China will go full steam ahead, regardless of any sanctions. However, It is only fair to have all embargoes and sanctions removed immediately.
A reappraisal of China's semiconductor strategy
- Thread starter ZeEa5KPul
- Start date
- Status
China will go full steam ahead, regardless of any sanctions. However, It is only fair to have all embargoes and sanctions removed immediately.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
No, it's not. If Google puts Android back in, Huawei's drive loses steam and Ark/Oak will have a lot of trouble in the EU because people will prefer the Android version they are familiar with. Only by making it so that if they want Huawei's fantastic capabilities, they must make the small leap of faith to Ark/Oak will they do so, and then if Huawei did a great job like it always does, they will love it and never look back to Android again. That's when it's too late for the US to reverse ban. There is no full steam ahead if there is no market for it or if the market is cut in half. Right now all Chinese tech companies distrust the US and expect to push US tech out of the Chinese market before they suffer a US ban. Reversing this takes out a lot of the excitement that Chinese parts will finally corner the Chinese market, the largest market in the world. The market is most important. Development of domestic alternatives may continue but they will be at backup tire speed and may fall back into that position again if the US makes all its parts readily available once more. This ban is a blessing that China cannot give the US any excuse to remove. If Trump's too friendly and starts telling Xi he'll do him a solid out of good will, Xi needs to spit in his eye or something, but this ban must be preserved.
I don't know why you like fairness so much; I never want it. Everyone is born different and everyone has his own advantages; to me, fairness doesn't exist anywhere in the world. My goal is always to use my advantage to defeat my rivals while preventing them from using their advantages against me; I never try to make things "fair." Seek substance, not face value. Don't go lock horns with Trump; exploit his weaknesses, his mistakes caused by his rashness and false bravado, and use them to do him in.
Last edited:
i think China can start to offer enhanced enhanced IP protections and the remove the tech transfer requirements that Trump complains about.
After all, the Chinese government and Chinese companies have had their sputnik moment now.
So to ensure they aren't dependent on US technology, there's going to be a huge increase in Chinese R&D spending (and global patents)
And they'll keep developing until Chinese alternatives are better than the US equivalents.
The base patents for x86-64 probably have expired, but new patents keep being issued all the time for architecture extensions (like AVX), efficient ways to implement the architecture, or bus standards and things like that. Of course, if it is to make something for the Chinese state they can simply ignore the patents.
For supercomputers the ISA is not particularly relevant as scientists typically have the source code of the programs they run. China has its own supercomputer CPUs. The problem is more for the commercial sector like Internet service companies. I think that China needs to use more their own server processors, just like Huawei does with their ARM server chip.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
The driving force is the market. Without a market to sell to, there's no capital to prop up R&D. Government funding, iron bowl style, is a minuscule driving force compared to the revenue from a huge market. "No deal" means that will continue to be a barrier to US tech trying to take chunks of the Chinese market away from Chinese companies trying to start things up. We need that barrier to keep China's market for China's parts. We need a "no deal." We need to give Trump no excuse to back off and call it a deal.
No, in a lot of sectors it is still too early to do that. Besides, licensing requirements happen all the time even outside China.
The other company is not forced to join the deal. They do it because they consider it profitable for them.
China needs to erect enough trade barriers to ensure their own market can grow while still maintaining competition from outside products to force the internal companies to keep up.
Only once the internal market is strong enough can the market be opened up further to the outside.
If Huawei has access to Google again, I think Huawei should use it for overseas device sales (such as in Europe).
Ark OS just isn't ready to compete with Samsung Android at this time.
Given the development timescale, I reckon the current devices have largely completed development and integration with the Google Android anyway.
But Ark OS still goes full steam ahead in China, as it doesn't have to compete against Google Android Services in China.
Then when there is a large enough Ark OS ecosystem (and adoption by other phone manufacturers?), it would be time to launch Ark OS globally.
It's Huawei and all the other technologies companies providing a market and funding, from their commercial revenues.
All those companies know that if they become successful, it's only a matter of time they get slapped with US sanctions.
They can't afford to take that risk
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
No, having Huawei phones sold with both HongMeng and Android is a non starter. Too many people, both in China and worldwide will go for the Android because they know exactly what they're getting. It will be harder to build the ecosystem and it will also be harder to get feedback and find problems with it for improvement. Ark isn't every going to just be ready to take on Samsung with Android out of nowhere; it needs to start low, then grow by costumers raving about it like all Huawei phones did. Plus, we are doing this now, not several years later. Getting something done earlier is worth some extra roughness to the execution because that's an earlier start on success. Time is valuable.
Once again, we've already starting this endeavor now, and it's finally working. After all these years, China finally got its market and companies have the proper incentive and environment to finally develop these own components; why would you want to disturb that for another way, one that's basically a theory for how China might be able to achieve the same? We've all seen companies get lazy and taken by immediate profits; I really don't think there is need to test your hypothesis and I really don't want to put any more Chinese money invested into American tech.
I just don't understand at all why you'd want to give Trump a deal so he could flood China's market with US tech again. I can see no good to that at all except perhaps some short-term comfort. Even if a trade deal was made, Xi should insist that tech is a national security issue and that be separate and the ban preserved.
- Status