American Economics Thread

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is not in the interests of foreign elites. Why would they accept Chinese dominance of trade like this without freebies like being able to own real estate in Beijing or reserved slots for their fail children in Tsinghua?

This arrangement is actually pretty bad for the other countries and they will resist to the end unless they have no choice (i.e. western sanctions).
No one is talking about the interest of foreign elites, issue is on the those nations wanting to avoid having US exporting inflation to them by playing with interest rate. That alone suffice to make 30+ major trading nations with the Chinese sign currency swap deal.

Beside, why the need to use a 3rd party currency when their biggest trade partner is China ?
 

PUFF_DRAGON

New Member
Registered Member
No one is talking about the interest of foreign elites, issue is on the those nations wanting to avoid having US exporting inflation to them by playing with interest rate. That alone suffice to make 30+ major trading nations with the Chinese sign currency swap deal.

Beside, why the need to use a 3rd party currency when their biggest trade partner is China ?

The discussion here was about "RMB as a global reserve currency" which means you need to allow foreigners to buy Chinese domestic assets and make it freely convertible. If you can only buy Chinese goods and services (but not assets) with RMB and you can't freely convert it into other currencies, it's literally not a reserve currency.

China's government has clearly decided they don't want to pay the cost in terms of trade deficits and hot money inflows/outflows to make the RMB a global reserve currency and that is a perfectly valid and intelligent decision.

What is not intelligent is the people who don't know what a global reserve currency is making up fantasies about how China can make the RMB the center of global forex markets with almost no downsides. This is like the Americans who thought they could nation-build Afghanistan and Iraq into mini-Americas on a shoe string budget.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
The discussion here was about "RMB as a global reserve currency" which means you need to allow foreigners to buy Chinese domestic assets and make it freely convertible. If you can only buy Chinese goods and services (but not assets) with RMB and you can't freely convert it into other currencies, it's literally not a reserve currency.

China's government has clearly decided they don't want to pay the cost in terms of trade deficits and hot money inflows/outflows to make the RMB a global reserve currency and that is a perfectly valid and intelligent decision.

What is not intelligent is the people who don't know what a global reserve currency is making up fantasies about how China can make the RMB the center of global forex markets with almost no downsides. This is like the Americans who thought they could nation-build Afghanistan and Iraq into mini-Americas on a shoe string budget.
Which is moot because China do not intent for RMB to be the main reserve currency.
 

PUFF_DRAGON

New Member
Registered Member
Which is moot because China do not intent for RMB to be the main reserve currency.
Consider this educational since there were people unironically arguing on the last page for the RMB as the global reserve currency but thought China could get away with closed capital markets, no trade deficit, and no convertibility.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
That would just end up with the RMB appreciating to the moon since China would keep getting FX and not spending any of it though if/when China truly reaches that level of industrial strength, the consumer market will be large enough to drive CA deficits
Appreciation can be countered by money printing to inflate the currency which is necessary anyhow to keep up with global demand.
This is not in the interests of foreign elites. Why would they accept Chinese dominance of trade like this without freebies like being able to own real estate in Beijing or reserved slots for their fail children in Tsinghua? It is also not what we would call fair since Chinese firms often push for increased investment access to other countries yet under your paradigm they cannot reciprocally use Chinese RMB to buy Chinese domestic assets.

This arrangement is actually pretty bad for the other countries and they will resist to the end unless they have no choice (i.e. western sanctions).
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30+ bilateral currency swaps of this exact sort have already been conducted.

The benefit for foreign elites is that they can print money that they control and sell it for RMB. RMB can then be used to buy Chinese products and services. The end result is that they can buy physical products and services with printed money.

The second benefit is that it serves as a hedge against holding other currencies.

Finally, foreigners are already buying Chinese assets - bonds - and paying a premium in negative interest rates to do so.

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DarkStar

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Finally, foreigners are already buying Chinese assets - bonds - and paying a premium in negative interest rates to do so.

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This, above all has the anglo americans spooked; if foreign nations are prepared to pay to hold Chinese debt over US debt, what hope is there for financing the US budget?

Yellen's mission is an albatross.
 
D

Deleted member 15949

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Appreciation can be countered by money printing to inflate the currency which is necessary anyhow to keep up with global demand.
If you are printing money to try to deflate the currency, you make imports more expensive (which is problematic when those include natural resources) and engender inflation but more pertinent, financial stability risks.
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30+ bilateral currency swaps of this exact sort have already been conducted.

The benefit for foreign elites is that they can print money that they control and sell it for RMB. RMB can then be used to buy Chinese products and services. The end result is that they can buy physical products and services with printed money

The second benefit is that it serves as a hedge against holding other currencies.
This is true-ish. The big risk and what you do need to mitigate is currency non-convertibility/capital account issues and that the swap lines are fundamentally unsustainable. You are asking foreign partners to risk devaluations and inflation to get a currency they can never spend?
Finally, foreigners are already buying Chinese assets - bonds - and paying a premium in negative interest rates to do so.

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No, they are buying CGBs because it offers DM-like security at EM interest rates (i.e., above zero). But this wouldn't help you, these are RMB inflows and what you need for a reserve currency are RMB outflows.
 
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