2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

ChineseToTheBone

New Member
Registered Member
Raisina Dialogue 2026 occurred earlier this year back in March, where one advisor to Modi said to journalist David Rennie of The Economist of how India will soon be forced to mass buy green tech produced by China. (47:00 Mark)


55% of the Indian oil and gas is delivered via the Strait of Hormuz, so this outcome was very predictable and of course a boon for Chinese solar panel manufacturers.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
A very interesting piece published by Javan, a newspaper closely associated with conservative and IRGC-linked circles in Iran, argues that many Iranian intellectuals and reformists still view China through an excessively Westernized lens and remain psychologically unable to accept the emergence of a non-Western center of global power.
《日报》发表了一篇非常有趣的文章,该报与伊朗保守派及革命卫队相关圈子关系密切,指出许多伊朗知识分子和改革派仍通过过度西化的视角看待中国,心理上仍无法接受非西方全球权力中心的出现。

- What makes the article notable is that it is not really about China alone. It reflects a much broader post-war shift inside parts of the Iranian establishment.
- 这篇文章值得注意的是,它并不只是关于中国。这反映了战后伊朗建制内部更广泛的转变。

- The underlying message is essentially this: the old assumption that the West is the natural center of the world is collapsing, while many Iranian elites are mentally still stuck inside that framework.
- 其基本信息是:西方是世界自然中心的旧假设正在崩溃,而许多伊朗精英在心理上仍困于这一框架内。

- The piece openly revives the old Islamic Republic theme of gharbzadegi (“westoxication”), but updates it for the multipolar era. The argument is no longer simply that the West is morally decadent, but that continuing to think exclusively in Western terms means misunderstanding where global economic and strategic power is moving.
- 该作品公开复兴了伊斯兰共和国旧主题“gharbzadegi”(“westoxication”),但为多极时代进行了更新。论点不再仅仅是西方道德堕落,而是继续仅用西方思维意味着误解全球经济和战略力量的流动方向。

- This is also deeply connected to the post-war environment. Tehran increasingly sees Europe as strategically irrelevant, the United States as structurally hostile, and China as economically indispensable. In that context, articles like this also serve a domestic political function: preparing Iranian public opinion for a future in which the country becomes far more integrated with Asian economic and geopolitical structures.
- 这也与战后环境密切相关。德黑兰越来越认为欧洲在战略上无关紧要,美国在结构上具有敌意,而中国则在经济上不可或缺。在这样的背景下,类似文章也具有国内政治功能:为伊朗公众舆论做好准备,让国家未来更加融入亚洲经济和地缘政治结构。

- In my view the most interesting part is probably psychological. Many Iranians genuinely admire Western technology, universities, lifestyle and culture in ways that do not naturally extend to China or Russia. The article directly attacks that mindset and presents it almost as a civilizational bias rather than a rational geopolitical assessment.
- 在我看来,最有趣的部分可能是心理层面的。许多伊朗人真心钦佩西方的技术、大学、生活方式和文化,这种敬仰并不自然地延伸到中国或俄罗斯。文章直接攻击这种思维方式,几乎将其呈现为文明偏见,而非理性的地缘政治评估。

- This is why the tone feels much deeper than a simple pro-China editorial. It reads more like an attempt to redefine Iran’s intellectual and geopolitical identity for a post-Western order.
- 这就是为什么语气比单纯的亲中社论更深刻。这更像是试图重新定义伊朗在后西方秩序中的知识和地缘政治身份。

- What we may be witnessing is the gradual emergence of “Islamic Republic 3.0.”
- 我们可能正在目睹“伊斯兰共和国3.0”的逐步出现。

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The Iranian intellectuals' confrontation and hostility towards even "a reasonable and balanced cooperation" between Iran and China has been one of the darkest parts of their dark minds for at least the past two decades. Look at the pages of reformist newspapers during their lifetime to see what completely unreasonable and incomprehensible hatred they displayed for China. The Iranian intellectual accepts the West wholeheartedly, without criticism, and from the depths of his soul, but he does not digest Eastern civilization - from Iranian civilization itself to Chinese civilization. Both for almost the same reason! Ancient Iranian civilization, because its historical half is Islamic and not "Western", and Chinese civilization too, because it is Eastern and not Western, even when it is such a source of regret for the West.
The US president attacked Iran with several goals and in the hope of several achievements. One of them was to glare at China after defeating Iran and obtaining Iranian oil. When the four-day war did not end, he postponed the meeting with Xi. When the war had passed seventy days, he finally agreed to the meeting, with folded hands, like a complete loser. When he returned yesterday, he did not get anything from China. The Chinese are not Arab sheikhs affiliated with Zionism who will give him a gold-plated plane worth several hundred million dollars or give their land to the US. On the contrary, news came that Trump has said that he wants to allow the Chinese to buy American farmland and allow 500,000 Chinese students to come to America!
American analysts consider China's silence on most issues related to Iran or China's official position in not accepting America's anti-Iran demands to be significant. American journalists wrote about Xi's office staff welcoming Trump at the airport and his even colder send-off that "it became clear who the superpower is"!
In his joint speech with Trump, Xi first made a dry compliment and then trampled on America. He compared 1.4 billion Chinese to 300 million Americans, and China’s 5,000-year-old civilization to the 250th anniversary of America’s “independence.” Finally, he said that the Chinese people were “modernizing in a high-quality way” and that the American people were looking for jobs! “We are advancing China’s modernization in all areas through high-quality development, and 300 million American people are reviving the spirit of patriotism, innovation, and entrepreneurship.”
Understanding why America is in decline is not a matter of sloganeering by the likes of me and us. The raw, unbiased data shows that in 1990, America was the leading exporter to 175 of the world’s 195 countries, a reach that is virtually unrivaled. In the same year, China was the leading exporter to only eight countries! In 2000, America was the leading exporter to 155 countries, and China was the leading exporter to 15 countries. In 2010, China was the leading exporter to 55 countries, compared to America’s leading exporter to 85 countries; and by 2024, there will be another complete reversal, with China becoming the leading exporter to 125 countries, and America to just 35 countries! America’s power in trade influence, the backbone of its soft and hard hegemony, is rapidly eroding, while China has woven a web of economic dependencies around the world in less than a generation.
Iranian intellectuals sometimes turn left and sometimes right, depending on their personal tastes and interests! With this spirit, they have an ideological view of the new economic reality of the world. If America becomes a country of the 99 percent against the 1 percent, how good! And if China speeds up the train of speed and progress for the majority of its people and brings the poverty and hunger of a few decades ago to a modern state whose quality is a source of regret for Europe and America, it is Eastern tyranny or new imperialism!
China has, in fact, acted even ahead of many traditional allies in key strategic positions for Iran’s national interests. I personally heard the reformist Foreign Minister of the 12th government tell an aggressive Chinese official, “If it weren’t for China, our resistance would have collapsed!” I have said before that our resistance will not collapse with anything and that is due to Iran’s independence, which is not even completely dependent on China, but that Foreign Minister had to say this in order to better understand that anti-Chinese person.
If the Iranian intellectual is more concerned about national interests, the country's independence, and reducing dependence on the world - East and West - than anything else, he will have to rethink his anti-China stance. Looking at it with previous Western judgments puts Iran in a position to miss the train that its neighbors and many countries in the world have boarded; neighbors who themselves have signed a thirty-year agreement with China!
China undoubtedly has its flaws and political and social costs, but the era of “either America or China” is over. Yes, you cannot be “Westernized” with China! Throw that reprehensible and ideological Westernization into the dustbin of history. The world is moving towards multipolar and multilayered networks; and whoever locks himself in one of these poles in advance is a loser. By winning the third war, Iran has disrupted the frozen world order in your mind. If you are not thinking of yourself, think of your children, who will soon find nothing in America with which to revive the sense of Westernization of their fathers!
| Edito

Kinda ironic that Iranian mental liberation from effective western thought colonisation is only happening now due to USIS massacring the bulk of the most powerful western obsessed useful idiots in Iran’s government during peace talks, and the general populace getting collective red pilled by USIS direct attacks and how the collective western world reacted to that unprovoked, premeditated and dastardly attack on Iran.

Nothing can undo decades of western propaganda and brainwashing about the ‘superiority’ of western morals and values than American bombs falling on your cities and the collective west calls you, the victim of the attacks, the aggressor; or how the collective west who usually couldn’t shut up about human rights didn’t even let out a fart about schools full of children being deliberately bombed to oblivion.
 

Africablack

Junior Member
Registered Member
It is inconsitent and i wont deny it. But geopolitics, human nature, and history is never entirely beholden by it.

You keep pushing things to be consistent when the world is clearly is never about that.

Do you really want some african state to develop a dirty nuke? Or gulf states to pursue it? Just for the sake of consistency, fact and logic?

I do not entrust my future generations from these state actors. Sorry that I care about my survival more than some el presidente wanting to hold in power.

You can keep arguing with your logic all you want. As I said, logically sound but I would not agree with it because we are human.

North korea was always under prc protection which gave them the time to create it. If not, it would have been attacked while developing a credible strike. No one is going to protect Iran for this. And NK was never attacked when it didnt have the nuke anyways... so your point is moot



.

About existential coercion. Except Iran has demonstrated it that conventional means still has purpose in existential war. This war is existential and they are winning without nukes. Because neither Israel and US has enough guts or craziness to push the button despite they have the most wacked admins.
Yes, I want "some African state" to develop nukes. Contrary to what you are told most of the 54 or so countries on the continent are peaceful and stable and don't have greedy and imperialist ambitions of expansion and exploitation.
 

NorthKimBestKim

New Member
Registered Member
Yes, I want "some African state" to develop nukes. Contrary to what you are told most of the 54 or so countries on the continent are peaceful and stable and don't have greedy and imperialist ambitions of expansion and exploitation.
Algeria should definitely get the nukes. They're a solid friend of Russia and PRC. 70% of weapons purchase is from Russia, and about 20% from PRC.

I see that western articles have started whining about Algeria propping up Russia's air projection throughout Africa and Latin America.

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Having pro-Zio regime at the border (Morocco) and also Imperial NATO close by, is dangerous by itself and should be balanced by nukes.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Is very probable the US-Iran war will restart in the coming days. I think if Trump cannot accomplish, let face it, Netanyahu goals, I think that he could get really desperate, especially with the economic downfall that this war is causing and use tactical nukes in Iran. to push them to comply. He could be the first president since WW2 to use nuclear weapons in a war
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
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HQ-9B is actually in Middle East now, except not on Iran's side but on Saudi Arabia's side curtesy of Pakistan.

Even so, if shooting start again I rather doubt it would make much difference. It's not like HQ-9B was designed to counter massed drones.

If the war goes hot again, will Pakistan join in on offensive action? We might see offensive use of jf-17 after all.

Have you considered the possibility that those Pakistani assets and forces are not there to defend against Iranian attacks?

Its been consistently claimed that many of the most high profile attacks against oil and gas infrastructure targets in many of the gulf states were not undertaken by Iran, but rather by other parties seeking to stir up an inter-Gulf war.

If you were the Saudis and seriously suspects that your supposed allies are actually responsible, would you trust those same ‘allies’ to defend you against these false flag attacks they themselves are launching against you?

Additionally, while the bulk of American hardware and troops have fled their fixed bases and positions, all the Gulf States are still going to be infested with US operatives, agents, local useful idiots and bought out traitors. I think there is a genuine and quite legitimate concern within Gulf ruling circles that they would be assassinated and regime changed, possibly by their own military, if they move to oppose the U.S. too much or openly.

Having 80k Pakistani troops they can count on to be royal to them would be both a massive relief and source of backbone for them. What better pretext to get those troops in without triggering the very coups/uprisings they are meant to help guard against then to claim they are there to defend against the Iranians?
 

_killuminati_

Captain
Registered Member
Having 80k Pakistani troops they can count on to be royal to them would be both a massive relief and source of backbone for them. What better pretext to get those troops in without triggering the very coups/uprisings they are meant to help guard against then to claim they are there to defend against the Iranians?
Last time Arabs contracted such large foreign military / mercenary units for defense, they got couped and subjugated for a thousand years by those very same foreigners (read: Abbasi Arabs with Circassian/Turk armies).

They never really left the subjugation, rather switching their liege from Turk to Europeans to Americans. Looks like the next switch is in the making. 80k is enough for occupation, considering their own army is just 75k.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Last time Arabs contracted such large foreign military / mercenary units for defense, they got couped and subjugated for a thousand years by those very same foreigners (read: Abbasi Arabs with Circassian/Turk armies).

They never really left the subjugation, rather switching their liege from Turk to Europeans to Americans. Looks like the next switch is in the making. 80k is enough for occupation, considering their own army is just 75k.

And just how would you characterise their current arrangement with the Americans?
 

Halcyon66

New Member
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Iran Never Tried to Close the Strait of Hormuz: It Has a Much More Powerful Playbook Ready

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China takes 90% of Iran’s exported crude and routes 45% of its own crude imports through Hormuz. Beijing already has the leverage Washington does not — without sending a single warship to the Gulf.

Regards,
 

_killuminati_

Captain
Registered Member
And just how would you characterise their current arrangement with the Americans?
Of vassals. US has never continuously stationed more than 10k troops in Saudi Arabia.
Just saying, the type of religious sentiment that prevails in Pakistani society does not view the Saudi monarchy as legitimate custodians of the holy sites. And if there are any uprisings, they may arise from Hejaz (the most populous province; has a different ideology, was invaded by the House of Saud which is not Hejazi and forced to implement the Wahhabi ideology which most residents still do not adhere to).

So, who's side would Pakistan really be on if there is such an uprising? Personally, I think, the Saudi dynasty doesn’t have much life left. Especially MBS who has created endless internal enemies even from within his dynasty. I suspect the shit will hit the fan once MBS' father, King Salman, dies (he's already on his deathbed for many years now).
 
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