2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

mat

New Member
Registered Member
- It is also not a bad deal for the US because it seems to avoid the Hormuz tolls (at least for 60 days, but I think the Iranians are willing to let that one go) and as long as the US doesn't pay any of the $300 billion. It is basically sanctions relief for nuclear talks. Something Trump should have agreed to a long time ago.

- The fact that JD vance is out there selling it to the conservative media as a grad bargain also tells me they might really be serious about making a deal this time (or they are just throwing JD under the bus lol). I still believe Israel and it's allies will succeed in wrecking the deal. Lindsey Graham is getting behind the deal because as they say "you have to get behind someone to stab them in the back."

- The problem for Iran is once oil starts flowing the pressure on Trump is off. But the goodies they are getting upfront like their frozen cash and sanctions relief might make it worth it. I still am very doubtful.

- The Iranians also have to watch out for the regarded EU cucks. They have this idea of patrolling the straight when the conflict stops. Iran is counting on being able to shut down the straight if the US and Israel play foul. The Europeans might complicate this calculation.
 

GiantCanofWater

Junior Member
Registered Member
It’s everything iran can ask for basically. It’s the best choice America really has in this situation. Face humiliation but get to save more weapon stock, and have more time to produce them. Helps the world economy. Otherwise they spend hundreds of billions more dollars fighting Iran anyways and depleting their stocks even more while cooking the world economy. As well as facing political upheaval if boots get put on the ground. They can’t afford to be stuck in another forever war
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
This is totally true. As a matter of fact, Trump immediately dismissed Pavlavi's offer to go back to Iran to rule. Even Trump knows that everybody hates him; Pavlavi shouldn't even dare accept if Trump offered him cus he's going to be killed sooner later. An ousted leader who supported the bombing of his own country is not going to survive there.
Voices in Iran call for an aligning with China (for the xth time)

China's not going to like that. We like one-on-one talks and we will support Iran, but China's strategic ambiguity is for draining the EU and US while pretending to be friendly, or at least not a direct enemy. Openly declared blocs is going to F that up.
 

temporary1

New Member
Registered Member
China's not going to like that. We like one-on-one talks and we will support Iran, but China's strategic ambiguity is for draining the EU and US while pretending to be friendly, or at least not a direct enemy. Openly declared blocs is going to F that up.
I think that's their internal political and policy making process. They got to talk to, influence each other and then reach a common acceptable position.

While doing that, and also involving and influencing public opinion, they will have to talk plainly and say things as they are.

I expect though when they reach a unified position across all political spectrums that their foreign ministry and other officials will start talking in the usual diplomacy speech and adopt Chinese talking points and language (e.g. "community with a shared future for humanity") to show their stance
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
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