I wanted to comment on a post/Rant made by
@Mohsin77 in another thread however it seemed to be inappropriate to that venue. Far more so here given the last reports and context.
RANT ON:
But has the US gotten any real returns on its (many) SOF investments?
I read a paper in a Canadian Army journal some years back that analyzed this issue, and it really changed my opinion on SOFs, and special operations, in general. The Regular Armies of the world have never liked the concept of 'SOF', and with good reason. The main concern of 'big army' has always been the same: SOFs drain the best soldiers from the infantry (thereby reducing the effectiveness of infantry units) and pool them into these 'special' units that are so tiny that they can't really do anything truly important by themselves.
I suspect all this focus on SOF will go away, once the military history of the early 21st century is written. Then the analysts will say the same thing they said post-WWII: SOFs don't work, because they've never worked to produce any decisive result in military history. This is why SOFs were mostly disbanded after WWII. But grunt politics brought them back for Vietnam, where they failed again. Despite all the tactical successes of MACV-SOG, it made zero difference strategically. Yet, SOF was back again for the 'war on terror,' and this time put in the driver's seat, only to completely fail again to provide any decisive result.
Air Forces, Armored Divisions and Navies win wars, not 'special operators' running around playing cops and robbers. If you can't win with your regular infantry, special operators aren't going to save you. And if your mission is so super-specialized that it can only be done by ninjas, then it probably isn't worth worrying about anyway, in the grand scheme of things.
Now you may think this is all just 'big army' bias, but here's something I heard from a DELTA operator (John C 'Shrek'): He said on his podcast that the only thing that would've won Afghanistan is if the US put a million infantry boots on the ground, from the start. And he was on the ground, in Tora Bora, and also all over Iraq. I've heard similar assessments from SEALs as well. Jacko realized this during the Ramadi operation, that it was a lost cause. So if even SOF guys are saying that special operations don't win wars, maybe that's a hint that worrying about what a PLA recon team would do versus Indian patrols, isn't really worth anything. As for all the former SOF youtubers making kit-videos, they are fun to watch if you're into kit and gear (which I am), but it has no real relevance if you actually want to win a war.
RANT OFF.
I don’t think that SF vs non SF would have made a difference in Afghanistan or Iraq @Moshin.
The key issues that have played as current situation developed in both have less to do with actual on the ground combat and more to do with the Political realities on the ground. Remember the Russians were in Afghanistan to with Armored divisions although no one has tried to deploy their Navy to Afghanistan... perhaps there is a reason why? I kid.
On the ground the nation has no nationality. Both Iraq and Afghanistan are tribal clans who happen to reside in a set of drawn boarders. The Dictatorship in Iraq held it together. The fact that one of these sects had all the guns, airplanes and tanks kept the others in line.
In Afghanistan it was and remains in many ways a different story. After the King was deposed and then the Saur Revolution deposed them, Typical land reform schemes like those seen in China and Russia were to be implemented. However the rural populations had no interest then or now in that. So they started fighting back. The Soviets joined in to back the Socialists and the war was on. Since the. The nation hasn’t existed in any real way. The The Socialist government reigned but it’s reign like the current Afghanistan government is disputable it fell and the Taliban took over... to a point. Because the population was happy to go along and get along so long as it was understood that it was t Kabul in charge really it was the local chieftain.
Boots on the ground might have won battles like Tora Bora however the critical factors would still have been lacking. Infrastructure, stability and leadership.
You can work to build what the locals want but not what they don’t. You can’t change what they won’t change and you have to have clear guidelines of objectives. Afghanistan’s infrastructures weren’t there. Even the Taliban never had total control. They were always fighting each other. The war lords were always more in control at the local level.
Corruption was always rampant and the leadership in country was more self interested well the leadership in Washington was alway less interested. The. You factor in so called allies And self denial. The Pakistani Intelligence service and government have been happy to use militants in the region as a cudgel to destabilize potential rivals.
We know they were in bed with the Taliban pre 9/11 with a strong case for post 9/11 to this day.
The Taliban when stressed ran to Pakistan and Pakistan aided them and Al Qaida. They operate under this fiction of good Taliban and bad Taliban. Good Taliban they support those being the ones who fight against Indian or Kabul the bad being those who turn on Islamabad and Rawalpindi. However they are One and the same shifting back and forth with the tides, the US rooted it’s self to Pakistan as the regional ally in hopes that they would assist in stability.https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/01/05/why-pakistan-supports-terrorist-groups-and-why-the-us-finds-it-so-hard-to-induce-change/
The US did the same with Iran in both Afghanistan and Iraq despite the long running grudge between the US and the Islamic republic of Iran.
However this in both cases proved a Faustian bargain. Appeasements of Pakistan created safe zones where in Taliban forces could attack from and retreat to without fear of retaliation.
Iran took advantage of the situation by supplying arms and IED technology to the forces the US ended up fighting.
These factors would have remained unchanged had the US employed Millions of SF forces or Armored divisions. This also factors to Leadership.
the Past Administrations and current one didn’t want to or know how to stabilize the nations in question. They went to their military commanders yet they to Like in Vietnam could win the battles, they couldn’t win the peace. Although The US has taken loses they took fewer than their foes. In terms of combat effectiveness the US reigns but interims of establishing stability it’s an epic disaster.
When they realize the Leadership realize the trap they have created they knee jerk to jump out. looking to save face well digging a new hole. This is the Withdrawal agreement. Which leaves no protections for the Kabul government and survives simply because the Administration is in denial and willing to happily listen to lies. Those lies being
1) that the Taliban will talk with the Kabul government.
2) That the Taliban will fight AQ
3) The Taliban deal will prevent the reset of Afghanistan to a terrorist safe havens and training camps.
Basically it didn’t matter if SOF or Conventional.