If it was so, Pakistan would not wait for Iran to get nuked first. So, I highly doubt it. It's more likely Pakistan shared some nuclear tech with Iran.
2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
Trump left 2 years of his term. Will he turn his attention to bullying Cuba? Taking on Canada or Greenland would definitely much easier then taking over Iran. Since he has kick and injured his foot on the Iranian hot plate. Attention might turn elsewhere. I read from losses of this Iranian misadventure probably reach 10 billions, the first 2 weeks reach 4 billions, and continuation with bombardment and counter bombardment, troop losses, injuries, transport, further bases, ships, planes. The 10 billions lost is reasonable projection. This is military, the dual civilians side of things like refinery, data center, desalination plants, power plants, chemical plants etc...probably another 10 billions plus all the reputational losses, influence losses, transportation, troop movements, extra payments this and that and so on could reach staggering 30 billions. Would US has enough strength and influence to take over greenland now? In fact, taking over Canada as their 51st state could have been much easier then Iran......wrong bet. Should have taken the lwo hanging fruit first and should even use much of the military force. I predict US military force probably lost 1/3 of it's capability overall out of this Iran war. 2 carriers damage, 1 old equipment probably past their expiry date still has to pulls out and move around. A lot of old ships. Stealth, SIGINT exposure and China has capture much needed info, the entire SIGINT structure has to be rebuilt. It's basically US force exposing and showing their undewears in front of the Chinese in this war...very much info has been collected and exposed. Their capabilities, drones, stealth planes, equipments, command chain communication and so on......that information are invaluable for the Chinese.
CBS News says Trump agreed that Lebanon was part of the ceasefire.
Immediately afterwards, the US government is saying Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire.
But now, the US is trying to "craft" a Lebanon ceasefire
Sources below
cbsnews.com/news/lebanon-israel-ceasefire-talks-us-washington
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgk0edynpmzo
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Remember that the US has inordinate leverage over Israel, if they ever choose to use this.
Republican President Ronald Reagan previously threatened to cut off Israel, because Israel was perpetrating a "holocaust" in Lebanon, as Reagan called it.
The result was Israel folding straight away.
Granted, this was decades ago, but Israel today is still critically reliant on the USA.
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So it's clear now that Trump never intended for the ceasefire to include Lebanon.
That implies Trump agreed to Iran's 10 negotiating points, presumably out of desperation (and never took them seriously) because he still thinks the USA holds more cards and also because the next level of escalation would be a disaster for him. The possibilities would be a protracted ground war in Iran or the destruction of all oil/gas/water/energy facilities in the Middle East, which would likely result in a global depression which will be blamed on Trump and the USA.
Even if Trump never intended for Lebanon to part of the ceasefire, nor to negotiate in good faith, I think there is now a lot more pressure on him to do so.
1. Now we have Iran, Pakistan, France, UK, Spain and Australia publicly saying Lebanon was or should be part of the ceasefire.
2. The oil shortages will really start hitting the world in the coming weeks.
3. Trump threatened that Iran's "whole civilisation will die tonight", implying a genocide via mass usage of nuclear weapons.
The former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei issued a fatwah against developing nuclear weapons, and at that time, it was in the interest of every party that Iran remains non-nuclear.
Now, things have changed, as Trump has threatened to erase Persian civilization, and Iran has proven real demonstrated leverage and ability to withstand US/Israeli combined assault. Iran is probably racing to a nuclear weapon right now, but WOULD LIKE TO HAVE an implicit nuclear umbrella extended to it in the meanwhile before it conducts a nuclear test.
That is the ONLY security guarantee that Pakistan (and by extension China) could provide it ON TOP OF what Iran already has demonstrated, that could compel Iran to agree to a ceasefire agreement at this time where it has leverage.
Now, things have changed, as Trump has threatened to erase Persian civilization, and Iran has proven real demonstrated leverage and ability to withstand US/Israeli combined assault. Iran is probably racing to a nuclear weapon right now, but WOULD LIKE TO HAVE an implicit nuclear umbrella extended to it in the meanwhile before it conducts a nuclear test.
That is the ONLY security guarantee that Pakistan (and by extension China) could provide it ON TOP OF what Iran already has demonstrated, that could compel Iran to agree to a ceasefire agreement at this time where it has leverage.
so the top Iranian leadership really was afraid their country was about to get nuked that is why they entered in this fake ceasefire while Lebanon get's torn to shreds.
The Iranian president's son writes about the night of fear of the nuclear bomb and the truce.
Since the outbreak of the war, Yousef Pezeshkian has been diligently publishing daily entries on his Telegram channel, documenting the details of each day from his own perspective.
However, the entry he published on the evening of Thursday, April 9, 2026, about "Tuesday, April 7 (18 Farvardin)... the 39th day of the war," resonated differently. What drew attention was not its daily nature, but rather its description of the atmosphere at a meeting with several members of the government. He stated that no one present knew for certain whether negotiations were underway, and that some attendees were so worried about something that might happen the following morning that they demanded the president address the nation that very night.
Then he added the most important statement: "No one was saying that, but I suspect they were afraid that the United States would resort to the nuclear bomb."
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people talk about reformists and how harmful they have been to Iran. I would say the biggest most harmful reformist to Iran was the now deceased Ali Khamenei.
his disastrous fatwa forbidding Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was what put Iran in this terrible situation in the first place.
The Iranian president's son writes about the night of fear of the nuclear bomb and the truce.
Since the outbreak of the war, Yousef Pezeshkian has been diligently publishing daily entries on his Telegram channel, documenting the details of each day from his own perspective.
However, the entry he published on the evening of Thursday, April 9, 2026, about "Tuesday, April 7 (18 Farvardin)... the 39th day of the war," resonated differently. What drew attention was not its daily nature, but rather its description of the atmosphere at a meeting with several members of the government. He stated that no one present knew for certain whether negotiations were underway, and that some attendees were so worried about something that might happen the following morning that they demanded the president address the nation that very night.
Then he added the most important statement: "No one was saying that, but I suspect they were afraid that the United States would resort to the nuclear bomb."
________________________________________
people talk about reformists and how harmful they have been to Iran. I would say the biggest most harmful reformist to Iran was the now deceased Ali Khamenei.
his disastrous fatwa forbidding Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was what put Iran in this terrible situation in the first place.
Yes, the fatwa severely slowed down Iran's ability to produce a bomb. But at that time it was already too late to acquire a real deterrent force. To do this, it is necessary to produce the entire system for its use, i.e. a sufficient number and means for its use. This means carriers, such as aircraft and missiles so that the aircraft can launch the missile from a sufficient distance, and it is absolutely necessary to obtain carriers capable of hitting the enemy's territory, i.e. the USA. Such a minimum force is represented today by North Korea's arsenal of about 50 warheads (which appears in the sources) along with missiles and ships and soon submarines. Iran still lacks a lot of development and testing.
So, even if they had the bomb today (i.e. in a militarily usable form), it probably wouldn't help them today.
So, even if they had the bomb today (i.e. in a militarily usable form), it probably wouldn't help them today.
Who the "President" Son? That Pereveshkian dude is it? He is the most pro-western of the Iranian leader so far and I wouldn't go so far to says he is the most prime suspect of the head of the Spying and Internal Head Traitors Coalition, I'm sure his son enjoys playing the Playstation and watching Marvel Avengers superhero and peed his pants in awe of Americans might. This the guy that will first turns around and knife you in the back at the first opportunity they can runs away