2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

mat

New Member
Registered Member
I am a bit concerned about the so called deal. If the straight is open, then what is to prevent the Americans from running the clock out on negotiations? The Iranian economy is still sanctioned so the Iranians well be back where they were back in February i.e. no leverage. As long as the straight was closed, the status quo was advantageous to Iran. This is also advantageous for Israel. Sure, they maybe wouldn't be allowed to strike Lebanon (I wouldn't bet on that) but Iran will be back on the back foot.

Essentially, it seems to me the world economy gets a reprieve but whether Iran can get a reprieve or not is going to be decided in future negotiations. That sounds dumb af.
 

Dante80

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am a bit concerned about the so called deal. If the straight is open, then what is to prevent the Americans from running the clock out on negotiations? The Iranian economy is still sanctioned so the Iranians well be back where they were back in February i.e. no leverage. As long as the straight was closed, the status quo was advantageous to Iran. This is also advantageous for Israel. Sure, they maybe wouldn't be allowed to strike Lebanon (I wouldn't bet on that) but Iran will be back on the back foot.
According to Trump, the strait opens on friday, after the Iranians have already seen concessions. Read the previous post.
 

another505

Junior Member
Registered Member
⭕️ Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi:

The immediate and permanent end to the war and military operations on various fronts, including Lebanon, will be announced, starting tonight

From tonight, the end of the US naval blockade against Iran will begin

“The enemy launched this war to achieve its own objectives, but it failed on every front, while the Islamic Republic of Iran achieved major victories.

We have ensured that all of Iran’s key demands and positions are reflected in the draft memorandum of understanding.

Once the agreement is formally signed, the full text will be released publicly. Even before the signing, we will use the news media to explain the contents of the memorandum and outline what Iran has achieved through the negotiations.”

“Some of the revisions we wanted in the draft agreement were advanced by the developments in Lebanon tonight and by the statements issued by Iran’s armed forces, which helped move the negotiations forward.

Iran’s armed forces were fully prepared to deliver a decisive response.

Trump also took positions critical of the Israeli government, while Hezbollah delivered a firm and decisive response to the Israeli regime’s terrorist attack.

The military strength Iran demonstrated, along with the threats of retaliation that were made, helped finalize the text of the agreement and advance several of the remaining issues that still needed to be resolved.”

“We did not agree to the memorandum of understanding until we had secured the inclusion of all of our final points and demands in the text. The negotiations continued until just one hour ago.”

“Under this MOU, Iran’s armed forces will always keep their finger on the trigger.”

“Iran’s armed forces will remain ready at all times to confront any plots or hostile actions by its enemies.”

“The mediating parties will also be present at the upcoming negotiations.”

“If there are any shortcomings in the implementation of the other side’s commitments, we will take our own appropriate measures in response.”

“The 60-day negotiations will begin only after it has been verified that the United States has fulfilled its commitments.

On Friday, there will be a formal signing ceremony, after which the heads of the two delegations will hold talks to determine the framework for the next phase of negotiations.

By that time, the U.S. commitments regarding ending the war, lifting the blockade, and releasing frozen Iranian assets will be assessed and verified.

The launch of the 60-day negotiations is contingent on the implementation of those U.S. commitments.”

“Yesterday, a Qatari delegation was in Tehran to help finalize the negotiations.

More than 15 hours of talks were held, during which we proposed amendments that were ultimately accepted.

Two immediate steps must take place in the early hours of this morning: first, an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon; and second, the end of the naval blockade.

Our own commitments under the agreement will take effect beginning on Friday.”

“The issues to be negotiated during the 60-day period will include the termination of all sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, both primary and secondary sanctions, as well as the lifting of UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions.

If a final agreement is reached, all sanctions will be lifted.

The second major topic for negotiation during the 60-day period will be the nuclear issue.

Economic reconstruction and development will also be discussed during these talks, and a mechanism for implementing them will be finalized.

Another subject will be establishing a mechanism to monitor and verify that both sides are properly implementing their commitments.”
It seems like Iran gave up on the toll but seeking reparation and sanction relief? I guess reparation is easier to negotiate??
 

mat

New Member
Registered Member
According to Trump, the strait opens on friday, after the Iranians have already seen concessions. Read the previous post.
I thought that was referring to stopping the war in Lebanon and lifting of the US naval blockade. It says negotiations on sanction relief and nuclear issue will follow in the following 60-days. Iran desperately needs sanction relief.

It seems like Iran gave up on the toll but seeking reparation and sanction relief? I guess reparation is easier to negotiate??
Ya but I don't see way the US would give anything to Iran when the status quo is very beneficial to them. Best case scenario Iran will realize this and will be back to blocking the straight in a few weeks.
 

another505

Junior Member
Registered Member
I thought that was referring to stopping the war in Lebanon and lifting of the US naval blockade. It says negotiations on sanction relief and nuclear issue will follow in the following 60-days. Iran desperately needs sanction relief.


Ya but I don't see way the US would give anything to Iran when the status quo is very beneficial to them. Best case scenario Iran will realize this and will be back to blocking the straight in a few weeks.
Oh I am 80 percent certain that the 60 day memorandum will go nowhere.
 

mat

New Member
Registered Member
Oh I am 80 percent certain that the 60 day memorandum will go nowhere.
Oh I agree. But that is bad for Iran if they indeed go ahead and open the straight. If Netanyahu isn't ret***ed he will stop bombing Lebanon because that will give Iran the convenient excuse to refuse to open the straight. But again Netanyahu's interest might not align with Israel's.
 

RobertC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Israel is the pivot to the Strait of Hormuz and its neighborhood's future.

Israel can live with the retreat from Lebanon. It can always come back and finish Lebanon's destruction later.

What Israel cannot live with is a viable Iran as an integrated nation whose future is backed by China, Russia and a UNSC Resolution.

Israel intended to be the Greater Israel regional hegemon and a viable Iran is blocking its path.

Since 1948 Israel has successfully fragmented the social and governance structures, such as they were, of the historical Middle East. Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon are the more obviously affected. More subtlety are the GCC members and Egypt. Divide and conquer was working.

And now Iran has found the strength, moral and military, to resist.

Israel cannot accept this as a religiously and ethnically patchwork nation.

Will Israel turn its violence inwards with societal self-destruction or outwards with its Samson Option?
 

_killuminati_

Captain
Registered Member
Israel is the pivot to the Strait of Hormuz and its neighborhood's future.

Israel can live with the retreat from Lebanon. It can always come back and finish Lebanon's destruction later.

What Israel cannot live with is a viable Iran as an integrated nation whose future is backed by China, Russia and a UNSC Resolution.

Israel intended to be the Greater Israel regional hegemon and a viable Iran is blocking its path.

Since 1948 Israel has successfully fragmented the social and governance structures, such as they were, of the historical Middle East. Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon are the more obviously affected. More subtlety are the GCC members and Egypt. Divide and conquer was working.

And now Iran has found the strength, moral and military, to resist.

Israel cannot accept this as a religiously and ethnically patchwork nation.

Will Israel turn its violence inwards with societal self-destruction or outwards with its Samson Option?
Israel has no reason to retreat from Lebanon. US cannot stop it. It will continue it's war. Iran might attack it again and US can continue bombing Iran with credit taken by Israel.
 

talonn

Junior Member
Registered Member
Israel has no reason to retreat from Lebanon. US cannot stop it. It will continue it's war. Iran might attack it again and US can continue bombing Iran with credit taken by Israel.
If Iran receive the promised 24 billions usd before that happens again, then it's already a big win for them. US can resume the war
 
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