!
Safe to say the peace dividend ended on Sept 11. Wonder if there will be the peace dividend again now that the US has pulled out of Afghanistan. The problem seems to be that the militarization after 9/11 continued into the civilian police and now they're the ones sucking up peace dividend.
 

Fedupwithlies

Junior Member
Registered Member
The so called labor shortage is due to diminishing EROEI and America running out of Energy Slaves

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Now they have to import waves of undocumented immigrants, Tom Cotton saying America needs to lock up far more people in its prison system (read 13th amendment allows slave labor for convicts, 40 cents per hour if they are lucky) but these are not sustainable strategies in the long run.... CRT will rip this nation apart.... this is the stuff that civil wars are made of....

Oh shit. Back in 2013 I was involved in a project that was trying to quantify the quality of life and the amount of energy available to someone to do "stuff." This isn't a new idea, back in the 1980's (at the very least, and probably even earlier) there was this idea that if you build power stations or extend power lines (and in this case, gas stations and gas lines as well) to an area with a lower quality of life, the mere presence of the new availability of energy will lead to quality of life increases. This idea was really popular in the 80's and 90's (again, probably earlier as well but that was the limit of my research) but started to stagnate in the 90's and really got debunked in the 2000's.

The impetus for the debunking was basically, the quality of life of Americans not really improving when they got even more energy access. On the other hand, Chinese quality of life was still improving a lot as they got energy access.

My 2013 project was to look specifically at energy for transport - the idea was that, as more accessible transport is available, the better the quality of life. We looked at distance, velocity, cost ect for predominant modes of travel in a region.

The funny thing was that several regions of China was beating some regions in the US - 2013 was just when China's HSR network was becoming mature.

The project never got published because of it. "It just didn't pass the sniff test", apparently. Because according to our own metric, some Chinese people would be living better lives than some Americans, and, without even looking into whether that was true or not, the people funding the project just assumed that was impossible and stopped funding.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Oh shit. Back in 2013 I was involved in a project that was trying to quantify the quality of life and the amount of energy available to someone to do "stuff." This isn't a new idea, back in the 1980's (at the very least, and probably even earlier) there was this idea that if you build power stations or extend power lines (and in this case, gas stations and gas lines as well) to an area with a lower quality of life, the mere presence of the new availability of energy will lead to quality of life increases. This idea was really popular in the 80's and 90's (again, probably earlier as well but that was the limit of my research) but started to stagnate in the 90's and really got debunked in the 2000's.

The impetus for the debunking was basically, the quality of life of Americans not really improving when they got even more energy access. On the other hand, Chinese quality of life was still improving a lot as they got energy access.

My 2013 project was to look specifically at energy for transport - the idea was that, as more accessible transport is available, the better the quality of life. We looked at distance, velocity, cost ect for predominant modes of travel in a region.

The funny thing was that several regions of China was beating some regions in the US - 2013 was just when China's HSR network was becoming mature.

The project never got published because of it. "It just didn't pass the sniff test", apparently. Because according to our own metric, some Chinese people would be living better lives than some Americans, and, without even looking into whether that was true or not, the people funding the project just assumed that was impossible and stopped funding.
Imagine you are in 1980s China, taking a shower at home with just a small portable heater for your hot water stream... Usually you can average say 5 minutes of warm shower before it gives out... When water starts getting cooler, you turn the knob increasingly to the Hot side to try and revert to maintaining a stable and comfortably warm shower temp... but then you have to keep turning the knob more and more to Hot side and faster and faster until soon you are at full deflection... So when the water starts going cold yet once again, thats it... game over for the warm shower experiment...

In just the last year or so America printed about 50% of all its US dollars in circulation since the entire history of the nation (some 245 years old)...

Money (be it physical paper or digital bits on a financial server an as electronic ledger entry etc) is just a human construct to symbolically represent or tally up claims on resources/energy...

At the end of the day its the raw resources and the energy that allows us to perform "work" that counts. Just printing more money (especially runaway printing like QE infinity) without discovering more oil or finding more resources does nothing to change the underlining physical and thermodynamic/entropy reality ... it doesnt increase real wealth...

Its just a bandaid cover up solution where the more you use the bandaid the bigger the hole gets...

A gallon of gas has the same energy as 6 weeks of human muscle labor. Even at minimum wage, the lowest paid member of US society can currently buy about 2 gallons of gas (12 weeks man muscle power) for about one hour of work. This is a huge energy/work multiplier effect afforded to us by the consumption of energy sources (in this case fossil fuels) that accumulated over billions of years on earth but which globally we have expended to near depletion within the comparitive blink of an eye (150 years since industrial revolution)

Much of our current purchasing power of money is inflated by this massive windfall of "multiplier effect of work/energy" from our consumption of nonrenewable hydrocarbons deposits.
Globally we are still a predominantly fossil fuel society, primary fuel is still that of the petroluem and its derivatives, we never left the oil age. It used to take 1 barrel of oil energy to discover, extract, refine and make useable 100 barrels of oil energy... long gone are the days of EROEI of 100, we now have fallen below the EROEI of 10 and still crashing.... all the low hanging fruits are gone... Global energy consumption (of all energy sources) peaked back in 2019... even before Covid.

As EROEI threshold continues to drop and thus the real purchasing power and "work multiplier" of our monies/curriencies continue to get diluted the central banks of governments have to increasingly print more and more dollars to temporarily bandaid the situation... But bankers and governments cannot cheat the 2nd law of thermodynamics, and unlike fractional reserve lending, you cannot borrow energy from nature as a loan with expectation/promise to pay it back later......

The labor shortage is a direct result of deminishing EROEI. Minimum wage has stayed the same $7.25 since 2009 but real inflation is now double digits annually... Companies wouldnt have trouble finding labor/workers if they paid a living wage or even what they paid decades ago when adjusted for inflation and rise in cost of living... but that would mean a true minimum wage of nearly $30/hr just to keep up with the $7.25 first implemented back in 2009.

But we know thats not going to happen (there is not even the politicial will to pass the $15 ) and even if it did happen it would simply pass on that cost price inflation to the rest of the consumers, businesses cannot afford to pay this sort of labor increase and never can middle class consumers eat the costs ... As the EROEI (and thus work multiplier effect) of energy continues to decrease and thus so does the purchasing power of money continue to erode, its basically hitting everything and everyone from both ends and all at the same time, so consumers wont be able to buy the things they need/want even if they have the money, and labor shortages will only exacerbate as no one wants to be a literal wage slave.

There comes a point where printing more money (which was always nothing more than reshuffling around of chairs on the deck of the sinking Titanic) will no longer mask (no pun intended) the symptoms anymore and I would wager to reckon we have already crossed that point when America has to print 50% of all dollars in the entire history of its empire just to maintain the semblence of barely staying afloat on life support.

Via petrodollar hegemony and global reserve status of USD, the US extracts wealth from the rest of the world... but like all things on the top of the food pyramid chain it relies on the much larger lower bottom base to prop it up. Since the global energy resources have peaked, then mathematically it is all but certainty that global de-growth will be the reality going forward... No more global growth means the entire pyramid scheme and house of cards that America built its empire upon will come collapsing down...

As the US is the current global hegemon, the only way it can get out from under its own petrodollar hegemony FIRST without attracting the wrong kind of attention and alerting/setting off global panic of selling dollars is to invent a global distraction (CIA releases COVID) and then follow it up with global chaos (Afghan, Taiwan, HK, SCS, etc) to give the pretext justification for printing like there is no tomorrow, in order to get out from the dollar leaving the rest of the world holding the bag.... and furthermore by destabilizing the world through engineered chaos the US is inducing artificial global demand destruction to price most of the world out so that it can print to infinity with unlimited "quantitative-easings" to buy up everything with essentially free money.

Having seen the writing on the wall (see REPO mess) America's strategy is to exit the dollar and leave the rest of the world, including China to be holding the proverbial bag of excrement, and its intentional COVID failure, and Afghan failures are all part of its pre-planned exit strategy to create global chaos and induce artificial-demand-destruction on global scale in order to best position itself for the coming times and shore up and consolidate its own positions at the direct expense of harvesting the rest of the world by means of infinite quantitative easing through weaponization of its petrodollar hegemony and global reserve currency status

Releasing the CIA Biovirus and setting off a global pandemic (whilsts simultaneously planting it in Wuhan to both frame and blame CHYNA its greatest geopolitical rival in the process) with continued "variants" iteration releases serves to effectuate the goal of severely dampening global economic activity, and disproportionately targeting the developing third world (since they will get hit the hardest economically and also recover the slowest due to US vaccine shitplomacy hoarding...) thereby indirectly allowing America to put the squeeze on the rest of the world, asymmetrically targeting non-vassals and pricing out the poorer regions of the world so that they are much less able to compete for the remaining dwindling global resources/energy reserves

In geopolitics there are no Coincidences... COVID was THE single largest broadest categorical stroke of the proverbial brush so to speak that the US/West could have painted against China and the East (and rest of developing world) under the guise, pretense and shadow of plausible denialability whilsts effectuating the desired goal of reshaping a new world order with the West back on top and America consolidated and secured as preeminence above all.....
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
@9dashline

Couple of points.

1. I'd stop mentioning the CIA Biovirus as there isn't any proof.

2. It's more impactful to say that in the past 2 years, the amount of USD in circulation has doubled.

3. China won't be left holding the bag when the USD devalues.
When it happens, China will be the first to dump its USD holdings, primarily leaving the Middle East and Japan to soak up the losses
I imagine it will be the mother of all fire sales around the world
 
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