2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

Blitzo said:

You were the one who used emotionally charged terms like betrayal to begin with, and making it sound like the US was planning to "betray" the agreement.

All I'm saying is that Trump probably doesn't think he's betraying anyone, and to be honest if their intent is to try to apply pressure tactics on Iran to get them to back down in negotiations and then to resume bombing if Iran doesn't concede.... well that's a pretty reasonable tactic and strategy, and something we've seen in past wars and negotiations during conflicts.

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Again who cares what Trump thinks is right or not? He has exactly zero moral fiber in his body. Normal countries would consider an agreed upon ceasefire within a period as a promise, unilateral breaking of ceasefire is considered a betrayal. If you really dislike the word "betrayal" perfidy is also fine.

I'd like to not dwell on the wording, as I said I predict US will break the ceasefire and conduct some sort of sneak attack, lets wait and see.

Edit: So we're pass the misunderstanding theory at least I hope?

Trump has already switched up the rhetoric and has started to reference the "15 points" surrender deal. (as well as interference in Hormuz with a 'joint venture'???, talks of tariffs on weapons trade, no enrichment and removal of uranium)
Israeli violation of the ceasefire in Lebanon, even after the assertion that Lebanon is included, has already jepordized the Friday summit.
UAE's strikes on Iran shows the US isn't really bothered with leashing its vassals for the ceasefire period.

I think people need to wait a day or two before posting up a storm about strategic victories/losses and what not.

I swear, if all Trump did here was swindle the Iranians into publicly signaling approval, only to dump oil 20 percent, prop the stock market, and buy himself breathing room for nothing, then this will age very badly.

Hopefully, oil rips back above the old levels soon, with Hormuz still closed, the war still escalating, and ceasefires collapsing fast enough that the West does not get time to refill reserves.

But it does raise a real issue. Will Iran start making a huge mistake by allowing this to remain a constant, slow-motion disaster, from now on, instead of ending it properly once and for all?

It also increasingly looks like Israel and the UAE coordinated an attack against this whole arrangement.

And that supposed Pakistan meeting, assuming it even happens, should expose a lot.

At this point, it feels like any durable settlement would still require Iran to put more firepower and a broader menu of targets on the UAE and Israel.

And the Saudi pipeline hit is odd timing. Either the IRGC itself is not unified behind this ceasefire, or it was another Israeli false flag operation.

I honestly don't know what is happening anymore? I guess we have a ceasefire, but outside of that no agreement on a path forward after the two weeks are up?

The whole ceasefire is BS, as it always was from the first second. Like I said yesterday, it's not possible to have any kind of diplomacy with someone who wants to exterminate you. The line has been crossed long time ago.

Imagine this: You're like Iran (old civilization) and at the other table of the so-called "negotiation are two genocidal, nuclear-armed identities, and one of these two is going to celebrate it's 250-year-old existence on 4th July after exterminating all the original, Native Americans, and the other one is exterminating parts of Lebanon and the Palestinian people. And apparently, Iran has to negotiate with those two "countries".

None of this would have happened if Iran had nukes, but they don't, and if Iran doesn't get enough assistance to repell this aggression, then this aggression will continue against Iran and other countries as well.

Trump was embolded by the Venezuela's submission, and once again: let's not forget that this sick Orange thing actually kidnapped a president of a sovereign country and has stolen their oil. This ALL happened without Venezuela barely firing a bullet.

Why should Iran negotiate with someone who bombs you anyway, and wants to steal your oil anyway, even if Iran hadn't fired one single bullet.

Russia and PRC cannot allow Iran to fall, and Pakistan is going to get lots of problems as well if Iran falls.

The fact that BRICS and SCO members, which Iran is member of both organisations, are so easely targeted ruins any attempt to create a true non-Nazi, non-Zio, non-Western alternative for the people in this world.

Let's see how this so-called "ceasefire" develops, but either way, I don't see any benefits for Iran.

Either "you" learn the Empire a lesson, or the Empire will keep adding to the list of the countries they have raped since early 1990s, which is when Empire's new-colonial era started again under pretext of "neo-liberal rule-based order".

The Birth of a new Lord of the Middle East
Re-order of military ranking and power in the world now. 5 Criteria and ratings behind. After this war, Iran has really move up to the mid tier power ranking and show the world their capabilities. Although most countries in the mid tier or even upper mid tier are nothing by themselves, usually they have some backers behind from the top tier. Take these opinion with caveats, sometimes the power, geographic or strategic positions plays a role in their power ranking.

Iran - What an outstanding performance, withstand the assault from a Top Tier country US + another Israel too and makes them pay a price and back down.
Ukraine - Another outstanding performance, after 4 years against another Top Tier country Russia, of course with many backing behind mainly the EU.

Of course, nowadays most consequential wars are usually proxy wars (case in point Ukraine and Iran)

Wars without backers behind usually capitulate quickly, take example Venezuela (Russia and China couldn't help due geographic reason) as power gap between Venezuela and USA too big.

Congratulation to Iran, at least in the middle east, it's established and proven it's a force to be reckon with, with lower mid tier strength, with right backers, it's boosted mid mid tier strength and that's enough to be the Lord of the middle east.

Israel wants to be the Lord of the Middle east, but unfortunate, it's geographic position, size, population and with a top tier backer is not enough to hold this role.

Top Tier
1. China (19 pts)
- Nuclear state - 4/5
- Weapon varieties and level of sophistications (land, sea, air) - 5/5
- Propriety Navigation system and means of delivery - 5/5
- Industrial capacity - 5/5 (China ahead due better industrial capacity)

2. USA (19)
- Nuclear state - 5/5
- Weapon varieties and level of sophistications (land, sea, air) - 5/5
- Propriety Navigation system and means of delivery - 5/5
- Industrial capacity - 4/5

3. Russia (14)
- Nuclear state - 5/5
- Weapon varieties and level of sophistications (land, sea, air) - 3/5
- Propriety Navigation system and means of delivery - 3/5
- Industrial capacity - 3/5

Upper Mid Tier
4.Tied France & UK (11)
- Nuclear state - 3/5
- Weapon varieties and level of sophistications (land, sea, air) - 3/5
- Propriety Navigation system and means of delivery - 3/5
- Industrial capacity - 2/5

Mid Mid Tier
5.Tied Germany & Japan (9)
- Nuclear state - 0/5
- Weapon varieties and level of sophistications (land, sea, air) - 3/5
- Propriety Navigation system and means of delivery - 3/5
- Industrial capacity - 3/5 (Even without nuclear, the industrial capacity a large factor)

Lower Mid Tier
- Ukraine, Iran, Pakistan, India, Poland, Italy, Turkey, Brazil.....

NorthKimBestKim said:

The whole ceasefire is BS, as it always was from the first second. Like I said yesterday, it's not possible to have any kind of diplomacy with someone who wants to exterminate you. The line has been crossed long time ago.

Imagine this: You're like Iran (old civilization) and at the other table of the so-called "negotiation are two genocidal, nuclear-armed identities, and one of these two is going to celebrate it's 250-year-old existence on 4th July after exterminating all the original, Native Americans, and the other one is exterminating parts of Lebanon and the Palestinian people. And apparently, Iran has to negotiate with those two "countries".

None of this would have happened if Iran had nukes, but they don't, and if Iran doesn't get enough assistance to repell this aggression, then this aggression will continue against Iran and other countries as well.

Trump was embolded by the Venezuela's submission, and once again: let's not forget that this sick Orange thing actually kidnapped a president of a sovereign country and has stolen their oil. This ALL happened without Venezuela barely firing a bullet.

Why should Iran negotiate with someone who bombs you anyway, and wants to steal your oil anyway, even if Iran hadn't fired one single bullet.

Russia and PRC cannot allow Iran to fall, and Pakistan is going to get lots of problems as well if Iran falls.

The fact that BRICS and SCO members, which Iran is member of both organisations, are so easely targeted ruins any attempt to create a true non-Nazi, non-Zio, non-Western alternative for the people in this world.

Let's see how this so-called "ceasefire" develops, but either way, I don't see any benefits for Iran.

Either "you" learn the Empire a lesson, or the Empire will keep adding to the list of the countries they have raped since early 1990s, which is when Empire's new-colonial era started again under pretext of "neo-liberal rule-based order".

Click to expand...

I'd say it is not entirely BS from Iran's perspective. I believe US will not honor the agreement and will try some shenanigan's, but Iran also has the opportunity to do something in this period. They can dig in, import as much equipment's and supplies as possible, re-establish line of communication and command with dispersed IRGC units, deploy decoys...etc. And when the war inevitably re-start they'll be in a better position.

Also, getting Trump to agree to base the negotiation on Iran's 10 point proposal is a diplomatic victory even if Trump is just feigning it.

Iran fell for it again
this was a fake deal so they can destroy lebanon then focus on iran without worrying about attacks from lebanon. and of course iran fell for it, they are finished now

ForcedTrend said:

Iran fell for it again
this was a fake deal so they can destroy lebanon then focus on iran without worrying about attacks from lebanon. and of course iran fell for it, they are finished now

Click to expand...

Then Iran will shoot only Israel, strait open and no further attack on USA forces.

So , what will Israel doing in that siutuation ?

ForcedTrend said:

Iran fell for it again
this was a fake deal so they can destroy lebanon then focus on iran without worrying about attacks from lebanon. and of course iran fell for it, they are finished now

Click to expand...

This fake ceasefire is a disaster for Iran and its allies. Everytime Iran gets some leverage they squander it. Why China even bothered to force Iran to negotiate is baffling. Now people are blaming China. Don’t stop for fake ceasefires. Russians fell for it with Ukraine in the Minsk agreements. West simply can’t be trusted whatsoever.