Alternate Universe: China as naval superpower

Lets suppose that America became extremely isolationist after WWII like she did after WWI. China joined the Soviet Union in 1955 and major Soviet branches of aircraft, naval, and land warfare production were shifted to China. The Soviet Union disintegrate in 1991 as the result of economic and political reforms that brought forth the long fragmentations caused by culture, ideology, and distance between the Soviet States. China along with Russia are the main successor states. China quickly rebounded from the economic depression after because of the economic and democratic reforms and resumed the role of the world's sole military super power. (United States is the economic super power.)

What kind of naval assets would the Chinese have to ensure offensive capabilities in 2 or more theaters around the globe? Since the Western world is isolationist and is against any exportation of arms, China would only have the most advanced real world Russian or indigenous technology to work with.

My ideal superpower fleet would consists of:
eight 100,000 ton nuclear supercarrier that's an enlarged Ul'yanovsk.

twelve 50,000 ton Sea Control Ships with ski jump bow, conventional powered.

six 25,000 ton nuclear battle cruiser in the likes of Kirov designed as a proto-arsenal ship to add overwhelming firepower to any battle group.

twenty 10,000-15,000 ton conventional cruisers that's enlarged versions of the 052 class. These ships are perfect for lone wolf operations around the globe.

eighty 5000-7,500 ton Aegis destroyers in the likes of the new 051 and 052 classes. They're escorts for the carriers and provide AA defense and also defense against submarines.

200+ Frigates
500+ corvettes, patrol boasts, missile boats, pt boats, coast guard boast....


twenty 50,000 ton LPDs capable of landing a division of troops.

ten 50,000 ton LHD/LHA/etc capable of landing a marine brigade of 6,000 troops and their equipment.

Over 100 fleet axillary ships such as minesweepers, hospital ships, logistic ships, replenishment ships, etc

12 nuclear SSBN
50 nuclear SSN
100 diesel submarines

They'll have a total of 1,000,000 marines, and some 10,000 navy airforce planes.

proelite said:

Lets suppose that America became extremely isolationist after WWII like she did after WWI. China joined the Soviet Union in 1955 and major Soviet branches of aircraft, naval, and land warfare production were shifted to China. The Soviet Union disintegrate in 1991 as the result of economic and political reforms that brought forth the long fragmentations caused by culture, ideology, and distance between the Soviet States. China along with Russia are the main successor states. China quickly rebounded from the economic depression after because of the economic and democratic reforms and resumed the role of the world's sole military super power. (United States is the economic super power.)

What kind of naval assets would the Chinese have to ensure offensive capabilities in 2 or more theaters around the globe? Since the Western world is isolationist and is against any exportation of arms, China would only have the most advanced real world Russian or indigenous technology to work with.

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Well, what did/is the US develop to accomplish the same goals?

12 - 100,000+ ton supercarriers

12 - 40,000 ton LPH Amphib Assault/Sea Control ships

22 - 10,000 ton AEGIS cruisers

52 - 9,000 ton AEGIS destroyers

60 - 2500 ton Littoral Combat Ships

52 - 7-9,000 to SSNs (LA, Sea Wolf, Virginia)

04 - 19,000 ton SSGN

18 - 19,000 ton SSBN

12 - 17-25,000 ton LPDs San Antonio, Austin

12 - 16,000 ton LSDs

My guess is, if the Soviets/Chinese had developed full scale, blue water capabilities as you describe, they would be close to these numbers...and in some areas your predictions are very close...in others there are far too many. (ie. 80 Aegis destoryers, 200 firgates, etc.)

Jeff Head said:

Well, what did/is the US develop to accomplish the same goals?

12 - 100,000+ ton supercarriers

12 - 40,000 ton LPH Amphib Assault/Sea Control ships

22 - 10,000 ton AEGIS cruisers

52 - 9,000 ton AEGIS destroyers

60 - 2500 ton Littoral Combat Ships

52 - 7-9,000 to SSNs (LA, Sea Wolf, Virginia)

04 - 19,000 ton SSGN

18 - 19,000 ton SSBN

12 - 17-25,000 ton LPDs San Antonio, Austin

12 - 16,000 ton LSDs

My guess is, if the Soviets/Chinese had developed full scale, blue water capabilities as you describe, they would be close to these numbers...and in some areas your predictions are very close...in others there are far too many. (ie. 80 Aegis destoryers, 200 firgates, etc.)

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Well, Soviet doctrine prefers missiles to aircraft. I suppose the Chinese fleet would have more destroyers, cruisers and battlecruisers than the USN, and less Aircraft Carriers.

Looking the USN numbers again, I am boggled at how huge the USN is, especially at the ridiculously large submarine fleet.

The superpower PLAN should not be as large as the USN since the USN is capable of fighting two world wars at the same time even though 1/4 of the fleet is docked for maintenance or for replenishment.
And to think that wartime production can put the USN at 5 times its current size.

proelite said:

What kind of naval assets would the Chinese have to ensure offensive capabilities in 2 or more theaters around the globe? Since the Western world is isolationist and is against any exportation of arms, China would only have the most advanced real world Russian or indigenous technology to work with.

Click to expand...

USN planned for 2 theatres, because the US is flanked by 2 oceans. China is only flanked by the Pacific. In the realm of alternate reality, where PRC and USSR remain allies and the US takes the position of a neutral economic superpower, the Soviets and Chinese can only look to regional "medium powers" as potential rivals in a naval build-up. The USN, even in isolation policy, wouldn't be a small fleet.

For the fictional reality, here's how I'd rate the naval powers, in terms of carrier deployement:

Category I: USSR, UK, France, China, & possibly the US Navy (neutral)
Category II: Spain, India, Japan, Germany
Category III: Italy, S. Korea, Brazil, Canada, Argentina, Australia, etc.

Now let's look at a fictional time-line:


1950s-1960s:
US and UK drastically reduce navy size post-WW2
US declares neutrality (and/or adopt isolationist policy) and retains several Midway and Essex class carriers, but doesn't build the Forrestal-class carriers from our time-line
UK sells/transfers many light carriers from the RN to commonwealth states

1970s:
Catetory I: USSR builds 4 x 40,000 ton Kiev class, France: 2 x 30,000 ton carriers, UK: 2 x old 60,000 ton carriers + new light "sea control" carriers building. USSR attempts to export Moska class to China without success.
Category II & III: Some are now operating 12,000-20,000 ton class carriers.

1980s:
Category I: USSR building 2 x 60,000 ton Admiral Kuznetsov class carrier, France builds 40,000 ton nuclear-powered carrier, England builds several light carriers, China license-build 4 x Kiev-class.
Category II & III: Some are now building 10,000-20,000 ton amphibious assault ships.

1990s:
Fall of the Soviet Union, Russian navy suffers drastic decline. The 2 Kuznetsov class carriers are split 1-1 between new Russian and Ukrainian Navies.
Category I: USSR started on the 80,000 ton carrier but sits incomplete in Ukraine shipyard after fall of Soviet Union. Royal navy finally retires their old 60,000 ton carriers and plans to build a pair of new Queen Elizabeth class (also 60,000 tons), but budgetary constraints and fall of USSR pushed the construction to 2000's. China license builds 2 x Admiral Kuznetsov class carriers. The USN plans several 60,000 ton class carriers to replace its old carriers.
Category II: Some category II powers are now building 20,000-30,000 ton carriers. India plans to purchase Kiev-class carrier from Russia, refitted for fixed-wing aircraft.
Category III: New 10,000-20,000 ton carriers based on European designs.

2000's:
Category I: Russian navy in slow recovery. China buys run-down Kuznetsov class carrier from Ukraine and the incomplete 80,000 ton Ulyanovsk hulk at fire-sale prices. France announces new 80,000 ton "PA2" super-carrier plan. The USN is now operating a fleet of new 60,000-70,000 ton class carriers.
Category II: Spain, Japan, India, etc. announces plans for new 30,000-40,000 ton carriers.

2008: Present day in alternate reality.
Russian navy is recovering and announces plan to build new 60,000-ton class carrier. The Chinese navy has refit the ex-Ukranian Kuznetsov-class carrier, as well as the 4 old Kiev-class aviation cruisers. The Kiev class are now helicpter aviation cruisers. The Ulyanovsk hulk continues to sit in Chinese por for years with only a fresh coat of paint. Chinese military discussion forums had previously claimed that it'd be made operational by 2008 Olympics, which has been proven untrue. Internet military fans build web site titled "The Mystery of the Hapless Ulyanovsk" displaying various photos and speculations, such as the carrier will be used for training purposes.

:rofl:


==========

What would the Chinese navy look like in 2008 of this alternate reality?

Assuming the North, East, and South Sea fleet organizations remain, the North Sea Fleet would be given higher priority with newer ships due to regional rivals (Korea, Japan) to the north instead of Taiwan to the East. Each fleet would have the following, at minimum:

* 1 admiral Kutzenov class aircraft carrier
* 1 refit Kiev-class helicopter cruiser
* 1-2 amphibious assault ship
* 1-2 LPD's
* 8 destroyers
* 8 frigates
* large fleet of light frigates and corvettes for patrol
* assorted nuclear-powered and conventional submarines


Without the Sino-Soviet split, I'd speculate that the Chinese navy would continue to use Soviet ships and not follow German MEKO style designs from 1990s. Thus, the fleet in this time line would consists of mostly Soviet-era designed ships from 1980's era, mixed with domestically built designs from late 1990's onward.

For the destroyer fleet, we'd see a mix of Sovremenny, Udaloy, and 05X destroyer classes. For frigates, mix of Krivak class and 05X frigate classes. The first "domestic" designs would borrow heavily from licensed Russian technology and probably resemble some of Indian Navy's ships today (Delhi, Talwar), then gradually replaced with more domestic design/technology by early 2000's.

Thread moved..Because this is a "What if?" scenario

bd popeye super moderator

proelite said:

lets Suppose That America Became Extremely Isolationist After Wwii Like She Did After Wwi. China Joined The Soviet Union In 1955 And Major Soviet Branches Of Aircraft, Naval, And Land Warfare Production Were Shifted To China. The Soviet Union Disintegrate In 1991 As The Result Of Economic And Political Reforms That Brought Forth The Long Fragmentations Caused By Culture, Ideology, And Distance Between The Soviet States. China Along With Russia Are The Main Successor States. China Quickly Rebounded From The Economic Depression After Because Of The Economic And Democratic Reforms And Resumed The Role Of The World's Sole Military Super Power. (united States Is The Economic Super Power.)

What Kind Of Naval Assets Would The Chinese Have To Ensure Offensive Capabilities In 2 Or More Theaters Around The Globe? Since The Western World Is Isolationist And Is Against Any Exportation Of Arms, China Would Only Have The Most Advanced Real World Russian Or Indigenous Technology To Work With.

My Ideal Superpower Fleet Would Consists Of:
Eight 100,000 Ton Nuclear Supercarrier That's An Enlarged Ul'yanovsk.

Twelve 50,000 Ton Sea Control Ships With Ski Jump Bow, Conventional Powered.

Six 25,000 Ton Nuclear Battle Cruiser In The Likes Of Kirov Designed As A Proto-arsenal Ship To Add Overwhelming Firepower To Any Battle Group.

Twenty 10,000-15,000 Ton Conventional Cruisers That's Enlarged Versions Of The 052 Class. These Ships Are Perfect For Lone Wolf Operations Around The Globe.

Eighty 5000-7,500 Ton Aegis Destroyers In The Likes Of The New 051 And 052 Classes. They're Escorts For The Carriers And Provide Aa Defense And Also Defense Against Submarines.

200+ Frigates
500+ Corvettes, Patrol Boasts, Missile Boats, Pt Boats, Coast Guard Boast....


Twenty 50,000 Ton Lpds Capable Of Landing A Division Of Troops.

Ten 50,000 Ton Lhd/lha/etc Capable Of Landing A Marine Brigade Of 6,000 Troops And Their Equipment.

Over 100 Fleet Axillary Ships Such As Minesweepers, Hospital Ships, Logistic Ships, Replenishment Ships, Etc

12 Nuclear Ssbn
50 Nuclear Ssn
100 Diesel Submarines

They'll Have A Total Of 1,000,000 Marines, And Some 10,000 Navy Airforce Planes.

Click to expand...

don't Loose Time On Fantastic Scenarios But Concentrate On The Very Reality Cause It's Non Profit.this Forum Is Intended To Asses And Analyze Current Military Balance And Future Perspectives.it's Crazy.i Can Open A Forum Like This:let's Assume That Bulgaria Is Twenty Times Bigger Than It Really Is.what Will Be If She Attacks Zimbabwe And So On........are You Serious.

No need to use that large text in this forum.

bd popeye super moderator

juli.mafia said:

don't Loose Time On Fantastic Scenarios But Concentrate On The Very Reality Cause It's Non Profit.this Forum Is Intended To Asses And Analyze Current Military Balance And Future Perspectives.it's Crazy.i Can Open A Forum Like This:let's Assume That Bulgaria Is Twenty Times Bigger Than It Really Is.what Will Be If She Attacks Zimbabwe And So On........are You Serious

Click to expand...

It's not a what if scenario but more of a setting to imagine what a soviet style blue water fleet would look like. However, I agree this type of discussion is somewhat pointless albeit interesting.

juli.mafia said:

this Forum Is Intended To Asses........are You Serious

Click to expand...

I'm sure you meant assess...or was asses a freudian slip? LOL!

I got some alternative universes of my own:

#1 What if the USSR never dissolved? What will be the 2008 Soviet Navy then?

#2 What if China never became the PRC but remained as the ROC? What will be the 2008 ROCN then?

crobato said:

I got some alternative universes of my own:

#1 What if the USSR never dissolved? What will be the 2008 Soviet Navy then?

#2 What if China never became the PRC but remained as the ROC? What will be the 2008 ROCN then?

Click to expand...

I find interesting to answer your questions:

#1, If the USSR never dissolved, all Russian people will go begging!

#2, If China was still ROC, the 2008 ROCN will be something similar to Qing Dynasty's navy (Please search for 1st Sino-Japan war). Because Chiang only care about the four major families rather than China.