2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

abenomics12345 said:

Oh is this you admitting that you're smoking crack in saying that it makes sense to ship crude to China from Iran via rail at volume sufficient to make it matter?

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Oh buddy you're not shipping oil via rail from Iran to China, you're shipping oil via rail from Iran to America, lmao

I will say, the fact that you couldn't even comprehend the idea that 10,000km is the distance from Iran to America via the Bearing Strait after I pointed it out really put all your other delusions about how the real world works into perspective.

Iran to China is the exact same distance as Canada to the US gulf via rail.

taxiya said:

Louis XVI had the same feature in his France, Nicolas II had that feature in his Russia. You should pay visits to them and ask how well the feature worked for them.

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And Cixi/Puyi!

Puss in Boots said:

Is China out of its mind? In the current environment, China is developing steadily while the US is rapidly declining. What's the point of choosing this time to fight a war with the US? There's never a guaranteed victory in war. Don't push yourself to the gambling table and confront a madman unless absolutely necessary!
You're making the same mistake I mentioned earlier, always assuming the enemy is weak. You never consider what would happen if things didn't turn out the way you imagine! This is very similar to Trump's thinking.

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We have interceptor pK rates, dude. 8 Patriots for 1 Iranian missile on average. American carrier individual sortie rates are a tenth of what they achieved during Desert Storm. Only 425 of 2300 JASSM-ER remain. You know, the missile that the Americans were circlejerking the Rapid Dragon over? AN/FPS-132 destroyed, multiple AN/TPY-2 destroyed, E-3 Sentry destroyed, F-35 probable kill.

What do you think would happen against China, a country with an order of magnitude greater fires bandwidth, magazine depth and an actually capable air force?

Puss in Boots said:

As you said, if the US military intercepts Chinese warships, what can the Chinese navy do? Will the Chinese warships open fire?
1. The US is currently eager to drag China into the quagmire of the Middle East!
2. The US has sufficient confidence in its military capabilities in the Middle East!
3. The US has accepted the fact that it will be surpassed by China in peacetime! Therefore, they are willing to use war to change the current situation!
When speculating about the other side's behavior, you often assume that the other side dares not engage in a real battle with you, which is a very wrong idea. If the United States wants to start a war with you, how should you respond?

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If the United States wants to start a war with China, then right now is the worse time for them to do it. If they are so dumb as to do it anyway, then they are going to lose both the Middle East and the West Pacific at the same time.

GZDRefugee said:

We have interceptor pK rates, dude. 8 Patriots for 1 Iranian missile on average. American carrier individual sortie rates are a tenth of what they achieved during Desert Storm. Only 425 of 2300 JASSM-ER remain. You know, the missile that the Americans were circlejerking the Rapid Dragon over? AN/FPS-132 destroyed, multiple AN/TPY-2 destroyed, E-3 Sentry destroyed, F-35 probable kill.

What do you think would happen against China, a country with an order of magnitude greater fires bandwidth, magazine depth and an actually capable air force?

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We all know that China may currently have some advantages in these areas, but this does not mean that a full-scale hot war with the United States is risk-free! I don't even want to bring up the issue of nuclear weapons anymore!
"Subduing the enemy without fighting" is the best war strategy. Dragging the war into a war of conquest and territorial expansion would be an extremely flawed strategy.
China now has the opportunity to defeat the United States without using force, so why choose to gamble with it? Do they think all their soldiers are Astartes? Do they think China has already built the "Golden Dome" of Trump's dreams?
Don't treat war like a game where you can just start over if you lose. Countless countries throughout history have declined because of wars; China has no need to make such a basic mistake.

If the United States wants to start a war with China, then right now is the worse time for them to do it. If they are so dumb as to do it anyway, then they are going to lose both the Middle East and the West Pacific at the same time.

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There is rumor 055 destroyer in middle east. real or fake?

GZDRefugee said:

What do you think would happen against China, a country with an order of magnitude greater fires bandwidth, magazine depth and an actually capable air force?

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As long as time is on China's side, it is in China's interests to delay as long as possible. You only get one shot at overturning the existing world order, with countries like Germany and Japan serving as chilling reminders of the consequences of failure. Germany and Japan found themselves in a situation where time was not on their side (twice in the case of Germany), found themselves boxed in across both time and space, and were forced to pursue war under unfavorable conditions, ultimately leading to the destruction and subjugation of their nations. On the other hand, the US and USSR did have time on their side, delayed their entry into the war as much as possible, ultimately emerging as the two biggest winners.

iewgnem said:

Oh buddy you're not shipping oil via rail from Iran to China, you're shipping oil via rail from Iran to America, lmao

I will say, the fact that you couldn't even comprehend the idea that 10,000km is the distance from Iran to America via the Bearing Strait after I pointed it out really put all your other delusions about how the real world works into perspective.

Iran to China is the exact same distance as Canada to the US gulf via rail.

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Unfortunately the rail lines from Iran just don't have the capacity to make a difference, either for China or Iran.

It looks like ~0.1 mbpd, compared to Chinese imports of 10 mbpd

Puss in Boots said:

We all know that China may currently have some advantages in these areas, but this does not mean that a full-scale hot war with the United States is risk-free! I don't even want to bring up the issue of nuclear weapons anymore!
"Subduing the enemy without fighting" is the best war strategy. Dragging the war into a war of conquest and territorial expansion would be an extremely flawed strategy.
China now has the opportunity to defeat the United States without using force, so why choose to gamble with it? Do they think all their soldiers are Astartes? Do they think China has already built the "Golden Dome" of Trump's dreams?
Don't treat war like a game where you can just start over if you lose. Countless countries throughout history have declined because of wars; China has no need to make such a basic mistake.

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That's crazy. China had more balls back in 1950 than they do today. You think the PVA was afraid of getting nuked when they handed the US the longest retreat in their military history to them?

THAAD, and by extension American ballistic missile defense, is already attrited. Iran already demonstrated the US cannot protect their early warning sensors. America's nuclear defenses are actually spotty right now and China is in the best position it's ever been in with respect to nuclear parity.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

As long as time is on China's side, it is in China's interests to delay as long as possible. You only get one shot at overturning the existing world order, with countries like Germany and Japan serving as chilling reminders of the consequences of failure. Germany and Japan found themselves in a situation where time was not on their side (twice in the case of Germany), found themselves boxed in across both time and space, and were forced to pursue war under unfavorable conditions, ultimately leading to the destruction and subjugation of their nations. On the other hand, the US and USSR did have time on their side, delayed their entry into the war as much as possible, ultimately emerging as the two biggest winners.

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My premise is that the US will not respond to Chinese naval escort of its merchant shipping through the Hormuz. I think it's worthwhile to openly challenge the blockade to demonstrate to the world that the US is a paper tiger. China gets its oil and the US is powerless to stop it. Who knows, the humiliation might bait the US into committing to a ground invasion.

Puss in Boots said:

As you said, if the US military intercepts Chinese warships, what can the Chinese navy do? Will the Chinese warships open fire?
1. The US is currently eager to drag China into the quagmire of the Middle East!
2. The US has sufficient confidence in its military capabilities in the Middle East!
3. The US has accepted the fact that it will be surpassed by China in peacetime! Therefore, they are willing to use war to change the current situation!
When speculating about the other side's behavior, you often assume that the other side dares not engage in a real battle with you, which is a very wrong idea. If the United States wants to start a war with you, how should you respond?

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At first probably similar to South China Sea. If intercepted they will try to do defiant and close approach to US warships to scare US sailors to spice up the situation a little, the US would call those "unsafe". If the US open fire then the situation could escalate pretty bad and Iran would be the least of the problems. China is likely to have Song Class submarines there.