2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

It seems increasingly obvious that the "ceasefire" was simply about giving Donnie an off-ramp so he didn't have to follow through on his threats to do war crimes. Especially considering the Pakistan PM's X post was clearly drafted by US.
Israel and UAE seem intent on continuing the war and so of course Iran will too.

Maikeru said:

It seems increasingly obvious that the "ceasefire" was simply about giving Donnie an off-ramp so he didn't have to follow through on his threats to do war crimes. Especially considering the Pakistan PM's X post was clearly drafted by US.
Israel and UAE seem intent on continuing the war and so of course Iran will too.

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I think so very much. Trump had opened his mouth wayyy too wide and he's not a guy to admit it. At the beginning of this conflict, I faulted the US for failing a Sun Tzu principle, which is to leave a desperate enemy with a way out rather than force a battle with his back to the river. This mistake caused Iran to transform into a fearsome military country rather than one that wanted to negotiate everything without truly building the deterrent it needs.

Now, the shoe seems to be on the other foot. Donnie is extremely desperate to not look like a loser and he's also extremely dangerous with the American military assets he commands. He needs a way out rather than to be forced into doing something insane. I think this might have been China's gentle reminder to Iran to respect Sun Tzu even if Donnie doesn't deserve any.

Nearly a thousand dead and wounded... Israel launches an unprecedented attack on Lebanon

The unprecedented Israeli bombardment across Lebanon since dawn on Wednesday has killed at least 112 people and injured 837 others, according to the latest tally announced by the Lebanese Ministry of Health.

The Israeli army had announced earlier that it had carried out the most violent attack on Lebanon since the start of the war, targeting more than 100 sites in 10 minutes.


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so Israel killed and wounded a thousand civilians within 10 minutes.. and keep in mind this is the nation that controls America...

let us see how the Republicans perform in the upcoming elections. if the Republican party doesn't get crushed in the midterms then America is cooked.

ALEX KRAINER.​

Quite good.

Nice summary of the drivers of war .

Ceasefire over, just as I predicted.

Thanks Obama!

So what is the end state here? Just total destruction of Iranian, Israeli and Gulf states infrastructure followed by a massive global recession?

SlothmanAllen said:

So what is the end state here? Just total destruction of Iranian, Israeli and Gulf states infrastructure followed by a massive global recession?

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nothing happened so far.. ceasefire still intact.

sunnymaxi said:

nothing happened so far.. ceasefire still intact.

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Intact? There is no ceasefire currently. Some gulf states launched an attack on Iran. Iran attacked them. The strait is closed. Israel launched a massive strike against Lebanese civilian targets. The dead and wounded has now reached 1500 in lebanon in that 10 minute strike.

Iran said they are prepairing a military response that would make Israel regret what it did. So far there is nothing. Either they are preparing their forces to launch a massive attack on Israel which is taking time or they have chickened out and are waiting to see if Israel would launch any further attacks on Lebanon and if no further strikes on Lebanon happen Iran may decide not to retaliate.

Iran is saying the Pakistanis told them Lebanon was included in the ceasefire. the US is saying no Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire. So either the Pakistanis lied to Iran or the US lied to Pakistan.

Ofcourse personally I think negotiations are BS but if negotiations/ceasefire does happen then Pakistan is not a reliable mediator. Heck any random western European country except Britain would probably be a better mediator.

Iranian reformists were negotiating with Trump team and basically caved. Now Iran has lost the initiative and Israel is destroying Lebanon. These reformists are the biggest threat to Iran. Whenever the US lose momentum they ask for a fake ceasefire. Iran fell for it again.

PandaAI said:

Iranian reformists were negotiating with Trump team and basically caved. Now Iran has lost the initiative and Israel is destroying Lebanon. These reformists are the biggest threat to Iran. Whenever the US lose momentum they ask for a fake ceasefire. Iran fell for it again.

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How is the strike on Lebanon related to the ceasefire? Israel could have done it without any ceasefire and it would be the same that Iran has never stopped hitting Israel with missiles for any ceasefire. And what did the strike on Lebanon achieve strategically? It seems to be completely on civilian targets so it's not like it took out a bunch of Hezbollah by surprise. Probably made more Lebanese want to join Hezbollah. The fight is still on just like without any ceasefire and also, I heard it was China that nudged it, not some reformists. I've a lot more faith in that.