whether they can get the suppliers to deliver that many sets of parts is a different story, but in terms of just assembly wise, the current production level is no where near what could be produced.
Aeroplane procurement rates
- Thread starter Totoro
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The latest from Mr. Fisher, which includes estimates for J-10 now (100 plus) and other stuff like JH-7/A (100 plus too).
He got five regiments of J-8F/H and 120 in number, same around as I said in the AFM and CDF forums.
He got five regiments of J-8F/H and 120 in number, same around as I said in the AFM and CDF forums.
I don't like strategycenter at all, it exagerates like no other. Sometime in 2005, one of their articles claimed the PLAN already had 3 Type 93 SSBNs, which is BS.
I am willing to believe that there are more than 100 J-10, because I read reports that production had hit 100 early last year. Nevertheless, the paper does not take into account several developments, including the cancellation of the Zubr deal.
Is that picture of the 94 SSBM for real? It looks A LOT like the 92.
Chengdu J-10
Junior Member
Hmm...thought that the PLAAF had 300+ Su-27/30 & J-11A/B
Its really hard to compute the J-8II and J-7 numbers. That's why we only have estimates based on a sustained average production rate.
Anyway, I expect the J-8II to be a lot more, assuming we count only the revised airframe (note the tip of the rudder, the green does not extend all the way up). There is probably at least six regiments of the J-8D (probably 180 aircraft), and now plus four regiments of the J-8F (around 120 aircraft), there should be at least 300 of the J-8D/F/H models.
Anyway, I expect the J-8II to be a lot more, assuming we count only the revised airframe (note the tip of the rudder, the green does not extend all the way up). There is probably at least six regiments of the J-8D (probably 180 aircraft), and now plus four regiments of the J-8F (around 120 aircraft), there should be at least 300 of the J-8D/F/H models.
With D models being equipped with pl-11? That'd make 300 for BVR capable planes... That's another big thing happening with air forces in the last 10-15 years. From zero BVR combat planes they've went up to over 700, making it over a third of their entire combat plane inventory. At this pace, by 2015 that should increase to some 1300 units, or nearly two thirds of the total number.
Not just D models, but some B models are upgraded to the D standard. This means upgrades on the radar, either an updated Type 208 (SR-8?) or KLJ-1 radar. Because of upgrades, its hard to tell where the real Ds begin and where the converted Bs stop. Hard to say if all the regiments are made of new Ds, and they could have mixed upgraded Bs too into the same regiment. These upgraded Bs are also capable of air to air refueling. The only way you can tell the upgraded Bs and the true Ds apart is from the top edge of the tail fin.
Some of these Ds in turn are upgraded to the F standard, and repainted into the same color (grey) but you can still identify them from the true F model because the upgraded Ds don't have double wing fences.
If one realizes the potential of the JH-7A for BVR as well, that's quite a fleet, and even more so if active radar guiding BVR is considered. A J-8D that is upgraded to an F standard using PL-12s can be a major threat to any F-16 out there.
Actually SARH remains credible today. Look at all the excellent SAMs using that principle, like the Standards, the ESSM and the S-300s.
Though we don't know how exactly a PL-11B would perform, assuming you use an old AIM-7M as a baseline, that's still quite a potential threat. Of course, ARH is preferable, but still that is no excuse not to discount that SARH is still a threat.