2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

solarz said:

On the contrary, where in most things in life you can play it safe by avoiding risks, war is the one area where playing it safe could have disastrous consequences. Imagine if China played it safe and never entered the Korean War.

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You gave a very inappropriate example: the Korean Peninsula was a springboard for invading China, a strategic location that China would never relinquish under any circumstances. While participating in the Korean War was extremely risky, China had no other choice.
Participating in the Korean War was the most prudent decision China ever made.

solarz said:

Tell that to the PLA. They certainly didn’t think those incidents were trivial or frivolous. In fact, those humiliations were instrumental in driving the modernization and reforms that made the PLA what it is today.

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No, long term planning, intelligent resource allocation, sustained rapid growth in state, industrial, and technological capacity while having a well defined mission is what made the PLA what it is today. Or would you suggest that if those incidents did not occur, the PLA today would be somehow a less capable force?

Wasting too much digital ink.

China is not the most pressured here. All US allies/puppets/vassals and other "neutral" countries are much more affected

Play smart, not work hard. China should sit back, watch while whole Asian continent suffers, and when all these countries cannot handle it anymore and they face imminent economic collapse, they will eventually come knocking at China's door and beg for help. At that point, a stable, predictable, and concerned about others China, will very reluctantly gather an armada of naval ships of all begging countries and send a single naval ship as it's representative somewhere in the middle of that

Then you run a big convoy consisting of 10+ countries to break the US blockade and then pay Iran's fee to pass as everybody knows that Iran has nothing to lose any more.
If at that point US wants to make enemies of the entire world and stand against Asia, China would laugh all the way to the bank.

Supreme art of strategy is not to do proactive moves to help others, but to prepare and establish reserves so by the time something happens, you are the least affected, and wait till all others come and beg you to do anything and thus negotiate hard with them

Lavrov says Russia can 'compensate' for China's resource gap from Iran war:​

By AFP
Apr 15, 2026

BEIJING — Russia's foreign minister said that his country could make up for China's energy shortages as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is choked by the US-Israeli war with Iran, Russian state media reported Wednesday.

"Russia can, without a doubt, compensate for the shortfall in resources that has arisen" for China and "other countries that are interested in working with us" Sergei Lavrov said at a news conference in Beijing in response to a question about the Hormuz blockage.

He also said that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China in the first half of the year, Moscow's state media reported.

solarz said:

I have to disagree with this. Given that the US has declared a blockade on the Hormuz Strait and threatening to block or detain Chinese ships, NOT responding militarily would be a sign of weakness for Trump to further encroach on Chinese interests.

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You are falling into the west’s logical fallacy trap in thinking that the only appropriate response to such a blockade is to use your own military force.

China has so many other options to take and cards to play before it even needs to consider the military option. Jumping straight to the last resort isn’t the show of strength you think it is.

solarz said:

This is in fact the perfect opportunity for China to use its navy as a deterrence, because any belligerence by US forces would spell certain doom for their Middle East venture.

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That right there is a perfect example of how not to use military force. Sending in the military is like drawing a gun during an argument. You must not do it unless you are fully ready, willing and able to use it and accept the consequences of doing that. Drawing a gun purely to intimidate with no will or ability to actually use it is the most likely way to get yourself shot or worse.

solarz said:

If the US attempts an unprovoked attack on Chinese military ships in international waters, it’s basically AR time.

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Ah yes, the most important event for generations and you want to blunder into it because you wanted to throw your weight around needlessly half way around the world?

solarz said:

I’m reminded of this video from Zhang Weiwei:

In the video, he used the phrase 万事俱备. The implication is 只欠东风. In other words, China is just waiting for an opportunity.

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That interpretation is doing China a massive disservice both in terms of the thoroughness of its preparations and the strategic vision of its leaders.

China is ready for AR come hell or high water. If Beijing wants to go, it’s hard to think of any realistic scenario short of nuclear war where it will not succeed, and succeed with minimal cost at that.

China isn’t waiting for an opportunity to go do
AR, as that implies that there are elements outside of its control that it cannot overcome or mitigate, there are none left. It also insultingly implies that China has no restraint and will attack as soon as it is able to.

The reality is that China has been ready for AR for probably over a decade now, and every year that has passed since would have seen the cost of AR drop exponentially to the point where it’s hard for it to realistically drop any lower now. But still China isn’t rushing to go because it’s playing a much grander game for a much bigger prize. Taiwan has long since stopped being the ultimate goal of Chinese military modernisation and strategic planning. It’s basically merely a milestone now, expected to be ticked off rapidly with minimal cost as the PLA advance to its broader goals.

solarz said:

I have to disagree with this. Given that the US has declared a blockade on the Hormuz Strait and threatening to block or detain Chinese ships, NOT responding militarily would be a sign of weakness for Trump to further encroach on Chinese interests.

This is in fact the perfect opportunity for China to use its navy as a deterrence, because any belligerence by US forces would spell certain doom for their Middle East venture.

If the US attempts an unprovoked attack on Chinese military ships in international waters, it’s basically AR time.

I’m reminded of this video from Zhang Weiwei:

In the video, he used the phrase 万事俱备. The implication is 只欠东风. In other words, China is just waiting for an opportunity.

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If they touch a Chinese ship, I say we see how they handle a full rare earth ban first.

China's military is very equipped for fighting and defeating the US in Asia, but not in the middle-east. We are at the first generation of Chinese military designs coming out of the pipelines that are made to outclass their American rivals without the asymmetric advantage of being near Chinese shores bolstered by Chinese artillery. We need 15 more years to complete them and build them out before we have a navy and air force that can confidently challenge the US in a blue-water fight or thousands of miles away from China.

Don't go into this fight because America's become total bullshit and they deserve to be put down; go into this fight because we are fully prepared to win. Right now, the US is much more comfortable fighting in the middle-east than we are. But, we can buckle the US with a full rare earth ban and put them into a fight in which we are very comfortable and they are very uncomfortable.

These are the final years where we have to be careful and fight smart instead of getting in America's face with superior force and just shouting them down whenever they get out of line. We don't wanna f it up in the last stretch.

The only regret is that while Trump accelerated China's overtake of the US, he's not going to be in office for the ultimate fall because that would be a seething cope that would be hilarious to watch. One can only hope he'll still be alive and his son as president will cry to him over what China has done and become.

Okay, I never thought of any of this blockade and counter blockade stuff, because I have been laughing too hard. Haha! Haha!

This war is crazy!

But, if I was forced to make up my mind on what China should to to address this American blockade in that region of the world, a few things come to mind.

1. First, China should wait. To be fair, I thought there was a time limit to this war, and now we do have a ceasefire that is holding up still. So I have go with the same idea that there is a time limit to this blockade. Right now there is no more oil. That will be devastating to Western economies. So a solution is required fast.

2. If China gets really pissed off, then weapons to Iran to blow those mo'fos out of the water, as long as Iran agrees to that.

3. Before that, China probably will announce some inspection routine for any US cargo in the Taiwan Strait. The Americans will get the hint. The Americans are belligerent by nature, still they would not like a three front war, when they already out of ammo. Haha! Haha!

4. Insist on and impress upon both sides that everyone is pissed at both of them, and remarkably, if China says this and others line up to say the same thing, a diplomatic solution is actually possible here. A high oil price will devastate the American economy. The oil shock of 1973, cough cough, no need to state all the reasons for the embargo back then, the shortages and inflation caused by that ushered in a long period of economic futility with stagflation in the United States, that was finally broken by President Reagan who let Fed Chair Paul Vokker do his thing to crush inflation.

5. If it gets out of hand, then start World War III, but not sure if sending PLAN to the Middle East is the right thing to do. If we are going to start World War III, probably better and more useful to have those ships around than aboard.

I wonder if Iran is actually going to ditch Hezbollah for a "peace"treaty. It has been over a week since the ceasefire and with TACO, I would not be surprised that it can be extended while Hezbollah remains in deep combat with Israel

another505 said:

I wonder if Iran is actually going to ditch Hezbollah for a "peace"treaty. It has been over a week since the ceasefire and with TACO, I would not be surprised that it can be extended while Hezbollah remains in deep combat with Israel

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Considering there is no sign of a force draw down by the US in the region but quite the opposite, they will just do their usual perfidous play and launch an assault again the coming days.