It's pretty clear that the Iranian strategy is to use the time to build more missiles and drones so that if the US dare enact their strategy, it becomes the biggest military disaster and mass casualty event in US history.
Frankly, Iran doesn’t appear to have this capability. They can hit static targets and targets of opportunity, but they have demonstrated zero ability to hit moving US forces accurately on the ground or in the sea.
The only way Iran could credibly expect to cause anything like the level of combat losses you are suggesting against America is if they do something monumentally stupid. While that can’t be ruled out with Trump, it’s not something you want to bet on if you are the Iranians.
The Iranians’ primary winning strategy is economic and diplomatic. The military aspect is only needed insofar as to keep them in the fight until the economic damage ramps up to deal enough pain and industrial damage to America’s and the west’s economies as to make them unable to continue this war and are forced to sue for terms.
In that respects, this current American blockage suited them just fine, because now they are in the hilarious position of watching America effectively blockade the very neighbouring Gulf allies who’s territory America needs to use to launch attacks against Iran.
If you are Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE, what must you be feeling seeing the Americans turning your tankers and supply ships away and starving you of oil revenues and desperately needed basic supplies? Does that make you want to be more or less involved in future American military misadventures against Iran?
As the dusk clears, it looks like America, or elements within the US military and government who sees the ticking time bomb they are sitting on that Trump seems totally oblivious to, launched a small scale attack against Iranian speedboats trying to restart the war and force Trump’s hand.
The Iranian response seems pre-prepared and hit the UAE where it hurts and where they thought they were safe.
The response from America has been crickets about the UAE and all about trying to keep the ceasefire in place.
That was a calculated move to try to pry the UAE out of America’s corner, and America is actively helping kick them out.
If the UAE still wants to side with America after this, I don’t think anyone in the region or the wider world would blame Iran for annexing them, nor would the Sheiks be missed after they are gone. Hell, Saudi Arabia might even team up with Iran and split the UAE between them at that point.
America’s entire ME foundations are crumbing to dust right before the world’s eyes. If they don’t play some fantastic strategic defensive plays soon, they are going to find themselves actually kicked out of the ME for good.
