2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

GZDRefugee

GZDRefugee

Senior Member
Registered Member
_killuminati_

_killuminati_

Captain
Registered Member
NorthKimBestKim said:
No one cares. What matters is that Afghanistan was robbed of another 20 years of development, even though they were already cratered.

So how much is 20 years of lost development worth? Also, lets not pretend that the U.S. wasn't involved in cratering of Afghanistan pre-2001 as well by supporting Mujahedeen forcing against Soviet forces in order to create maximum damage on Afghanistan by itself.

If you look at what Taliban is today, are you happy how things are going?

That fact that Taliban bows down to Modi-regime and attacks Pakistan? And then Pakistan has to respond, naturally by attacking back.

Yaay, what a "victory for Taliban", indeed.
Click to expand...
US failed all of it's objectives and here you are claiming victory. You sound like Trump.

If US objective was to ravage an already ravaged Afghanistan, then yes, they succeeded. But this wasn't an objective, no matter how much you entertain the idea.
 
_killuminati_

_killuminati_

Captain
Registered Member
GZDRefugee said:
@Puss in Boots @FriedRiceNSpice

Pakistan is escorting its merchant shipping now. Still think China shouldn't?
Click to expand...
I suspect Pakistan has given US some type of concession previously (around Op Sindoor time) that made US favor Pakistan which is otherwise a strange phenomenon because just a decade ago the US was ranting about Pakistani nukes, Pakistan's close ties with China and a known hostility to Israel, as well as Pakistan's shadow network of importing Irani diesel over land.
 
GZDRefugee

GZDRefugee

Senior Member
Registered Member
_killuminati_ said:
I suspect Pakistan has given US some type of concession previously (around Op Sindoor time) that made US favor Pakistan which is otherwise a strange phenomenon because just a decade ago the US was ranting about Pakistani nukes, Pakistan's close ties with China and a known hostility to Israel, as well as Pakistan's shadow network of importing Irani diesel over land.
Click to expand...
That doesn't change the strategic calculus of observers though. If Pakistan can force its way through the US blockade with a naval escort, any country more militarily powerful than Pakistan can do the same. Blockades lose their credibility the moment someone penetrates it without repercussion.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
tankphobia said:
On the topic of economy, the blockade is doing huge damage to Iranian government coffers, something like 25% of the Iranian GDP relies on oil and gas exports. Using the closure of the strait is a weapon of last resort that will have ripple effects on the already struggling economy.
Click to expand...
Weren't you saying one month ago that Iran would be turned into Gaza, meat grinder, annihilation, and carpet bombed cities into forced capitulation? Meanwhile, the reality is Iran has far more economic and political resilience than you are giving it credit for. It hasn't settled for negotiations or return to status quo, regardless of lost oil/gas revenue or relentless air strikes. Trump TACOs before Iran TACOs.
 
T

TPenglake

Junior Member
Registered Member
tankphobia said:
On the topic of economy, the blockade is doing huge damage to Iranian government coffers, something like 25% of the Iranian GDP relies on oil and gas exports. Using the closure of the strait is a weapon of last resort that will have ripple effects on the already struggling economy.
Click to expand...
Since when was the post-revolution Iran economy never a basket case and its people never living on scarcity? This is what confuses me about using the argument that "Iran's economy can't hold on any longer" as a reasoning for why they're likely to surrender. On top of what I said, there is a thing called a wartime economy where people whether they like it or not are forced to put up with increased scarcity and not least if they're the ones being attacked. Iran has enough resources to subsist its population on top of the fact that its getting a lot of humanitarian aid from neighboring countries as well as China.

Its not a pretty life, but they're at war it is what it is whether they like it or not. Not like other countries that are at peace, expect their politicians to deliver conditions commensurate to peace, and when their resources start dwindling they start voting at the ballot box accordingly.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
NorthKimBestKim said:
They didn't, but the whole country is cratered into dust anyway and set back to 17th century, so that is a win for the U.S. simply by the fact that Afghanistan is nothing and is totally cratered.

These days, it seems that the only thing Taliban is good for, is to terrorize own women and being pro-Hindutva / pro-Modi cucks against Pakistan. Attacking Pakistan from time to time.

When you factor all this in, it really is not much of a "win" for Afghanistan.

If the U.S. Empire succeed to continue beating Iran further and further back, that is a success. Iran hits U.S. once, U.S. hits 10 times harder, and harder, and the point in geopolitics is to deny the enemy to develop into a so-called "threat".

As long as the U.S. is able to beat down Iran into the situation where Iran no longer is considered a "threat", such as having its universities, STEM scienticts, infrastructure and military decimated, that is a win for the U.S.

The point is: Syria looked much better in 2010 than now in 2026, even if Assad had been in power today, the country is smoked.

Same goes for Libya. Look at them today, totally wasted. Lets say that Gaddafi was alive. Libya today in 2026, is still much more destroyed compared to 2010.

In essence, it's not important if Iran still stands - what matters is to destroy and reduce any current and future "potential" Iran might have.
That is very easy to do, since Russia and PRC aren't doing shit to help Iran in a sufficient way anyway. That is why Empire (almost) always wins.

It's been very long time since the Imperial forces have experiences lots of American corpses floating around in the Western Pacific, including Korea and Vietnam which are the only two places the Empire had to take massive and considerable losses, but the Empire is still standing.

One cannot win against Empire but sitting and just "do nothing" BS. Because as of 2026, the list of countries that are able to resist has truly been shortened considerably.

I don't know if you remember the video from General Clark 25 years ago. They had a nice list of countries that must be smoked, before then move against Russia, PRC and DPRK in some way or another, and Iran is the last stand before that happens.

Sure, there has been some opinions expressed that Turkey, Algeria and Pakistan need to be destroyed as well, but either way, the Empire is working 24 / 7. It never rests, it plans, and it executes its Imperial plans. Taking out one by one. And it is easy to take out one by one, since Russia and PRC are just sitting and looking. Russia is already busy as it is against Imperial NATO forces, and PRC should be able to do much more, but they don't want to, and the whole world is watching right now, so we will see if it will help anyone to just sit and watch "forever". Until they come and knock on PRC' door again, for 2nd round of Century of Humiliation 2.0 downloading. They always come as a coalition, in a group. Never alone.

I guess one cannot expect much of someone who is also looking at the civil war in Myanmar and doing nothing about that either for the most part.
Click to expand...
Seeing this as USA vs Iran is tunnel-vision. Better question is, if the US beats Iran into a country that echoes Pakistan's "We can eat grass but must have the nuke," is it a victory? Best question is, if the US exhausts itself beating Iran, while China flies ahead and unseats American power dominance, is it a victory? You know how the Chinese saying goes: "The mantis targets the cicada, but the bird follows from behind."
 
B

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
TPenglake said:
Since when was the post-revolution Iran economy never a basket case and its people never living on scarcity? This is what confuses me about using the argument that "Iran's economy can't hold on any longer" as a reasoning for why they're likely to surrender. On top of what I said, there is a thing called a wartime economy where people whether they like it or not are forced to put up with increased scarcity and not least if they're the ones being attacked. Iran has enough resources to subsist its population on top of the fact that its getting a lot of humanitarian aid from neighboring countries as well as China.

Its not a pretty life, but they're at war it is what it is whether they like it or not. Not like other countries that are at peace, expect their politicians to deliver conditions commensurate to peace, and when their resources start dwindling they start voting at the ballot box accordingly.
Click to expand...

The amount of humanitarian aid coming from Russia and China are huge. Anyone has the list of humanitarian aid in respect to how much each country has provided in tons?
 
Lnk111229

Lnk111229

Junior Member
Registered Member
shiftenter said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2045723639140540520



https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2045756503869587586

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2045724852468785343

Is it a regular comms check on the triad or are we going to witness history?
Click to expand...
Got it from Iran war news thread. I know this maybe serious threat but can't help to remember time when Putin shuffle Russia mobile ICBM fleet. It give similar vibe tho. A warning for any bystander who try dip the hand into hornet nest. But also similar for Russia how long it scared tactics lasts? Because we already know EU and US still help Ukraine nonetheless and in this case Russia and China will help Iran eventually.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top