29 Chinese taken hostage in the Sudan! What will China do?
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
plawolf
Lieutenant General
From the tone of the rebels, it does not seem like they hold much if any ill-will towards the Chinese workers. They were most likely taken for ransom.
At present, there is no need or reason for the PLA to get involved. China has a lot of people in Sudan and Africa, and a heavy-handed special forces raid will actually give the rebels a reason to want to go and harm some Chinese when they have none at present. That is something that Beijing will take into account when deciding on their best course of action, as well as China's old non-interference policy.
All of this means that China's best bet is to reply on diplomacy to get it's people back.
However, if the Sudanese army launches a botched rescue bid and Chinese hostages are killed, or if the rebels start kill hostages to make a point, the military option may well be exercised.
It will be interesting to see if the PLAN diverts any of the ships currently on anti-piracy operations to the Sudan to give Beijing a ready military options if they decide they need one.
Although I would expect any such re-deployment to be done quietly, so don't hold your breathe hoping to hear about it on the news.
At present, there is no need or reason for the PLA to get involved. China has a lot of people in Sudan and Africa, and a heavy-handed special forces raid will actually give the rebels a reason to want to go and harm some Chinese when they have none at present. That is something that Beijing will take into account when deciding on their best course of action, as well as China's old non-interference policy.
All of this means that China's best bet is to reply on diplomacy to get it's people back.
However, if the Sudanese army launches a botched rescue bid and Chinese hostages are killed, or if the rebels start kill hostages to make a point, the military option may well be exercised.
It will be interesting to see if the PLAN diverts any of the ships currently on anti-piracy operations to the Sudan to give Beijing a ready military options if they decide they need one.
Although I would expect any such re-deployment to be done quietly, so don't hold your breathe hoping to hear about it on the news.
Kurt
Junior Member
Why did the rebels bother to take Chinese hostages at all? Has this to do with Chinese oil interests that are at the heart of Sudanese powerplay? It's me guessing, but Chinese hostage taking could be a sign that the rebels want a contract to settle the fight with Khartoum and Chinese foreign interests are the pressure point to a solution. The problem is, can China broker a solution, paying money will not solve the issue, or will the fight and kidnapping escalate? Because there are many Chinese in Africa and many ongoing conflicts, the isssue will be closely watched and can have massive repercussions.
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cn_habs
Junior Member
It's in the Sudanese government's interests to negotiate or pay the rebels off instead of using force in a risky rescue operation. Given the possibility of a soft landing in China in 2012, losing 29 nationals would make the CCP lose face and look highly incompetent to its own people.
I'm guessing it's the security reasons Lodi mentioned, these workers would have seen their faces, their tactics, their equipment, etc.
When you rob a bank, you'd want to do something about the people who saw your face, it's the same idea here.
Mr T
Senior Member
It could be for ransom. At the least Chinese are non-African foreigners and therefore considered rich. Or possibly the money China has spent in Africa in past years has convinced some people that its a rich country. The hostage takers will probably expect China to pay to return the hostages - millions of dollars at the least.
Or they could have been taken to protect them against attack by government forces (human shields), at least for the moment.
If a ransom is paid, I have a feeling China will have to stump up the money secretly.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Seems like utter chaos down there, with 14 out of the 29 rescued, and now suggestions that maybe up to 70 were captured originally.
The differing stories about how the Chinese workers came to be captured also looks interesting.
If the rebels were deliberately targeting the Chinese for political or idealogical reasons, then there would be no need for them to go saying that the Chinese were caught in the crossfire when they attacked a government military unit.
The Chinese also have no reason to lie about the workers' compound being attacked.
That means that either the rebels attacked the Chinese compound thinking it was an army base, which is extremely unlikely, or that they were thinking of taking the Chinese hostages for ransome, but didn't want to do so openly for fear of that damaging their political aims by them being labeled as common criminals.
Kurt
Junior Member
The SPLM has successfully liberated the Southern Sudan and has a share in the oil exploitation as well as great gold resources with the money used for building up their armed forces, administration and economy. Part of the discussion about a split between north and south Sudan was about a renewed civil war between the Christian south and the Muslim north. Another component was racism with many northeners refering to themselves as Arabs(despite looking very African) and to people they considered black Africans as slaves. This dividing line between Arabs and slaves is not only the Muslim/Christian divide, but encludes also black Muslims that are considered slaves. Darfur is a prime example of such people that do neither belong to the Christian South, nor to the Arabic North. The now extreme SPLM sucess in the south after decades of desperate fighting has spurred armed resistance groups in these regions to also claim their independance and share of oil. The most likely sources of weapons for them were the enemies of the Muslim Arabic North, especially the Christian South that by kindling another fire in Sudan would be able to make their own position much safer, as well as Chad, Egypt and Lybia who all have their petty disputes with Sudan and finally the big player US that doesn't particularly like the Sudanese government and helped the original SPLA/M (despite that it was another Red Army). The chosen title SPLM/A-North makes it very clear that they want to achieve something similar to the SPLM/A in the South and you can look at it as an act of self-defense because the lack of money that kills people by means other than war.
Kind of strange world if the Red Army would be fighting the Red Army in case China intervened military.
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